Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, December 5, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-10 Over (80.8%) surge in the L52 games.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-MIL (spread +1.5, total 221.5), LAC-MEM (spread +1.5, total 223.5)
* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 97-63-1 ATS (60.6%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at CHI)
* PORTLAND is 26-27 SU but 36-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+7.5 at DET)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 30-31 SU and 24-37 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-6.5 vs LAL)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 21-7 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two Seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-BOS (o/u at 225.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 51-38 SU and 48-40 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at TOR)
* CHARLOTTE is 139-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-TOR (o/u at 229.5)
* ATLANTA is 126-89 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-ATL (o/u at 237.5)
* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 80-55 SU and 79-55-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over lsat three Seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+11.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON is 117-86 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-HOU (o/u at 221.5)
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-16 SU and 5-17 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at CLE)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 198-252 SU but 255-187-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS (+15.5 at OKC), LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at MEM)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 35-20 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-MEM (o/u at 223.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 SU and 8-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at MIL)
* MILWAUKEE is 20-4 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIL (o/u at 221.5)
* ORLANDO is 106-79 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-ORL (o/u at 241.5)
* PORTLAND is 26-27 SU but 36-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+7.5 at DET)
* PORTLAND is 67-37 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-DET (o/u at 235.5)
* UTAH is 20-6 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-NYK (o/u at 241.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(511) LA LAKERS at (512) BOSTON
* Under the total is 3-0 in the LAL-BOS historic series since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-BOS (o/u at 225.5)
(513) MIAMI at (514) ORLANDO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Heat-Magic divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-ORL (o/u at 241.5)
(515) PORTLAND at (516) DETROIT
* PORTLAND is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five trips to Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+7.5 at DET)
(517) CHARLOTTE at (518) TORONTO
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Hornets-Raptors series at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-TOR (o/u at 229.5)
(519) SAN ANTONIO at (520) CLEVELAND
* SAN ANTONIO is 1-5 SU but 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+4.5 at CLE)
(521) UTAH at (522) NEW YORK
* Home teams are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the UTA-NYK set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-15.5 vs UTA)
* Under the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-NYK (o/u at 241.5)
(523) DENVER at (524) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 11-1 in the last 12 of the Nuggets-Hawks non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-ATL (o/u at 237.5)
* DENVER is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine games with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 at ATL)
(525) PHILADELPHIA at (526) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the PHI-MIL series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at MIL)
(527) PHOENIX at (528) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games versus Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-11.5 vs PHX)
(531) INDIANA at (532) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Pacers-Bulls divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-CHI (o/u at 237.5)
(533) DALLAS at (534) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the DAL-OKC set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+15.5 at OKC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 89-36 SU and 76-48-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 11-41 SU and 20-30-2 ATS (40%) in their last 52 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6.5 vs DEN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-10 Over (80.8%) surge in the last 52 games.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHI-MIL (spread +1.5, total 221.5), LAC-MEM (spread +1.5, total 223.5)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-99 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-186 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 321-241 (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-NYK (spread -15.5, total 241.5), PHX-HOU (spread -11.5, total 221.5), DAL-OKC (spread -15.5, total 229.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 23-14 Over (62.2%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CHI (o/u at 237.5)
Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 21-10 SU and 21-8-2 ATS (72.4%) since early-March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-5.5 vs MIA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 91-59-1 (60.7%) rate (sub-system: 52-26-1 to the Over (66.7%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-BOS (o/u at 225.5)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 97-63-1 ATS (60.6%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+4.5 at CHI)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 315-241 SU but 249-292-15 ATS (46%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): BOSTON (-6.5 vs LAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 356-313 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-DET (o/u at 234.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 314-326 SU and 289-343-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-6.5 at ATL), UTAH (+15.5 at NYK), DALLAS (+15.5 at OKC)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 185-157 SU and 190-142-10 ATS (57.2%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+11.5 at HOU)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 142-25 SU but 71-93-3 ATS (43.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 93-99 SU but 110-80-3 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-4.5 vs IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 68-94-1 ATS (42%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, MILWAUKEE, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DETROIT, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ORL, POR-DET, UTA-NYK, PHI-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-CLE, IND-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising the total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-ORL, UTA-NYK
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). MILWAUKEE +1.5 (+2.5)
MEMPHIS +1.5 (+2.5)
3. LA LAKERS +6.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+3.7)
2. TORONTO -6.5 (+2.4)
3. HOUSTON -10.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +6.5 (+4.5)
2. DALLAS +15.5 (+3.5)
3. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+3.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). TORONTO -6.5 (+1.9)
HOUSTON -10.5 (+1.9)
3. CHICAGO -4.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-TOR OVER 229.5 (+1.7)
2. LAC-MEM OVER 223.5 (+1.6)
3. PHX-HOU OVER 220.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-NYK UNDER 241.5 (-5.8)
2. DEN-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-1.7)
3. MIA-ORL UNDER 241.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +6.5 (+3.0)
2. MILWAUKEE +1.5 (+2.3)
3. PORTLAND +7.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+6.3)
2. HOUSTON -10.5 (+2.0)
3. NEW YORK -15.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-BOS OVER 225.5 (+4.4)
2. LAC-MEM OVER 223.5 (+2.6)
3. SAS-CLE OVER 237.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-ORL UNDER 241.5 (-4.6)
2. DEN-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-3.4)
3. POR-DET UNDER 235.5 (-2.8)
