The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, February 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Under the total is 12-2 in the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 227.5) 

Teams on losing streaks of six games or more playing as divisional underdogs are 8-43 SU and 18-30-3 ATS (37.5%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+18.5 at BOS) 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 137-108 SU and 139-103-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 at DAL)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* CLEVELAND is just 14-16 SU and 8-22 ATS (26.7%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at DET) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in in One Day Rest scenario were 66-51 SU and 63-53 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 at DAL) 

* NEW YORK is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS (11%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trend Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-8.5 at MIL) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 26-8 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* MILWAUKEE is 24-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NYK-MIL (o/u at 219.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 45-8 SU and 37-15-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs DEN) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(555) CLEVELAND at (556) DETROIT
* Under the total is 12-2 in the Cavs-Pistons divisional rivalry since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-DET (o/u at 227.5) 

(557) BROOKLYN at (558) BOSTON
* Under the total has converted in all six meetings between BKN and BOS at TD Garden since March 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-BOS (o/u at 208.5) 

(559) NEW YORK at (560) MILWAUKEE
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Knicks-Bucks set at Fiserv Forum
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-MIL (o/u at 219.5)

* NEW YORK is 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the series with Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-8.5 at MIL) 

(561) MEMPHIS at (562) DALLAS
* Under the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Grizzlies-Mavs divisional series in Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-DAL (o/u at 239.5)

* MEMPHIS won and covered all six meetings with Dallas in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 at DAL) 

(563) DENVER at (564) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total has converted in the last three meetings between DEN and OKC
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-OKC (o/u at 233.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 183-68 SU and 147-103-1 ATS (58.8%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-6.5 vs CLE), OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 vs DEN) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 137-108 SU and 139-103-3 ATS (57.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 at DAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-108 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 250-210 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 342-266 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – BKN-BOS (spread -18.5, total 208.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 24-18 Over (57.1%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-DET (o/u at 227.5)

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5-points or more are on a 50-14 SU and 38-26 ATS (59.4%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 vs MEM)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 159-61 SU and 129-89-2 ATS (59.2%) in their last 220 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-18.5 vs BKN) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 111-69 SU and 104-73-3 ATS (58.8%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at DET)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 197-171 SU and 202-156-10 ATS (56.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 vs NYK) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 179-119 SU and 167-124-7 ATS (57.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+8.5 at OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of six games or more as divisional underdogs are 8-43 SU and 18-30-3 ATS (37.5%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+18.5 at BOS) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed, in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, BOSTON, DALLAS, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, BOSTON ML, DALLAS ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – NYK-MIL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-DAL 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BROOKLYN +18.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -4.5 (+2.6)
2. DETROIT -6.5 (+1.8)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +18.5 (+0.8)
2. MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -4.5 (+2.7)
2. DETROIT -6.5 (+1.9)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-DET UNDER 227.5 (-1.2)
2. MEM-DAL UNDER 238.5 (-0.5)
3(tie). BKN-BOS UNDER 208.5 (-0.4)
DEN-OKC UNDER 234.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MILWAUKEE +8.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS -4.5 (+4.8)
2. DETROIT -6.5 (+2.8)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-DAL OVER 238.5 (+3.3)
2. NYK-MIL OVER 219.5 (+1.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-DET UNDER 227.5 (-3.8)
2. DEN-OKC UNDER 234.5 (-1.2)
3. BKN-BOS UNDER 208.5 (-0.5)

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