Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 12-1 in the last 13 of the Thunder-Warriors series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-GSW (o/u at 229.5)
* WASHINGTON is 4-37 SU and 12-29 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since Apr 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs BKN)
* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 103-65-1 ATS (61.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs POR)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 87-60 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-CLE (o/u at 240.5)
* ATLANTA is 130-91 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYK (o/u at 245.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 143-102 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
* MILWAUKEE is 20-6 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-MIL (o/u at 232.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 77-14 SU and 58-30-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
* GOLDEN STATE is 29-30 SU and 19-37 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-8.5 at GSW)
* GOLDEN STATE is 126-94 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-GSW (o/u at 229.5)
* ORLANDO is 112-80 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CHI (o/u at 232.5)
* WASHINGTON is 4-37 SU and 12-29 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since Apr ’22
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs BKN)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(529) SAN ANTONIO at (530) INDIANA
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Spurs-Pacers non-conference series at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-IND (o/u at 239.5)
(531) BROOKLYN at (532) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Nets-Wizards set in Washington D.C.
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+3.5 at WSH)
(533) ATLANTA at (534) NEW YORK
* ATLANTA is 5-2 ATS in the last seven trips to Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+7.5 at NYK)
(535) DENVER at (536) CLEVELAND
* Over the total has converted in all seven meetings between Denver and Cleveland since the start of 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-CLE (o/u at 240.5)
(537) PORTLAND at (538) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are 7-0 ATS in the last seven of the POR-NOP series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs POR)
(539) ORLANDO at (540) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the ORL-CHI series in the Windy City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CHI (o/u at 232.5)
(541) CHARLOTTE at (542) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE has won 11 of their last 13 games hosting Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE ML (-245 vs CHA)
(543) SACRAMENTO at (544) PHOENIX
* Favoeites are 12-0 SU and 9-3 ATS in the last 12 of the SAC-PHX divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-12.5 vs SAC)
(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is 12-1 in the last 13 of the Thunder-Warriors series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-GSW (o/u at 229.5)
(547) MEMPHIS at (548) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games hosting Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs MEM)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 128-94 SU and 131-88-3 ATS (59.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+3.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-100 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 235-193 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-251 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-CLE (spread -13.5, total 240.5)
UNDER – SAC-PHX (spread -12.5, total 226.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 103-65-1 ATS (61.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs POR)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 294-162 SU but just 190-253-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at IND), ORLANDO (-5.5 at CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 371-323 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-IND (o/u at 239.5)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 101-67 (60.1%) rate since 2021, including 46-24 (65.7%) to the Over in the last 70.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-PHX (o/u at 226.5)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 81-56 SU and 83-53-1 ATS (61%) in their last 137 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (-1.5 at NOP), MEMPHIS (+3.5 at LAL), LA LAKERS (-3.5 vs MEM)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 98-106 SU but 117-85-3 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+1.5 vs POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 286-328-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+5.5 vs SAS)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, ORLANDO, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-IND, ORL-CHI, SAC-PHX, OKC-GSW, MEM-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – DEN-CLE, ORL-CHI
UNDER – SAS-IND, ATL-NYK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-IND, MEM-LAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +13.5 (+4.4)
2. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+3.1)
3. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND -1.5 (+0.4)
2. NEW YORK -7.5 (+0.3)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+5.5)
2. DENVER +13.5 (+3.8)
3. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+2.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+3.8)
2. NEW YORK -7.5 (+0.5)
3. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-WSH OVER 223.5 (+4.3)
2. ATL-NYK OVER 245.5 (+2.7)
3. DEN-CLE OVER 240.5 (+2.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-IND UNDER 239.5 (-4.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +13.5 (+7.9)
2. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+2.8)
3. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND -1.5 (+1.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -8.5 (+0.8)
3. SAN ANTONIO -5.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-WSH OVER 223.5 (+4.5)
2. DEN-CLE OVER 240.5 (+3.8)
3. ORL-CHI OVER 232.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-IND UNDER 239.5 (-5.2)
2. POR-NOP UNDER 244.5 (-2.0)
3. CHA-MIL UNDER 232.5 (-1.8)
