The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, January 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 56-69 SU and 44-79-2 ATS (35.8%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6.5 vs LAC) 

* NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 105-69 (60.3%) rate since 2021, including 50-26 (65.8%) to the Over in the last 76.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-BOS (o/u at 219.5) 

* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 135-96-2 (58.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NOP (o/u at 233.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 61-45 SU and 59-46 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS (-9.5 at WSH), CLEVELAND (-3.5 at PHX) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 213-267 SU but 271-201-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+2.5 at NOP) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 24-4 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 36-15 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last three seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-DEN (o/u at 209.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 99-71 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-BOS (o/u at 219.5) 

* DETROIT is 3-12 SU but 11-3-1 ATS playing in 3rd Road in 4 Days games since February 2021
* GOLDEN STATE is 35-32 SU and 25-39 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at GSW)

* GOLDEN STATE is 133-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-GSW (o/u at 224.5) 

* ORLANDO is 116-84 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-ORL (o/u at 218.5) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 28-46 SU and 27-46-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+2.5 at UTA) 

* UTAH is 98-67 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 99-71 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-UTA (o/u at 226.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) TORONTO at (502) ORLANDO
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Raptors-Magic series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-ORL (o/u at 218.5) 

(503) LA LAKERS at (504) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Lakers-Wizards cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-WSH (o/u at 229.5) 

(505) PORTLAND at (506) NEW YORK
* NEW YORK is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six games with Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs POR) 

(507) SACRAMENTO at (508) BOSTON
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six of the SAC-BOS non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+11.5 at BOS)

* Under the total has converted in all six matchups at TD Garden since the start of the 2019-20 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-BOS (o/u at 219.5) 

(509) MEMPHIS at (510) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Grizzlies-Pelicans divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NOP (o/u at 232.5) 

(513) CLEVELAND at (514) PHOENIX
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in meetings between Cleveland and Phoenix in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+3.5 vs CLE) 

(515) BROOKLYN at (516) UTAH
* Underdogs are 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Nets-Jazz set, but did lose earlier this season
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+2.5 at UTA) 

(517) LA CLIPPERS at (518) DENVER
* DENVER is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five games with LAC, dating back to Game 4 of the 2025 Western Conference first round playoff series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+6.5 vs LAC) 

(519) DETROIT at (520) GOLDEN STATE
* Road teams are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Pistons-Warriors non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 at GSW)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-102 SU and 133-97-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+2.5 at NOP), BROOKLYN (+2.5 at UTA) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 133-105 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 245-205 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 329-261 (55.8%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAC-BOS (spread -11.5, total 219.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

WC Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In WC Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5-points or more are on a 46-14 SU and 35-25 ATS (58.3%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NEW ORLEANS vs MEM, -2.5 CURRENTLY 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 185-107 SU but 135-153-4 ATS (46.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 108-135 ATS (44.4%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (-2.5 vs BKN) 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 172-80 SU and 142-106-4 ATS (57.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR TORONTO at ORL, +1.5 CURRENTLY 

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 330-253 SU but 265-303-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs POR), PHOENIX (+3.5 vs CLE) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 171-213 SU and 165-215-4 ATS (43.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs POR), WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs LAL) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 335-345 SU and 307-365-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6.5 vs LAC) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 105-69 (60.3%) rate since 2021, including 50-26 (65.8%) to the Over in the last 76.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-BOS (o/u at 219.5) 

NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 25-76 SU and 46-55 ATS (45.5%) in their last 101 tries.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+11.5 at BOS) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 89-59 SU and 92-55-1 ATS (62.6%) in their last 148 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (+1.5 at ORL), GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs DET) 

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 56-69 SU and 44-79-2 ATS (35.8%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+6.5 vs LAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 135-96-2 (58.4%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-NOP (o/u at 233.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 107-112 SU but 127-90-3 ATS (58.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+2.5 at NOP), UTAH (-2.5 vs BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 292-333-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 36-149 SU and 82-97-6 ATS (45.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO (+11.5 at BOS), BROOKLYN (+2.5 at UTA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it. System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, PHOENIX, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, SACRAMENTO, LA CLIPPERS, DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PHOENIX, UTAH, DETROIT 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, NEW ORLEANS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-WSH, TOR-ORL, POR-NYK, MEM-NOP, CLE-PHX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAL-WSH, BKN-UTA
UNDER – MEM-NOP 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAC-BOS, LAC-DEN
UNDER – TOR-ORL 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +6.5 (+4.0)
2(tie). TORONTO +1.5 (+1.8)
DETROIT +2.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+3.3)
2. BOSTON -11.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +6.5 (+5.4)
2. PHOENIX +3.5 (+2.5)
3. BROOKLYN +2.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -11.5 (+2.9)
2. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+2.6)
3. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-ORL OVER 218.5 (+2.5)
2. SAC-BOS OVER 218.5 (+2.3)
3. DET-GSW OVER 224.5 (+2.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CLE-PHX UNDER 219.5 (-0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +6.5 (+3.2)
2. DETROIT +2.5 (+2.1)
3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+3.4)
2. BOSTON -11.5 (+1.5)
3. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-NOP OVER 232.5 (+4.8)
2. LAL-WSH OVER 228.5 (+4.2)
3. SAC-BOS OVER 218.5 (+3.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: 1. POR-NYK UNDER 224.5 (-2.8)

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