The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is on an absurd 22-3 run in the Mavericks-Trail Blazers overall series, including a 13-1 run at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-POR (o/u at 239.5) 

* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 315-173 SU but just 203-272-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 vs WSH) 

* CLEVELAND is just 17-20 SU and 10-27 ATS (27%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-5.5 vs MIA)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* ATLANTA is 140-108 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-BOS (o/u at 226.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 37-35 SU and 25-44 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 vs WSH) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 139-106 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-GSW (o/u at 232.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 47-8 SU and 37-17-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 vs CHI) 

* CLEVELAND is just 17-20 SU and 10-27 ATS (27%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-5.5 vs MIA)

* UTAH is 107-76 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* DENVER is 15-2 Over the total (88.2%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
* DENVER is 93-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-DEN (o/u at 248.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 12-33 SU but 27-17-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024

* LA LAKERS are 41-15 SU and 39-17 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON BROOKLYN, 1 PLAY ON LA LAKERS 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 118-93 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* LA LAKERS are 13-4 Over the total (76.5%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-LAL (o/u at 222.5) 

* PORTLAND is 23-9 Over the total (71.9%) as a favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-POR (o/u at 239.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(507) LA CLIPPERS at (508) INDIANA
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Clippers-Pacers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-IND (o/u at 239.5) 

(509) MIAMI at (510) CLEVELAND
* Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the MIA-CLE set since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 at CLE) 

(511) ATLANTA at (512) BOSTON
* ATLANTA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six visits to TD Garden
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 at BOS) 

(513) CHICAGO at (514) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five instances hosting Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-19.5 vs CHI)

(515) HOUSTON at (516) MEMPHIS
* Road teams have won five straight ATS in the HOU-MEM divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 at MEM) 

(517) NEW ORLEANS at (518) TORONTO
* Under the total has converted in all three matchups between New Orleans and Toronto since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-TOR (o/u at 229.5) 

(519) UTAH at (520) DENVER
* DENVER is on surges of 7-0 SU and 4-0 ATS in the divisional rivalry with Utah at Ball Arena
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-18.5 vs UTA) 

(521) WASHINGTON at (522) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS versus Washington since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 vs WSH) 

(523) DALLAS at (524) PORTLAND
* Over the total is on an absurd 22-3 run in the Mavericks-Trail Blazers overall series, including a 13-1 run at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-POR (o/u at 239.5)
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the series at Portland as well
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-10.5 vs DAL)

(525) BROOKLYN at (526) LA LAKERS
* BROOKLYN is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Los Angeles to play the Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+16.5 at LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-114 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 268-223 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 350-280 (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-OKC (spread -19.5, total 238.5), WSH-GSW (spread -13.5, total 232.5), DAL-POR (spread -10.5, total 239.5), BKN-LAL (spread -16.5, total 222.5)
UNDER – HOU-MEM (spread +12.5, total 227.5), UTA-DEN (spread -18.5, total 248.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 55-15 SU and 42-28 ATS (60%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 at MEM)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 104-65 SU and 92-75-2 ATS (55.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 35-19 ATS (64.8%) as underdogs.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+5.5 at BOS), PORTLAND (-10.5 vs DAL) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 118-80-1 ATS (59.6%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+10.5 at POR) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 315-173 SU but just 203-272-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-13.5 vs WSH) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 400-349 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-GSW (o/u at 232.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 351-363 SU and 324-382-8 ATS (45.9%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-18.5 vs UTA) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 199-176 SU and 204-161-10 ATS (55.9%) run.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-8.5 vs NOP) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 156-29 SU but 80-102-3 ATS (44%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): DENVER (-18.5 vs UTA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 119-140 SU but 145-112-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+12.5 vs HOU), DALLAS (+10.5 at POR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 328-375-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 44-173 SU and 96-115-6 ATS (45.5%).
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+16.5 at LAL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, HOUSTON, DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-IND, WSH-GSW
UNDER – MIA-CLE, UTA-DEN 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +10.5 (+4.0)
2. MIAMI +5.5 (+1.8)
3. BROOKLYN +16.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -18.5 (+7.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+1.8)
3. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +10.5 (+8.4)
2. MEMPHIS +12.5 (+4.3)
3. MIAMI +5.5 (+2.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -13.5 (+2.4)
2. TORONTO -8.5 (+0.4)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -19.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-BOS OVER 226.5 (+2.3)
2. UTA-DEN OVER 248.5 (+1.0)
3. DAL-POR OVER 239.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-LAL UNDER 222.5 (-2.8)
2. NOP-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-0.7)
3. HOU-MEM UNDER 227.5 (-0.6 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-BOS OVER 226.5 (+3.5)
2. WSH-GSW OVER 232.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-LAL UNDER 222.5 (-6.0)
2. NOP-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-2.4)
3. UTA-DEN UNDER 248.5 (-1.9)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR