The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, March 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 340-262 SU but 274-313-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 48-76-1 ATS (38.7%).
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-7.5 vs MIA) 

* PHOENIX is 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS (92.3%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs NOP) 

* FAVORITES are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Clippers-Spurs set in San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 vs LAC) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 153-110 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CHA (o/u at 229.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 67-52 SU and 65-53 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PORTLAND (+6.5 at HOU), NEW YORK (-1.5 at DEN), LA CLIPPERS (+7.5 at SAS) 

* HOUSTON is 18-10 Under the total (64.3%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-HOU (o/u at 218.5) 

* DENVER is 90-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-DEN (o/u at 230.5) 

* DALLAS is just 2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS (29.4%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+15.5 at BOS) 

* DALLAS is 15-6 Over the total playing on the road in the back-to-back away game scenario since April 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-BOS (o/u at 224.5) 

* PHOENIX is 11-2 SU and 12-1 ATS (92.3%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs NOP)

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 59-49 SU and 63-43 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+9.5 at LAL) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 58-50 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons

* LA LAKERS are 11-4 Over the total (73.3%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-LAL (o/u at 235.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) MIAMI at (502) CHARLOTTE
* Home teams are on a current 10-2-1 ATS surge in the Heat-Hornets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-7.5 vs MIA)

* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the set at the Spectrum Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-CHA (o/u at 229.5) 

(503) DALLAS at (504) BOSTON
* BOSTON is on a 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS run versus Dallas since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-15.5 vs DAL) 

(505) PORTLAND at (506) HOUSTON
* Under the total is 7-2-1 in the last 10 of the Trail Blazers-Rockets set at Toyota Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-HOU (o/u at 218.5) 

(507) NEW ORLEANS at (508) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX has won and covered the last four meetings with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-5.5 vs NOP) 

(509) NEW YORK at (510) DENVER
* NEW YORK is on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge versus Denver since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 at DEN)

* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Knicks-Nuggets series at Ball Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-DEN (o/u at 230.5) 

(511) LA CLIPPERS at (512) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the Clippers-Spurs set in San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 vs LAC) 

(513) INDIANA at (514) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with non-conference foe Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-9.5 vs IND)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-110 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 252-212 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 344-270 (56%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – DAL-BOS (spread -15.5, total 224.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, road teams playing on a back-to-back are 14-19 SU and ATS (42.4%) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+7.5 at CHA)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 68-102 SU and 72-93-5 ATS (43.6%) slide, including 23-40 ATS when a pick em’ or favorite.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-6.5 vs POR) 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 95-63-1 (60.1%) rate (sub-system: 55-28-1 to the Over (66.3%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-PHX (o/u at 225.5)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 162-62 SU and 132-90-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 224 tries.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-15.5 vs DAL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 340-262 SU but 274-313-15 ATS (46.7%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 48-76-1 ATS (38.7%).
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-7.5 vs MIA) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 308-352-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 40-159 SU and 88-105-6 ATS (45.6%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+9.5 at LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CHARLOTTE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, NEW YORK, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-BOS, POR-HOU, NYK-DEN, IND-LAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-DEN
UNDER – DAL-BOS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – POR-HOU

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+3.1)
2. INDIANA +9.5 (+1.1)
3. DENVER +1.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6.5 (+2.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+1.6)
3. BOSTON -15.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +1.5 (+2.7)
2. DALLAS +15.5 (+1.8)
3. MIAMI +7.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.2)
2. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+0.9)
3. SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NYK-DEN OVER 230.5 (+1.6)
2. POR-HOU OVER 218.5 (+0.3)
3. NOP-PHX OVER 225.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CHA UNDER 229.5 (-2.0)
2. LAC-SAS UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)
3. DAL-BOS UNDER 224.5 (-1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+2.6)
2. DENVER +1.5 (+2.4)
3. INDIANA +9.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+1.7)
2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.6)
3. CHARLOTTE -7.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-PHX OVER 225.5 (+4.2)
2. POR-HOU OVER 218.5 (+1.9)
3. IND-LAL OVER 235.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-SAS UNDER 222.5 (-2.4)
2. MIA-CHA UNDER 229.5 (-2.0)
3. DAL-BOS UNDER 224.5 (-1.7)

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