The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 44-14 SU and 39-17-2 ATS (69.6%) in their last 58 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at DAL) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 39-19 SU and 37-19-2 ATS (66.1%) vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs SAC)

* Favorites are on 12-2 SU and ATS (85.7%) run in the Trail Blazers-Rockets series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs POR)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 20-12 SU and 22-9-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last four seasons

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 39-19 SU and 37-19-2 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+DaysRest scenario are 79-40 SU and 73-44-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs SAC) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 120-89 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-SAS (o/u at 235.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 76-50 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season

* HOUSTON is 115-83 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-HOU (o/u at 236.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 135-98 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021

* MILWAUKEE is 18-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-MIL (o/u at 238.5)

* ORLANDO is 104-74 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-ORL (o/u at 223.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 76-50 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-NOP (o/u at 227.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) BROOKLYN (1-10) at (502) ORLANDO (6-6)
* Favorites are on a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS run in the BKN-ORL series, but did lose ATS last time
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-13.5 vs BKN) 

(503) MIAMI (7-5) at (504) NEW YORK (7-4)
* Home teams are on runs of 10-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in meetings between MIA and NYK
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-5.5 vs MIA) 

(505) PHILADELPHIA (7-4) at (506) DETROIT (10-2)
* PHILADELPHIA is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 matchups with Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+5.5 at DET)

(507) PORTLAND (6-5) at (508) HOUSTON (7-3)
* Favorites are on 12-2 SU and ATS run in the Trail Blazers-Rockets series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-7.5 vs POR) 

(509) SACRAMENTO (3-9) at (510) MINNESOTA (7-4)
* Road teams have covered 11-straight ATS in the SAC-MIN Western Conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+11.5 at MIN) 

(511) LA LAKERS (8-4) at (512) NEW ORLEANS (2-9)
* Underdogs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between LAL and NOP
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs LAL) 

(513) CHARLOTTE (4-7) at (514) MILWAUKEE (7-5)
* CHARLOTTE has covered all four games ATS with Milwaukee since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+9.5 at MIL) 

(515) LA CLIPPERS (3-8) at (516) DALLAS (3-9)
* Favorites have won and covered all six meetings between LAC and DAL since May 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at DAL) 

(517) GOLDEN STATE (7-6) at (518) SAN ANTONIO (8-3)
* Road teams are 12-4 ATS in the last 16 of the GSW-SAS set
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at SAS)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 167-63 SU and 137-92-1 ATS (59.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 vs PHI) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 119-82 SU and 121-77-3 ATS (61.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at DAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 85-34 SU and 72-46-1 ATS (61%).
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at DAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 117-96 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 228-181 (55.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 303-230 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BKN-ORL (spread -13.5, total 223.5), SAC-MIN (spread -11.5, total 240.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 308-239 SU but 244-288-15 ATS (45.9%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): ORLANDO (-13.5 vs BKN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 340-297 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-SAS (o/u at 235.5) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 173-189 SU and162-190-10 ATS (46%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+2.5 at SAS) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 204-79 SU and 148-132-3 ATS (52.9%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs GSW) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 69-50 SU and71-47-1 ATS (60.2%) in their last 119 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-2.5 vs GSW)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 44-14 SU and 39-17-2 ATS (69.6%) in their last 58 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-2.5 at DAL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 122-85-2 (58.9%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-MIN (o/u at 240.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 63-88-1 ATS (41.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-5.5 vs PHI) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the  

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, LA LAKERS, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, MINNESOTA, LA LAKERS, MILWAUKEE, LA CLIPPERS, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO ML, NEW YORK ML, HOUSTON ML, MINNESOTA ML, MILWAUKEE ML, SAN ANTONIO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-ORL, POR-HOU, SAC-MIN, LAL-NOP 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – CHA-MIL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of ’23 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – LAC-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-MIN 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 (+3.4)
2. NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+1.2)
3. MIAMI +5.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+2.6)
2. HOUSTON -7.5 (+2.3)
3. LA CLIPPERS -2.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +5.5 (+8.5)
2. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 (+4.8)
3. DALLAS +2.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -9.5 (+2.3)
2. SAN ANTONIO -2.5 (+2.0)
3. ORLANDO -13.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-DET OVER 230.5 (+1.0)
2. LAL-NOP OVER 227.5 (+0.7)
3. LAC-DAL OVER 219.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-SAS UNDER 235.5 (-2.9)
2. MIA-NYK UNDER 238.5 (-1.5)
3. CHA-MIL UNDER 239.5 (-1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +5.5 (+2.1)
2. NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.8)
3. MIAMI +5.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -2.5 (+3.3)
2. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+2.8)
3. HOUSTON -7.5 (+2.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BKN-ORL OVER 223.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-MIL UNDER 239.5 (-3.8)
2. GSW-SAS UNDER 235.5 (-3.4)
3. LAC-DAL UNDER 219.5 (-2.7)

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