Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA CUP FAVORITES are on a 37-9 SU and 31-15 ATS (67.4%) run in their last 46 tries
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 9-37 SU and 11-31-4 ATS (26.2%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at DAL)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 166-109 SU and 157-111-7 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 at CHI)
* BOSTON is 13-2 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-BOS (o/u at 222.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 191-246 SU but 247-182-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 at PHX)
* TORONTO is 15-12 SU and 18-8 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-14.5 vs WSH)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 62-25 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-TOR (o/u at 239.5)
* BOSTON is 13-2 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-BOS (o/u at 222.5)
* HOUSTON is 117-83 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-HOU (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 191-246 SU but 247-182-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 70-13 SU and 53-27-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since Apr 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-16.5 at UTA)
* PORTLAND is 23-26 SU but 33-14 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct 2023
* GOLDEN STATE is 13-15 SU and 7-20-1 ATS playing at home in a 3rd in 4 Days game since Nov 2023
* GOLDEN STATE is 27-28 SU and 18-34 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2023
Trends Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+7.5 at GSW)
* GOLDEN STATE is 122-90 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* PORTLAND is 64-36 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-GSW (o/u at 237.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(527) INDIANA (2-13) at (528) CLEVELAND (10-6)
* INDIANA is 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine trips to Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+13.5 at CLE)
(529) WASHINGTON (1-13) at (530) TORONTO (10-5)
* TORONTO is 11-3 SU and ATS in the last 14 games with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-14.5 vs WSH)
(531) BROOKLYN (2-12) at (532) BOSTON (8-7)
* Road teams are 4-1 ATS in the BKN-BOS divisional set since start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+14.5 at BOS)
(533) MIAMI (9-6) at (534) CHICAGO (8-6)
* Underdogs are 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the MIA-CHI series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 at CHI)
(535) NEW ORLEANS (2-13) at (536) DALLAS (4-12)
* Home teams are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six of the NOP-DAL divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 vs NOP)
(537) MINNESOTA (10-5) at (538) PHOENIX (9-6)
* MINNESOTA is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-4.5 at PHX)
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the MIN-PHX series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-PHX (o/u at 233.5)
(539) DENVER (11-3) at (540) HOUSTON (10-3)
* Road teams have covered all four matchups between Denver and Houston since December 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 at HOU)
(541) PORTLAND (6-9) at (542) GOLDEN STATE (9-8)
* Over the total is 4-2 in the last six of the Trail Blazers-Warriors series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-GSW (o/u at 237.5)
(543) OKLAHOMA CITY (15-1) at (544) UTAH (5-9)
* Over the total is 10-2-1 in the last 13 of the OKC-UTA divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 121-84 SU and 123-79-3 ATS (60.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 118-96 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 307-234 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-TOR (spread -14.5, total 240.5)
UNDER – IND-CLE (spread -13.5, total 238.5), BKN-BOS (spread -14.5, total 222.5), OKC-UTA (spread +16.5, total 233.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 14-15 SU and 22-7 ATS (75.9%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+16.5 vs OKC)
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 39-8 SU and 32-15 ATS (68.1%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-4.5 vs NOP)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 285-150 SU but just 184-238-13 ATS (43.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-2.5 vs MIA)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 166-109 SU and 157-111-7 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 at CHI)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 72-54 SU and 74-51-1 ATS (59.2%) in their last 126 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+2.5 at HOU)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 134-25 SU but 69-87-3 ATS (44.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): TORONTO (-14.5 vs WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 83-19 SU and 56-43-3 ATS (56.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-16.5 at UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 24-9 SU but 10-23 ATS (30.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 23-10 (69.7%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-16.5 at UTA)
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 89-92 SU but 104-75-3 ATS (58.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+7.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 9-37 SU and 11-31-4 ATS (26.2%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 36-82 SU but 64-54 ATS (54.2%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 at TOR)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 266-316-4 ATS (45.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 32-141 SU and 74-93-6 ATS (44.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-16.5 at UTA), WASHINGTON (+14.5 at TOR), NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at DAL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and a ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-TOR, BKN-BOS, NOP-DAL, POR-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and a ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-CLE, POR-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-TOR, BKN-BOS, NOP-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +16.5 (+3.7)
2. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.4)
3. PHOENIX +4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -14.5 (+2.3)
2. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+1.5)
3. HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +13.5 (+3.0)
2. WASHINGTON +14.5 (+2.3)
3. PHOENIX +4.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -14.5 (+3.3)
2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.4)
3. CHICAGO -2.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIA-CHI OVER 249.5 (+2.0)
2(tie). IND-CLE OVER 238.5 (+0.6)
BKN-BOS OVER 222.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-GSW UNDER 237.5 (-2.8)
2. DEN-HOU UNDER 235.5 (-1.5)
3. MIN-PHX UNDER 233.5 (-0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +16.5 (+2.1)
2. PHOENIX +4.5 (+1.5)
3. MIAMI +2.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -14.5 (+2.2)
2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.7)
3. BOSTON -14.5 (+1.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-TOR OVER 239.5 (+1.4)
2. BKN-BOS OVER 222.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-PHX UNDER 233.5 (-5.0)
2. DEN-HOU UNDER 235.5 (-4.9)
3. POR-GSW UNDER 237.5 (-4.7)
