Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA CUP FAVORITES are on a 49-18 SU and 38-29 ATS (56.7%) run in their last 67 tries
Trend Matches: PLAY ALL FAVORITES TONIGHT
* Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 62-39-1 (61.4%) in their last 102 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-IND (o/u at 239.5)
* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 167-63 SU and 137-92-1 ATS (59.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 vs SAS)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* CHARLOTTE is 136-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-CHA (o/u at 248.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 81-41 SU and 74-46-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four Seasons
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (-2.5 vs SAC)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 196-250 SU but 252-186-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four Seasons
* LA CLIPPERS is 23-17 SU and 10-30 ATS playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since May ’21
System/Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+6.5 at LAC)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 37-5 SU and 33-8-1 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 81-41 SU and 74-46-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-15 SU and 4-16 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
System/Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 vs SAS)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(545) ORLANDO at (546) DETROIT
* Home teams are 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in the last nine of the ORL-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 vs ORL)
(547) CLEVELAND at (548) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the CLE-ATL series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 vs CLE)
(549) WASHINGTON at (550) INDIANA
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Wizards-Pacers series at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-IND (o/u at 239.5)
(551) MILWAUKEE at (552) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the MIL-NYK series since Christmas 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-NYK (o/u at 232.5)
(553) CHICAGO at (554) CHARLOTTE
* Favorites are on an extended 14-3 SU and 13-3-1 ATS run in the CHI-CHA series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2.5 at CHA)
(555) PHILADELPHIA at (556) BROOKLYN
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the 76ers-Nets divisional rivalry at Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 at BKN)
(557) SAN ANTONIO at (558) DENVER
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the SAS-DEN series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+7.5 at DEN)
(559) PHOENIX at (560) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OKLAHOMA CITY has won six straight SU and ATS versus Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
* Over the total is 9-2 in the last 11 of the PHX-OKC series at Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
(561) SACRAMENTO at (562) UTAH
* Road teams are 4-1 ATS in the last five of the SAC-UTA series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+2.5 at UTA)
(563) MEMPHIS at (564) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Memphis since December 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs MEM)
(565) DALLAS at (566) LA LAKERS
* Under the total is 8-1 in the Mavs-Lakers set since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-LAL (o/u at 230.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 167-63 SU and 137-92-1 ATS (59.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 124-85 SU and 127-79-3 ATS (61.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+2.5 at UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-98 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 311-237 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-OKC (spread -15.5, total 225.5), DAL-LAL (spread -10.5, total 230.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 87-32 SU and 73-53-3 ATS (57.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 at BKN)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 169-98 SU but 124-139-4 ATS (47.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 102-122 ATS (45.5%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (-2.5 at CHA), PHILADELPHIA (-7.5 at BKN), LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 vs MEM)
Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 312-241 SU but 246-292-15 ATS (45.7%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-8.5 vs MIL)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
Teams that win outright versus divisional rivals as double-digit underdogs have trended sharply Under the total in the next contest, going 62-39-1 (61.4%) in their last 102 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-IND (o/u at 239.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 350-305 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-DET (o/u at 231.5), PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 310-320 SU and 284-338-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-8.5 vs MIL), WASHINGTON (+6.5 at IND), DENVER (-7.5 vs SAS)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 176-191 SU and 165-192-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-2.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 139-25 SU but 71-90-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX), LA LAKERS (-10.5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 27-9 SU but 12-24 ATS (33.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 24-12 (66.7%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 125-86-2 (59.2%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-CHA (o/u at 248.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-97 SU but 107-78-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 at NYK), CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs CHI), UTAH (-2.5 vs SAC)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 275-321-4 ATS (46.1%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+2.5 vs CHI), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 67-91-1 ATS (42.4%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHX)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, CHICAGO, SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, BROOKLYN, PHOENIX, SAN ANTONIO, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NEW YORK, CHICAGO, SAN ANTONIO, UTAH, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and a ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-DET, CLE-ATL, CHI-CHA, PHI-BKN, PHX-OKC, MEM-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI. of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-IND, SAS-DEN
UNDER – CLE-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-CHA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+3.8)
2. CHARLOTTE +2.5 (+2.8)
3. ATLANTA +5.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -8.5 (+3.0)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.4)
3. LA LAKERS -10.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +5.5 (+4.1)
2. WASHINGTON +6.5 (+3.0)
3. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+2.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH -2.5 (+1.9)
2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.8)
LA LAKERS -10.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-NYK OVER 232.5 (+1.3)
2. SAS-DEN OVER 238.5 (+0.6)
3. PHX-OKC OVER 225.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-DET UNDER 231.5 (-2.0)
2. SAC-UTA UNDER 242.5 (-1.5)
3. DAL-LAL UNDER 230.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +5.5 (+3.8)
2. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+1.7)
3. CHARLOTTE +2.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+3.5)
2. NEW YORK -8.5 (+3.4)
3. PHILADELPHIA -7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-LAC OVER 224.5 (+2.9)
2. SAC-UTA OVER 242.5 (+2.6)
3. WSH-IND OVER 239.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-DEN UNDER 238.5 (-4.0)
2. CHI-CHA UNDER 248.5 (-2.2)
3. ORL-DET UNDER 231.5 (-2.0)
