The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home teams are on an extended 16-3 ATS run in the Thunder-Grizzlies series
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 vs OKC)

* LA LAKERS are 10-0 SU and ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days scenario since February 2026
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-2.5 vs POR)

* CLEVELAND is just 28-35 SU and 19-44 ATS (30.2%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PHI)

The following are 40 of the top team-specific trends that have developed in the NBA over the last few seasons when considering scheduling situations. Like the league-wide systems introduced earlier, naturally, there are reasons that certain teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* CHARLOTTE is 95-55 Under the total playing at home with One Day Rest since January 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-CHA (o/u at 207.5)

* TORONTO is 18-4 SU and 17-5 ATS (77.3%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-6.5 at MIL)

* MILWAUKEE is 95-61 Over the total playing at home with One Day Rest since Jan ’21
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-MIL (o/u at 230.5)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 185-101 SU and 164-114 ATS playing in the popular One Day Rest scenario since October 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-3.5 at MEM)

* UTAH is 114-81 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-DAL (o/u at 226.5)

* WASHINGTON is 71-176 SU and 102-139 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2021
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 at ATL)

* CLEVELAND is just 28-35 SU and 19-44 ATS (30.2%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PHI)

* PHILADELPHIA is on 14-0 Under the total (100%) surge in Friday games since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CLE (o/u at 229.5)

* NEW ORLEANS is 20-7 Over the total (74.1%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NOP (o/u at 230.5)

* LA LAKERS are 10-0 SU and ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days scenario since February 2026
* LA LAKERS are 104-64 SU and 99-68 ATS playing with One Day Rest since November 2023
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-2.5 vs POR)

* SACRAMENTO is 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS (20%) at home versus teams currently winning >60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+15.5 vs SAS)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(533) BOSTON at (534) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Celtics-Hornets series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-CHA (o/u at 207.5)

(535) WASHINGTON at (536) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven meetings with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-7.5 vs WSH)

(537) PHILADELPHIA at (538) CLEVELAND
* PHILADELPHIA is 2-4 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at CLE)

(539) TORONTO at (540) MILWAUKEE
* Favorites are on 6-1 SU and ATS run in the last seven of the Raptors-Bucks set
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-6.5 at MIL)

(541) UTAH at (542) DALLAS
* Home teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the Jazz-Mavs series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-7.5 vs UTA)

(543) MINNESOTA at (544) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 9-2 in the MIN-NOP set since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NOP (o/u at 230.5)

(545) OKLAHOMA CITY at (546) MEMPHIS
* Home teams are on an extended 16-3 ATS run in the OKC-MEM series
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 vs OKC)

(547) PORTLAND at (548) LA LAKERS
* Over the total has converted in four straight meetings between Portland and LA Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-LAL (o/u at 232.5)

(549) SAN ANTONIO at (550) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of the Spurs-Kings set, including eight straight in Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-SAC (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 149-128 (53.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-234 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 372-306 (54.9%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAS-SAC (spread SAC +15.5, o/u at 228.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Close wins haven’t provided momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 321-176 SU but just 206-278-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 at SAC)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 434-369 (54%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-CHA (o/u at 207.5), MIN-NOP (o/u at 230.5), OKC-MEM (o/u at 224.5), POR-LAL (o/u at 232.5), SAS-SAC (o/u at 228.5)

High turnover games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 111-81 SU and 113-78-1 ATS (59.2%) in their last 192 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 vs OKC)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 111-25 SU and 75-58-3 ATS (56.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 at SAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 243-209 ATS (53.8%) over the last four seasons, good for +13.1 units of profit and a ROI of 2.9%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 986-903 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -7.3 units and a ROI of -0.4%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 167-145 ATS record (53.5%). This has netted +7.5 units and an ROI of 2.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, MEMPHIS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 578-526 ATS record (52.4%), going for -0.6 unit of profit and an ROI of -0.05%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, UTAH, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 117-156 ATS (42.9%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -54.6 units for an ROI of -20%.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key supermajority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 687-609 ATS record, good for 53%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +17.1 units of profit and an ROI of +1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, TORONTO, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 208-223 ATS, good for 48.3%. This is almost a 4% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -37.2 units of loss and an ROI of -8.6%.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 566-470, good for 54.6%, +49 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-ATL, PHI-CLE, POR-LAL

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 491-428 (53.4%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 484-444 (52.2%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BOS-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially, the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 354-278 (56%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best units angle has produced +48.2 units of profit for +7.6%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): UTA-DAL, MIN-NOP

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+2.6)
2. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+1.2)
3. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.9)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -2.5 (+1.3)
2. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+0.9)
3. DALLAS -7.5 (+0.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+5.5)
2. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+1.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -6.5 (+4.7)
2. DALLAS -7.5 (+3.5)
3. SAN ANTONIO -15.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CLE OVER 229.5 (+2.3)
2. SAS-SAC OVER 228.5 (+1.3)
3. OKC-MEM OVER 224.5 (+0.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-MIL UNDER 230.5 (-1.3)
2. POR-LAL UNDER 232.5 (-0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +6.5 (+3.1)
2. CLEVELAND +2.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5 (+1.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO -15.5 (+1.0)
3. DALLAS -7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-CLE OVER 229.5 (+3.6)
2. SAS-SAC OVER 228.5 (+3.5)
3. UTA-DAL OVER 226.5 (+2.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: OKC-MEM UNDER 224.5 (-0.6)

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR