The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Friday, November 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In Eastern Central divisional games, favorites of <= 7.5 points playing on two days rest or more are 22-6 SU and 21-7 ATS (75%), including 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS at HOME, since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-4.5 vs CHI) 

* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 105-65 SU and 100-67-3 ATS (59.9%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4.5 at MEM) 

* Home teams are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Hornets-Heat series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-4.5 vs CHA) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 190-242 SU but 246-178-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+3.5 at ORL) 

* BROOKLYN is 11-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-BKN (o/u at 227.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 3-18 SU and 5-16 ATS playing on the ROAD in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Apr 2022
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 at MIA) 

* MIAMI is 18-6 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-MIA (o/u at 241.5) 

* HOUSTON is 113-83 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAS (o/u at 223.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 65-13 SU and 50-25-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since Apr 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at SAC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 75-49 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
* UTAH is 88-58 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-MIN (o/u at 232.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 118-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DEN (o/u at 228.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(537) CLEVELAND (5-3) at (538) WASHINGTON (1-7)
* Home teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the CLE-WSH series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+13.5 vs CLE) 

(539) BOSTON (4-5) at (540) ORLANDO (3-5)
* Favorites are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the BOS-ORL set
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-3.5 vs BOS) 

(541) TORONTO (4-4) at (542) ATLANTA (4-4)
* Road underdogs are 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 of Raptors-Hawks series
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2.5 at ATL) 

(543) DETROIT (6-2) at (544) BROOKLYN (1-7)
* DETROIT is on an extended 13-4 ATS run versus Brooklyn, including six straight ATS wins
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at BKN) 

(545) HOUSTON (5-2) at (546) SAN ANTONIO (5-2)
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Rockets-Spurs divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SAS (o/u at 223.5) 

(547) DALLAS (2-6) at (548) MEMPHIS (3-6)
* MEMPHIS is 5-1 SU and ATS in the divisional rivalry with Dallas since 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs DAL)

(549) UTAH (3-5) at (550) MINNESOTA (4-4)
* Road teams are 17-5 ATS in the last 22 of the UTA-MIN divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+11.5 at MIN)

(551) CHARLOTTE (3-5) at (552) MIAMI (4-4)
* Home teams are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Hornets-Heat series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-4.5 vs CHA)

(553) CHICAGO (6-1) at (554) MILWAUKEE (5-3)
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the CHI-MIL Central Division rivalry in the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 at MIL)

(555) OKLAHOMA CITY (8-1) at (556) SACRAMENTO (3-5)
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in the OKC-SAC series in Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at SAC) 

(557) GOLDEN STATE (5-4) at (558) DENVER (5-2)
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the meetings between GSW and DEN at Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+10.5 at DEN)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 164-62 SU and 135-90-1 ATS (60%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-4.5 vs CHI)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 118-80 SU and 120-75-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4.5 at MEM)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 116-93 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-180 (55.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 300-228 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-WSH (spread 13.5, total 240.5), DET-BKN (spread 10.5, total 227.5), OKC-SAC (spread 10.5, total 233.5), GSW-DEN (spread -10.5, total 228.5)
UNDER – UTA-MIN (spread -11.5, total 232.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 21-12 Over (63.6%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIL (o/u at 239.5) 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #3:
In Eastern Central divisional games, favorites of <= 7.5 points playing on two days rest or more are 22-6 SU and 21-7 ATS (75%), including 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS at home, since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-4.5 vs CHI)

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 36-7 SU and 30-13 ATS (69.8%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-3.5 at SAS), MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 164-95 SU but 120-135-4 ATS (47.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 98-119 ATS (45.2%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs UTA) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 129-134 SU but 135-113-5 ATS (54.4%), including 93-62-1 ATS (60%) when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (+3.5 vs HOU) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 105-65 SU and 100-67-3 ATS (59.9%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+4.5 at MEM)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 337-288 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DET-BKN (o/u at 227.5), TOR-ATL (o/u at 235.5), HOU-SAS (o/u at 223.5), DAL-MEM (o/u at 231.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 79-18 SU and 54-40-3 ATS (57.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at BKN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 87-91 SU but 102-74-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-4.5 vs DAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DETROIT, UTAH, CHARLOTTE, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, UTAH

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, DETROIT, OKLAHOMA CITY, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher. However, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS, CHARLOTTE, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, MEMPHIS ML, MINNESOTA ML, MIAMI ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-SAS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – CHI-MIL

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO +2.5 (+3.1)
2. BOSTON +3.5 (+1.6)
3. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -4.5 (+1.9)
2(tie). MIAMI -4.5 (+1.7)
MINNESOTA -11.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+3.1)
2. CHICAGO +4.5 (+2.3)
3. BOSTON +3.5 (+1.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -4.5 (+4.5)
2. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+1.5)
3. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-DEN OVER 228.5 (+1.3)
2. UTA-MIN OVER 232.5 (+0.5)
3. OKC-SAC OVER 232.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-3.4)
2. BOS-ORL UNDER 226.5 (-0.9)
3. TOR-ATL UNDER 235.5 (-0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+2.3)
2(tie). TORONTO +2.5 (+1.5)
BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -13.5 (+3.5)
2. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+2.7)
3. MEMPHIS -4.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-DEN OVER 228.5 (+2.8)
2. CHI-MIL OVER 239.5 (+2.5)
3. HOU-SAS OVER 223.5. (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-2.5)
2. CLE-WSH UNDER 241.5 (-2.0)
3. CHA-MIA UNDER 241.5 (-0.6)

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