Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 52-62 SU and 41-71-2 ATS (36.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs PHX)
* Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-8 Over (84%) surge in the last 50 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-BKN (spread +4.5, total 228.5)
* HOUSTON is 1-22 SU and 7-15-1 ATS (31.8%) playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-12.5 at UTA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 34-20 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-ORL (o/u at 240.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 197-250 SU but 253-186-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four Seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-9.5 at WSH), CHICAGO (+8.5 at ORL)
* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 43-20 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 127-71 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over last two seasons
* WASHINGTON is 18-6 Over the total playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Dec 2020
Systems/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in MIL-WSH (o/u at 233.5)
* BROOKLYN is 12-4 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
* CHARLOTTE is 137-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-BKN (o/u at 228.5)
* INDIANA is 13-17 SU and 7-22-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 vs CLE)
* MIAMI is 20-9 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 83-55 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-DEN (o/u at 234.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 50-38 SU and 47-40 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+4.5 at LAL)
* HOUSTON is 1-22 SU and 7-15-1 ATS playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-12.5 at UTA)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(533) CLEVELAND at (534) INDIANA
* INDIANA is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with divisional foe Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6.5 vs CLE)
(535) MILWAUKEE at (536) WASHINGTON
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the MIL-WSH series since 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs MIL)
(537) ATLANTA at (538) DETROIT
* Road teams have covered eight straight ATS in the ATL-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+9.5 at DET)
* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-DET (o/u at 233.5)
(539) CHICAGO at (540) ORLANDO
* CHICAGO is 3-1 SU and ATS in the series with Orlando since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+8.5 at ORL)
(541) LA CLIPPERS at (542) MIAMI
* LA CLIPPERS have dominated in trips to Miami lately, going 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+6.5 at MIA)
(543) CHARLOTTE at (544) BROOKLYN
* Home teams have won and covered the last three meetings between Charlotte and Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+4.5 vs CHA)
(545) HOUSTON at (546) UTAH
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Rockets-Jazz series, but did lose yesterday
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+12.5 vs HOU)
(547) DALLAS at (548) DENVER
* DENVER is 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in the last five games hosting Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-11.5 vs DAL)
(549) PHOENIX at (550) LA LAKERS
* Favorites are on 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS run in the last 13 of the Suns-Lakers divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs PHX)
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-LAL (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 168-64 SU and 138-93-1 ATS (59.7%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-9.5 vs ATL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-86 SU and 128-80-3 ATS (61.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 88-35 SU and 75-47-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-4.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 36-125 SU and 65-91-5 ATS (41.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 vs CLE)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-8 Over (84%) surge in the last 50 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-BKN (spread +4.5, total 228.5)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-99 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 314-239 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-UTA (spread +12.5, total 233.5), DAL-DEN (spread -11.5, total 235.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 60-98 SU and 63-90-5 ATS (41.2%) slide, including 34-59-3 ATS in the last 96 games.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+9.5 at DET)
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 171-100 SU but 126-141-4 ATS (47.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 103-124 ATS (45.4%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-9.5 vs ATL), MIAMI (-6.5 vs LAC)
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 90-57-1 (61.2%) rate (sub-system: 52-24-1 to the Over (68.4%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATL-DET (o/u at 233.5), PHX-LAL (o/u at 234.5)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 86-58 SU and 75-67-2 ATS (52.8%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 27-17 ATS (61.4%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+9.5 at DET)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 162-72 SU and 134-96-4 ATS (58.3%) (sub-system: 78-24 SU and 64-34-4 ATS (65.3%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-6.5 at IND)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 352-307 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-DET (o/u at 233.5), LAC-MIA (o/u at 235.5), PHX-LAL (o/u at 234.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 312-322 SU and 285-341-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-11.5 vs DAL)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 177-192 SU and 166-193-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-6.5 at IND)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 97-66 (59.5%) rate since 2021, including 42-23 (64.6%) to the Over in the last 65.
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-UTA (o/u at 233.5)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 52-62 SU and 41-71-2 ATS (36.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 277-324-4 ATS (46.1%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs PHX)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, UTAH, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, ORLANDO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-IND, MIL-WSH, LAC-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-WSH
UNDER – CHI-ORL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BROOKLYN +4.5 (+0.6)
INDIANA +6.5 (+0.6)
3. ATLANTA +9.5 (+0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -11.5 (+1.9)
2. ORLANDO -8.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +11.5 (+2.4)
2. BROOKLYN +4.5 (+0.8)
3. PHOENIX +4.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+2.9)
2. HOUSTON -12.5 (+1.7)
3. ORLANDO -8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-DEN OVER 233.5 (+3.3)
2. HOU-UTA OVER 232.5 (+1.3)
3. PHX-LAL OVER 234.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-MIA UNDER 235.5 (-1.0)
2. CLE-IND UNDER 233.5 (-0.6)
3. MIL-WSH UNDER 233.5 (-0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +6.5 (+2.6)
2. ATLANTA +9.5 (+2.3)
3. CHICAGO +8.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -11.5 (+2.8)
2. MILWAUKEE -9.5 (+1.3)
3. CLEVELAND -6.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-DET OVER 233.5 (+3.6)
2. DAL-DEN OVER 233.5 (+3.4)
3. HOU-UTA OVER 232.5 (+3.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-ORL UNDER 240.5 (-3.4)
2. LAC-MIA UNDER 235.5 (-1.4)
3. PHX-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-0.8)
