Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 17-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
* BOSTON is 14-2 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 230.5)
* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 316-244 SU but 251-294-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DENVER (-1.5 vs HOU)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 18-36 SU and 17-34-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+1.5 at BOS), DALLAS (-1.5 at UTA), MEMPHIS (+4.5 at LAC)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 89-68 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL FIVE GAMES TONIGHT
* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 30-18 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): DET-BOS (o/u at 230.5), DAL-UTA (o/u at 239.5), MEM-LAC (o/u at 228.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 17-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
* BOSTON is 14-2 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BOS (o/u at 230.5)
* LA CLIPPERS are 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS playing at home with 3+ Days Rest since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-4.5 vs MEM)
* LA CLIPPERS are 15-5 Under the total playing in 4th in 10+ Days games since Jan 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-LAC (o/u at 228.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(523) DETROIT at (524) BOSTON
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the DET-BOS series since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-1.5 vs DET)
(525) DALLAS at (526) UTAH
* Under the total is 6-0 in the last six of the Mavs-Jazz set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-UTA (o/u at 239.5)
(527) HOUSTON at (528) DENVER
* Road teams are 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five of the HOU-DEN series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+1.5 at DEN)
(529) MEMPHIS at (530) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the Grizzlies-Clippers series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-LAC (o/u at 228.5)
(531) TORONTO at (532) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings with Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI ML (-225 vs TOR)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 126-90 SU and 129-84-3 ATS (60.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-1.5 at UTA)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 316-244 SU but 251-294-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DENVER (-1.5 vs HOU)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 128-87-2 (59.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-MIA (o/u at 235.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – TOR-MIA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DETROIT +1.5 (+1.6)
MEMPHIS +4.5 (+1.6)
3. HOUSTON +1.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+2.6)
2. DETROIT +1.5 (+0.7)
3. UTAH +1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER -1.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-BOS OVER 230.5 (+2.4)
2. HOU-DEN OVER 236.5 (+2.0)
3. MEM-LAC OVER 228.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DAL-UTA 239.5 (-0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +1.5 (+2.6)
2. UTAH +1.5 (+1.9)
3. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER -1.5 (+1.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-UTA OVER 239.5 (+4.0)
2. DET-BOS OVER 230.5 (+2.7)
3. MEM-LAC OVER 228.5 (+0.6)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOU-DEN UNDER 236.5 (-0.6)
