The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 14-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-DEN (o/u at 250.5) 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 126-92 SU and 129-86-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1.5 at NOP) 

* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 289-162 SU but just 187-251-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ORL) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 201-257 SU but 258-192-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+9.5 at CLE), MEMPHIS (+15.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 57-18 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-BOS (o/u at 225.5), ORL-GSW (o/u at 226.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 78-32 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-BOS (o/u at 225.5), DAL-NOP (o/u at 240.5), UTA-DEN (o/u at 250.5), DET-POR (o/u at 234.5) ORL-GSW (o/u at 226.5) 

* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 142-82 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL SEVEN GAMES TONIGHT 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 104-83 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-CLE (o/u at 238.5), ORL-GSW (o/u at 226.5) 

* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 38-25 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 21-4 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season

* CHARLOTTE is 143-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-CLE (o/u at 238.5)

* CLEVELAND is 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since Dec 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs CHA) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 28-30 SU and 18-37 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ORL) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 125-93 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
* ORLANDO is 109-80 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar ’22
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-GSW (o/u at 226.5) 

* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 46-25 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 22-12 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 32-13 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last three seasons
* BOSTON is 16-3 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Systems/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-BOS (o/u at 225.5) 

* INDIANA is 24-10 SU and 25-9 ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+12.5 at BOS)

* NBA teams playing on road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 27-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 14-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* UTAH is 92-61 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov 2022
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in UTA-DEN (o/u at 250.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(513) CHARLOTTE at (514) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 of the CHA-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+9.5 at CLE) 

(515) INDIANA at (516) BOSTON
* Over the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Pacers-Celtics set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-BOS (o/u at 225.5) 

(517) DALLAS at (518) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Mavs-Pelicans divisional rivalry at the Smoothie King Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-NOP (o/u at 241.5) 

(519) UTAH at (520) DENVER
* DENVER is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-13.5 vs UTA) 

(521) MEMPHIS at (522) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Under the total is 12-3 in the last 15 of the MEM-OKC series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-OKC (o/u at 231.5) 

(523) ORLANDO at (524) GOLDEN STATE
* Home teams are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 of the ORL-GSW non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ORL)

(525) DETROIT at (526) PORTLAND
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six of the DET-POR set
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 at POR) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 126-92 SU and 129-86-3 ATS (60%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1.5 at NOP) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 231-190 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-245 (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-BOS (spread -11.5, total 225.5), MEM-OKC (spread -15.5, total 230.5)
UNDER – UTA-DEN (spread -13.5, total 248.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 28-11 (71.8%) rate in the last 39 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-DEN (o/u at 248.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 176-101 SU but 128-145-4 ATS (46.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 105-128 ATS (45.1%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-9.5 vs CHA) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 99-64-1 ATS (60.7%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+13.5 at DEN) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 289-162 SU but just 187-251-13 ATS (42.7%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ORL)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 168-111 SU and 159-113-7 ATS (58.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-5.5 at POR) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 23-73 SU and 42-54 ATS (43.8%) in their last 96 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+9.5 at CLE) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 handle – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 handle – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 handle – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 handle – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 handle – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 handle – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 handle and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 handle of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, GOLDEN STATE, PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 handle of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 handle of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 handle and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 handle and a ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND ML, BOSTON ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Underthe total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 handle, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-NOP, UTA-DEN, ORL-GSW

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 handle and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-CLE
UNDER – UTA-DEN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 handle of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-NOP, UTA-DEN

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +12.5 (+3.7)
2. MEMPHIS +15.5 (+2.0)
3. ORLANDO +5.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -9.5 (+2.1)
2. DENVER -13.5 (+2.0)
3. DETROIT -5.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +9.5 (+1.5)
2. INDIANA +12.5 (+1.0)
3. ORLANDO +5.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -13.5 (+3.9)
2. DETROIT -5.5 (+1.8)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-POR OVER 234.5 (+0.3)
2. ORL-GSW OVER 226.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-OKC UNDER 230.5 (-3.7)
2. IND-BOS UNDER 225.5 (-3.1)
3. UTA-DEN UNDER 250.5 (-2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +12.5 (+3.4)
2. DALLAS +1.5 (+0.8)
3. MEMPHIS +15.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -9.5 (+3.9)
2. DENVER -13.5 (+2.4)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-GSW OVER 226.5 (+2.0)
2. CHA-CLE OVER 238.5 (+1.9)
3. DET-POR OVER 234.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-OKC UNDER 230.5 (-6.1)
2. IND-BOS UNDER 225.5 (-2.5)
3. UTA-DEN UNDER 250.5 (-2.0)

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