The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, December 8, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* PHOENIX is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS playing on the ROAD in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Feb 2023
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+10.5 at MIN) 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-88 SU and 128-82-3 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 at IND) 

* Teams on losing streaks of six games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 8-36 SU and 14-27-3 ATS (40.7%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs SAS) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 198-254 SU but 255-189-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 at IND) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 35-21 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-IND (o/u at 234.5) 

* PHOENIX is 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS playing on the road in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Feb 2023
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+10.5 at MIN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 43-13 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-MIN (o/u at 223.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(563) SACRAMENTO at (564) INDIANA|
* Underdogs are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the SAC-IND non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 at IND) 

(565) PHOENIX at (566) MINNESOTA
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Suns-Twolves series at Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-MIN (o/u at 223.5)

(567) SAN ANTONIO at (568) NEW ORLEANS
* Over the total has converted in both meetings between SAS and NOP this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-NOP (o/u at 236.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-88 SU and 128-82-3 ATS (61%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 at IND)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 37-127 SU and 66-93-5 ATS (41.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-187 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 322-241 (57.2%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – PHX-MIN (spread -10.5, total 223.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 42-9 SU and 34-17 ATS (66.7%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-9.5 at NOP) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 288-157 SU but just 186-246-13 ATS (43.1%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs PHX)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 159-194 SU and 154-195-4 ATS (44.1%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-4.5 vs SAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 143-25 SU but 72-93-3 ATS (43.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs PHX) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 125-87-2 (59%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-NOP (o/u at 236.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of six games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 8-36 SU and 14-27-3 ATS (40.7%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+9.5 vs SAS)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): INDIANA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-NOP 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – SAC-IND 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+0.8)
2. INDIANA -4.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX +10.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -9.5 (+2.1)
2. INDIANA -4.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-MIN OVER 223.5 (+1.2)
2. SAS-NOP OVER 236.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAC-IND UNDER 234.5 (-2.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+1.5)
2. INDIANA -4.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-MIN OVER 223.5 (+1.5)
2. SAS-NOP OVER 236.5 (+0.9)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAC-IND UNDER 234.5 (-2.7)

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