Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, February 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites are on an extended 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run in the Spurs-Pistons non-conference set since February 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 vs SAS)
* Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 35-18-1 (66%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-DET (o/u at 232.5)
* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 135-108 SU and 137-103-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+3.5 at MEM)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 90-42 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in1 0+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL THREE GAMES TONIGHT
* DETROIT is 14-3 Under the total (18%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-DET (spread -1.5, total 232.5)
* HOUSTON is 18-7 Under the total (72%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-HOU (o/u at 229.5)
* SAN ANTONIO is 11-18 SU and 9-20 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 at DET)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(573) SAN ANTONIO at (574) DETROIT
* Favorites are on an extended 19-2 SU and 18-3 ATS run in the SAS-DET non-conference set since February 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-1.5 vs SAS)
(575) SACRAMENTO at (576) MEMPHIS
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 matchups between SAC and MEM at FedEx Forum
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-MEM (o/u at 233.5)
(577) UTAH at (578) HOUSTON
* Home teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Jazz-Rockets series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-13.5 vs UTA)
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 overall head-to-head games as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-HOU (o/u at 228.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 135-108 SU and 137-103-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+3.5 at MEM)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-108 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 248-210 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 338-266 (56%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – UTA-HOU (spread -13.5, total 229.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 189-110 SU but 138-157-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 110-139 ATS (44.2%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-3.5 vs SAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 35-18-1 (66%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-DET (o/u at 232.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 302-346-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 38-157 SU and 86-103-6 ATS (45.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 at DET), SACRAMENTO (+3.5 at MEM)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 72-97-1 ATS (42.6%) in the next game, including 33-48 ATS (40.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (+1.5 at DET)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS ML, HOUSTON ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAS-DET, UTA-HOU
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+1.2)
2. SAN ANTONIO +1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOUSTON -13.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -13.5 (+2.5)
2. MEMPHIS -3.5 (+0.4)
3. DETROIT -1.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-HOU OVER 228.5 (+1.2)
2. SAS-DET OVER 232.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAC-MEM UNDER 233.5 (-0.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+2.4)
2. SAN ANTONIO +1.5 (+0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOUSTON -13.5 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). SAC-MEM OVER 233.5 (+1.0)
UTA-HOU OVER 228.5 (+1.0)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: SAS-DET UNDER 232.5 (-4.0)
