Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* LA CLIPPERS are on an extended 16-2 ATS run versus Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at WSH)
* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 171-209 SU and 165-211-4 ATS (43.9%) (sub-system: 18-44 SU and 19-41-2 ATS (31.7%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 16-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-DET (o/u at 224.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-47 SU and 59-40 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* BROOKLYN is 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS playing in the back-to-back away/home scenario since December 2020
System/Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 at BKN)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-47 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-BKN (o/u at 216.5)
* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 83-59 SU and 82-59-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+2.5 at ATL)
* ATLANTA is 132-97 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ATL (o/u at 232.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 16-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 23-9 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in BOS-DET (o/u at 224.5)
* CLEVELAND is 14-2 SU and 11-5 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since December 2024
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 83-16 SU and 61-35-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in One Day Rest scenario are 205-263 SU but 263-197-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trends Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at CLE)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 48-24 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-CLE (o/u at 231.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 34-32 SU and 24-39 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs MIA)
* GOLDEN STATE is 130-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-GSW (o/u at 239.5)
* INDIANA is 13-23 SU and 8-27-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 205-263 SU but 263-197-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of INDIANA (+6.5 at PHI)
* INDIANA is 15-3 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-PHI (o/u at 226.5)
* UTAH is 97-65 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 95-64 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 240.5)
* WASHINGTON is 5-38 SU and 13-30 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs LAC)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(561) MILWAUKEE at (562) ATLANTA
* MILWAUKEE is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four trips to Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+2.5 at ATL)
(563) OKLAHOMA CITY at (564) CLEVELAND
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 4-1 ATS in the last five games versus Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-6.5 at CLE)
(565) LA CLIPPERS at (566) WASHINGTON
* LA CLIPPERS are on an extended 16-2 ATS run versus Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at WSH)
(567) DALLAS at (568) NEW YORK
* DALLAS is on a 5-2 SU and ATS surge in the last seven games with NYK
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+10.5 at NYK)
(569) UTAH at (570) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the UTA-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+16.5 at SAS)
(571) INDIANA at (572) PHILADELPHIA
* Home teams were 3-0 ATS in the IND-PHI set in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-6.5 vs IND)
(573) PHOENIX at (574) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are 4-0 SU and ATS in the PHX-BKN non-conference series since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-8.5 at BKN)
(575) BOSTON at (576) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups with Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 vs BOS)
(577) MIAMI at (578) GOLDEN STATE
* MIAMI is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the cross-country series with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+5.5 at GSW)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 176-66 SU and 141-100-1 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DETROIT vs BOS, -3.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 13-41 SU and 22-30-2 ATS (42.3%) in their last 54 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 130-103 (55.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 241-201 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-257 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-NYK (spread -10.5, total 230.5), UTA-SAS (spread -16.5, total 240.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 92-62 SU and 83-69-2 ATS (54.6%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 33-17 ATS (66%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+10.5 at NYK)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 106-68-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs LAC), UTAH (+16.5 at SAS)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 298-165 SU but just 193-257-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-16.5 vs UTA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 327-252 SU but 264-300-15 ATS (46.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): DETROIT (-3.5 vs BOS)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 171-209 SU and 165-211-4 ATS (43.9%) (sub-system: 18-44 SU and 19-41-2 ATS (31.7%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 376-328 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYK (o/u at 230.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 328-343 SU and 302-361-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 vs OKC)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 189-204 SU and 177-206-10 ATS (46.2%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+3.5 at DET), MIAMI (+5.5 at GSW)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 170-113 SU and 161-115-7 ATS (58.3%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3.5 vs BOS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 89-23 SU and 60-49-3 ATS (55%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+DaysRest have had their games go Over the total at a 132-93-2 (58.7%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-WSH (o/u at 225.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 37-84 SU but 66-55 ATS (54.5%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs LAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CLIPPERS, UTAH, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND, UTAH, BOSTON, MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-NYK, UTA-SAS, IND-PHI, PHX-BKN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for the number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-NYK
UNDER – UTA-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – PHX-BKN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-NYK
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+1.9)
2. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+1.8)
3. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -7.5 (+2.0)
2. DETROIT -3.5 (+0.9)
3. SAN ANTONIO -16.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +16.5 (+3.3)
2. MIAMI +5.5 (+3.1)
3. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -6.5 (+1.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA -6.5 (+1.7)
3. NEW YORK -10.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-PHI OVER 226.5 (+3.1)
2. OKC-CLE OVER 231.5 (+2.2)
3. UTA-SAS OVER 240.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-BKN UNDER 216.5 (-7.9)
2. BOS-DET UNDER 224.5 (-3.6)
3. LAC-WSH UNDER 226.5 (-3.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +2.5 (+2.7)
2. MIAMI +5.5 (+2.3)
3. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS -7.5 (+3.0)
2. SAN ANTONIO -16.5 (+1.9)
3. DETROIT -3.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-CLE OVER 231.5 (+2.8)
2. LAC-WSH OVER 226.5 (+2.3)
3. UTA-SAS OVER 240.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-BKN UNDER 216.5 (-8.8)
2. MIA-GSW UNDER 239.5 (-3.5)
3. MIL-ATL UNDER 232.5 (-3.1)
