The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, January 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 170-66 SU and 139-96-1 ATS (59.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 vs PHX) 

* Road teams are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the Knicks-Pistons series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at DET) 

* NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 102-67 (60.4%) rate since 2021, including 47-24 (66.2%) to the Over in the last 71.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-OKC (o/u at 233.5) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 35-33 SU and 30-38 ATS vs. teams in 4thin6Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing on road in OneDayRest scenario are 53-42 SU and 57-36 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at DET), CHARLOTTE (+15.5 at OKC) 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 52-43 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-DET (o/u at 232.5) 

* ATLANTA is 18-32 SU and 15-35 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since April 2021
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 at TOR) 

* ATLANTA is 130-92 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-TOR (o/u at 234.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 143-103 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
* NBA teams playing on road in OneDayRest scenario are 52-43 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-OKC (o/u at 234.5)

* DENVER is 84-51 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 90-61 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-PHI (o/u at 229.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 126-95 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-LAC (o/u at 225.5) 

* HOUSTON is 119-91 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-HOU (o/u at 222.5) 

* PORTLAND is 28-30 SU but 39-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-6.5 vs UTA) 

* PORTLAND is 71-38 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
* UTAH is 92-64 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-UTA (o/u at 241.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) NEW YORK at (502) DETROIT
* Road teams are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 of the NYK-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at DET)

(503) CHICAGO at (504) BOSTON
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last seven of the CHI-BOS series
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-11.5 vs CHI) 

(505) ATLANTA at (506) TORONTO
* TORONTO is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-2.5 vs ATL) 

(507) PHOENIX at (508) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 vs PHX) 

(509) CHARLOTTE at (510) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 7-1 in the Hornets-Thunder series at OKC since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-OKC (o/u at 234.5) 

(511) DENVER at (512) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is on an extended 21-7-2 ATS run in the non-conference series with Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILDELPHIA (-11.5 vs DEN) 

(513) UTAH at (514) PORTLAND
* UTAH is 7-0 ATS in the last seven games with Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 at POR) 

(515) GOLDEN STATE at (516) LA CLIPPERS
* LA CLIPPERS are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games when hosting divisional foe Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs GSW) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 170-66 SU and 139-96-1 ATS (59.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 vs PHX) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 43-129 SU and 73-94-5 ATS (43.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs GSW) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-101 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 236-194 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-254 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-BOS (spread -11.5, total 235.5), CHA-OKC (spread -15.5, total 233.5), DEN-PHI (spread -11.5, total 229.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorites
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 167-76 SU and 138-101-4 ATS (57.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at DET)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 320-250 SU but 256-299-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): BOSTON (-11.5 vs CHI) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 168-204 SU and 163-205-4 ATS (44.3%) since late-January 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-11.5 vs DEN), CHARLOTTE (+15.5 at OKC) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 102-67 (60.4%) rate since 2021, including 47-24 (66.2%) to the Over in the last 71.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-OKC (o/u at 233.5) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, UTAH, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, PHILADELPHIA, UTAH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON ML, HOUSTON ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, PORTLAND ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYK-DET

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +11.5 (+5.8)
2. CHARLOTTE +15.5 (+1.5)
3. PHOENIX +8.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -11.5 (+1.1)
2. TORONTO -2.5 (+0.9)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +11.5 (+3.5)
2. UTAH +6.5 (+0.9)
3. DETROIT +2.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -11.5 (+2.4)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.0)
3. TORONTO -2.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-PHI OVER 229.5 (+8.2)
2. UTA-POR OVER 241.5 (+1.1)
3. PHX-HOU OVER 222.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-BOS UNDER 237.5 (-1.8)
2. CHA-OKC UNDER 234.5 (-1.3)
3. ATL-TOR UNDER 234.5 (-1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +11.5 (+4.9)
2. PHOENIX +8.5 (+0.9)
3. CHARLOTTE +15.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -1.5 (+2.8)
2. BOSTON -11.5 (+1.8)
3. PORTLAND -6.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-PHI OVER 229.5 (+8.4)
2. UTA-POR OVER 241.5 (+1.0)
3. NYK-DET OVER 232.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-BOS UNDER 237.5 (-3.1)
2. PHX-HOU UNDER 222.5 (-2.3)
3. CHA-OKC UNDER 234.5 (-1.4)

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