The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 10, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* DALLAS is just 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+8.5 at ATL)

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 113-74-1 ATS (60.4%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 at PHI)

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 140-109 SU and 142-104-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at SAC)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* PHILADELPHIA is 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS (83.3%) on the back end of back-to-back games
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 vs MEM)

* NBA teams playing in A2H b2b scenario are 26-10 Under the total vs. teams in A2A b2b games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-PHI (o/u at 227.5)

* MIAMI is 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS (77.8%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-15.5 vs WSH)

* MIAMI is 29-12 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-MIA (o/u at 242.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario were 68-55 SU and 68-54 ATS vs. teams in b2b games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-14.5 at BKN)

* DALLAS is just 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS (26.3%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 223-283 SU but 282-216-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DALLAS (+8.5 at ATL)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario were 54-29 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in the 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 27-13 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest scenario are 176-115 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DAL-ATL (o/u at 240.5)

* HOUSTON is 19-10 Under the total (65.5%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-HOU (o/u at 217.5)

* MILWAUKEE is 26-10 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-MIL (o/u at 217.5)

* SACRAMENTO is 9-17 SU and 8-18 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs IND)

* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario were 110-83 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-SAC (o/u at 236.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 59-50 SU and 63-44 ATS vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
* GOLDEN STATE is 14-17 SU and 7-23-1 ATS playing at home in a 3rd in 4 Days game since November 2023
System/Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 at GSW)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 59-50 Over the total vs. teams in A2H b2b games over the last two seasons
* GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 Over the total (83.3%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points this season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-GSW (o/u at 227.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 154-111 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-POR (o/u at 228.5)

* LA LAKERS are 1-12 SU and ATS (7.7%) in their last 13 games as an underdog
* LA LAKERS are 38-15 SU and 36-17 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA LAKERS (+3.5 vs MIN)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(557) MEMPHIS at (558) PHILADELPHIA
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Grizzlies-76ers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-PHI (o/u at 227.5)

(559) WASHINGTON at (560) MIAMI
* Road teams are 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 non-neutral meetings between Washington and Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIA)

(561) DETROIT at (562) BROOKLYN
* Under the total is 5-1 in DET-BKN set since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-BKN (o/u at 217.5)

(563) PHOENIX at (564) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE has won and covered all seven games hosting Phoenix since Game 3 of the 2021 Finals
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs PHX)

(565) TORONTO at (566) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of Raptors-Rockets non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-HOU (o/u at 217.5)

(567) BOSTON at (568) SAN ANTONIO
* Favorites are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of this series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 vs BOS)

(569) DALLAS at (570) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Mavs-Hawks non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 at ATL)

(571) INDIANA at (572) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Pacers-Kings series at the Golden 1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at SAC)

(573) CHICAGO at (574) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games hosting Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-6.5 vs CHI)

(575) CHARLOTTE at (576) PORTLAND
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of Hornets-Trail Blazers series at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-2.5 at POR)

(577) MINNESOTA at (578) LA LAKERS
* Over the total has converted in four of the last five meetings between Minnesota and LA Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-LAL (o/u at 234.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 186-68 SU and 148-105-1 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR SAN ANTONIO vs BOS (-3.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 140-109 SU and 142-104-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+3.5 at SAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-110 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 253-212 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 344-274 (55.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-BKN (spread +14.5, total 217.5)
UNDER – WSH-MIA (spread -15.5, total 242.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 190-112 SU but 138-160-4 ATS (46.3%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 110-142 ATS (43.7%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-5.5 vs TOR)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 113-74-1 ATS (60.4%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 at PHI)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 180-84 SU and 147-113-4 ATS (56.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-3.5 at LAL)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 340-263 SU but 274-314-15 ATS (46.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): SACRAMENTO (-3.5 vs IND)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next-game stumbles versus non-conference
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 176-218 SU and 171-219-4 ATS (43.8%) since late January 2021.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+3.5 at SAS)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 344-354 SU and 318-372-8 ATS (46.1%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+14.5 vs DET), SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 vs BOS)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 197-173 SU and 202-158-10 ATS (56.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs PHX)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 108-74 (59.3%) rate since 2021, including 53-31 (63.1%) to the Over in the last eight.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-PHI (o/u at 227.5)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 150-27 SU BUT 77-97-3 ATS (44.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): MIAMI (-15.5 vs WSH)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+DaysRest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-104-2 (57%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-ATL (o/u at 240.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 114-132 SU but 138-106-3 ATS (56.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+3.5 at PHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-42 SU and 17-32-4 ATS (34.7%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIA)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-88 SU but 69-57 ATS (54.8%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIA), DALLAS (+8.5 at ATL)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 309-354-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been bad in road games, going 41-161 SU and 89-107-6 ATS (45.4%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at MIA), DALLAS (+8.5 at ATL), INDIANA (+3.5 at SAC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and a ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly two-thirds of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and, for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, PHOENIX, CHARLOTTE, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, PHOENIX, GOLDEN STATE, CHARLOTTE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MINNESOTA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-PHI, BOS-SAS, CHA-POR

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and a ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MEM-PHI
UNDER – IND-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-BKN, PHX-MIL, TOR-HOU

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+2.8)
2. TORONTO +5.5 (+1.7)
3. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+1.5)
2. SAN ANTONIO -3.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+3.1)
2. CHICAGO +6.5 (+2.7)
3. DALLAS +8.5 (+2.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -3.5 (+1.7)
2. SACRAMENTO -3.5 (+1.4)
3. MIAMI -15.5 (+0.3)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-BKN OVER 217.5 (+1.9)
2. DAL-ATL OVER 240.5 (+1.3)
3. MEM-PHI OVER 227.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MIN-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-3.2)
2. BOS-SAS UNDER 222.5 (-3.0)
3. CHI-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.8)
3. TORONTO +5.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. SAN ANTONIO -3.5 (+2.0)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+1.5)
3. MIAMI -15.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TOR-HOU OVER 217.5 (+1.3)
2. DAL-ATL OVER 240.5 (+1.2)
3. PHX-MIL OVER 217.5 (+0.8)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOS-SAS UNDER 222.5 (-4.9)
2. CHI-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-4.7)
3. MIN-LAL UNDER 234.5 (-4.4)

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