Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 16, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Favorites have won and covered the last 11 meetings between Memphis and Chicago at the United Center
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6.5 vs MEM)
* NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 97-63-1 (60.6%) rate (sub-system: 56-28-1 to the Over (66.7%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 51-17 SU and 46-20-2 ATS (69.7%) in their last 68 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 at WSH)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 19-37 SU and 21-34-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+8.5 at NOP)
* DALLAS is 15-7 Over the total playing on the road in the back-to-back away scenario since April 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
* ATLANTA is 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS (0%) at a home favorite of -1 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs ORL)
* ORLANDO is 122-92 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
* ATLANTA is 136-107 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-ATL (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 55-32 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-CHI (o/u at 243.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 0-10 SU and ATS (0%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 at WSH)
* GOLDEN STATE is 16-3 Over the total (84.2%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-WSH (spread -7.5, total 232.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 112-87 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-BOS (o/u at 213.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 225-288 SU but 286-219-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+2.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON is 21-10 Under the total (67.7%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-HOU (o/u at 226.5)
* PORTLAND is 32-31 SU but 43-18 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-10.5 at BKN)
* PORTLAND is 20-8 Over the total (71.4%) as a favorite this season
* PORTLAND is 72-42 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr ’21
* BROOKLYN is 23-9 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-BKN (o/u at 221.5)
* SAN ANTONIO is 14-18 SU and 11-21 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-8.5 at LAC)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) GOLDEN STATE at (502) WASHINGTON
* Road teams are 4-1-1 ATS in the last six of the GSW-WSH cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 at WSH)
(503) ORLANDO at (504) ATLANTA
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the ORL-ATL divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs ORL)
(505) PORTLAND at (506) BROOKLYN
* Road teams are on 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS surge in the last 13 non-neutral meetings between Portland and Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-10.5 at BKN)
(507) DALLAS at (508) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six matchups with divisional foe Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-8.5 vs DAL)
(509) PHOENIX at (510) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight games with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-8.5 vs PHX)
(511) MEMPHIS at (512) CHICAGO
* Favorites have won and covered the last 11 meetings between Memphis and Chicago at the United Center
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6.5 vs MEM)
(513) LA LAKERS at (514) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Lakers-Rockets set at Houston
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-HOU (o/u at 226.5)
(515) SAN ANTONIO at (516) LA CLIPPERS
* Over the total is 4-1 in the Spurs-Clippers series since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-LAC (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 138-113 (55%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 259-214 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-278 (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY): OVER – POR-BKN (spread -10.5, total 221.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 26-14 SU and 25-13-2 ATS (65.8%) since early-March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs ORL)
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 53-15 SU and 40-28 ATS (58.8%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-8.5 vs DAL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 97-63-1 (60.6%) rate (sub-system: 56-28-1 to the Over (66.7%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-NOP (o/u at 240.5)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 311-171 SU but just 201-268-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-2.5 vs LAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 349-356 SU and 323-374-8 ATS (46.3%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+8.5 at NOP)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 51-17 SU and 46-20-2 ATS (69.7%) in their last 68 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-105-2 (56.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-CHI (o/u at 243.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 114-136 SU but 140-108-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 at WSH), MEMPHIS (+6.5 at CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 315-361-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 42-167 SU and 92-111-6 ATS (45.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs GSW), ORLANDO (+3.5 at ATL), ATLANTA (-3.5 vs ORL), MEMPHIS (+6.5 at CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 75-99-1 ATS (43.1%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-3.5 vs ORL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:20 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS, NEW ORLEANS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PORTLAND, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-WSH, ORL-ATL, POR=BKN, DAL-NOP, MEM-CHI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – PHX-BOS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-WSH, DAL-NOP, MEM-CHI
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +8.5 (+3.7)
2. DALLAS +8.5 (+2.1)
3. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: BOSTON -8.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +8.5 (+4.7)
2(tie). BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.8)
LA CLIPPERS +8.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -2.5 (+0.6)
2. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-CHI OVER 243.5 (+0.9)
2. DAL-NOP OVER 240.5 (+0.3)
3. LAL-HOU OVER 226.5 (+0.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-LAC UNDER 234.5 (-2.3)
2. POR-BKN UNDER 221.5 (-0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +8.5 (+3.2)
2. DALLAS +8.5 (+1.9)
3. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -7.5 (+1.9)
2. HOUSTON -2.5 (+1.6)
3. BOSTON -8.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-NOP OVER 240.5 (+3.2)
2. MEM-CHI OVER 243.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-LAC UNDER 234.5 (-2.9)
2. POR-BKN UNDER 221.5 (-2.6)
3. PHX-BOS UNDER 214.5 (-1.3)
