Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 23, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is a perfect 9-0 in the Rockets-Bulls non-conference series since the start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-CHI (o/u at 229.5)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-2 SU and 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-13.5 vs IND)
* GOLDEN STATE is 1-10 SU and ATS (9.1%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at DAL)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 227-290 SU but 288-221-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
* DETROIT is 10-2 SU and ATS (83.3%) as an underdog this season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY ON LA LAKERS, 1 PLAY ON DETROIT
* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 56-33 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-DET (o/u at 226.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 114-91 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKC-PHI (o/u at 223.5), GSW-DAL (o/u at 230.5), TOR-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
* ATLANTA is 138-108 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-ATL (o/u at 239.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 1-10 SU and ATS (9.1%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG this season
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at DAL)
* GOLDEN STATE is 138-105 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DAL (o/u at 230.5)
* MIAMI is 32-13 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-MIA (o/u at 240.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 96-19 SU and 68-44-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at PHI)
* ORLANDO is 122-95 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-ORL (o/u at 233.5)
* PORTLAND is 34-31 SU but 44-19 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-15.5 vs BKN)
* PORTLAND is 73-43 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
* PORTLAND is 21-9 Over the total (70%) as a favorite this season
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 26-12 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in BKN-POR (o/u at 218.5)
* SAN ANTONIO is 15-18 SU and 11-22 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at MIA)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 42-21 SU and 40-21-2 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 85-48 SU and 81-50-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four seasons
Systems Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+8.5 vs HOU)
* MILWAUKEE is 23-9 Under the total (71.9%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-LAC (o/u at 223.5)
* TORONTO is 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS (73.7%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-12.5 at UTA)
* UTAH is 105-76 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) MEMPHIS at (532) ATLANTA
* Road teams are 6-0 SU and ATS in the MEM-ATL set since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+14.5 at ATL)
(533) LA LAKERS at (534) DETROIT
* DETROIT is 3-0 SU and ATS versus LAL since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+2.5 vs LAL)
(535) INDIANA at (536) ORLANDO
* Home teams are on a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS surge in the Pacers-Magic series
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-13.5 vs IND)
(537) OKLAHOMA CITY at (538) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 of the OKC-PHI non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at PHI)
(539) SAN ANTONIO at (540) MIAMI
* Home teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the SAS-MIA set since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+4.5 vs SAS)
(541) HOUSTON at (542) CHICAGO
* Over the total is a perfect 9-0 in the Rockets-Bulls non-conference series since the start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-CHI (o/u at 229.5)
(543) TORONTO at (544) UTAH
* Over the total has converted in all four meetings between TOR and UTA at the Delta Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-UTA (o/u at 231.5)
(545) GOLDEN STATE at (546) DALLAS
* Home teams are on an extended 17-5 SU and ATS run in the GSW-DAL series, including a 9-1 ATS surge by Dallas at American Airlines Center
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1.5 vs GSW)
(547) BROOKLYN at (548) PORTLAND
* Underdogs are on a 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS run in the BKN-POR cross-country set at the Moda Center
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+15.5 at POR)
(549) MILWAUKEE at (550) LA CLIPPERS
* MILWAUKEE is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+13.5 at LAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 15-48 SU and 27-34-2 ATS (44.3%) in their last 63 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+15.5 vs OKC)
WATCH FOR MIAMI vs SAS (+4.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 139-114 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 263-220 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 347-280 (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-ORL (spread -13.5, total 232.5), OKC-PHI (spread +15.5, total 223.5), MEM-ATL (spread -14.5, total 239.5), TOR-UTA (spread +12.5, total 230.5), BKN-POR (spread -15.5, total 218.5), MIL-LAC (spread -13.5, total 224.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 116-78-1 ATS (59.8%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+13.5 at ORL), MIAMI (+4.5 vs SAS), DALLAS (+1.5 vs GSW)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 314-171 SU but just 203-269-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (-2.5 at DET), HOUSTON (-8.5 at CHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 350-359 SU and 324-377-8 ATS (46.2%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (-2.5 at DET)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 112-77 (59.3%) rate since 2021, including 57-34 (62.6%) to the Over in the last 91.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-POR (o/u at 219.5)
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-85 SU and 51-61 ATS (45.5%) in their last 112 tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (+13.5 at ORL), BROOKLYN (+15.5 at POR)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 97-68 SU and 99-65-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 165 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 99-24 SU and 67-53-3 ATS (55.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at PHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 33-9 SU but 15-27 ATS (35.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 28-14 (66.7%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at PHI)
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-PHI (o/u at 223.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-2 SU and 13-4-1 ATS (76.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-13.5 vs IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 117-137 SU but 143-109-3 ATS (56.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (-13.5 vs IND), MIAMI (+4.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-96 SU but 73-61 ATS (54.5%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+4.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 324-371-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 42-171 SU and 93-114-6 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (-2.5 at DET), INDIANA (+13.5 at ORL), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at PHI), BROOKLYN (+15.5 at POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 78-103-1 ATS (43.1%) in the next game, including 37-54 ATS (40.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA LAKERS (-2.5 at DET), OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at PHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, SAN ANTONIO, HOUSTON, TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% higher in these rarer contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS, SAN ANTONIO, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GSW-DAL, BKN-POR, MIL-LAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-ORL, GSW-DAL
UNDER – SAS-MIA, MEM-ATL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – BKN-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +15.5 (+2.4)
2. CHICAGO +8.5 (+1.5)
3. INDIANA +13.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -12.5 (+1.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +1.5 (+4.3)
2. MILWAUKEE +13.5 (+2.7)
MEMPHIS +14.5 (+2.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -12.5 (+1.4)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-DAL OVER 230.5 (+2.0)
2. SAS-MIA OVER 239.5 (+1.3)
3. OKC-PHI OVER 224.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-LAC UNDER 222.5 (-1.9)
2. HOU-CHI UNDER 229.5 (-1.4)
3. BKN-POR UNDER 218.5 (-1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +13.5 (+1.9)
2. MILWAUKEE +13.5 (+1.7)
3. CHICAGO +8.5 (+1.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -12.5 (+2.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.2)
3. SAN ANTONIO -4.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-ORL OVER 233.5 (+5.2)
2. LAL-DET OVER 226.5 (+2.3)
3. GSW-DAL OVER 230.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-LAC UNDER 222.5 (-4.3)
2. BKN-POR UNDER 218.5 (-2.5)
3. HOU-CHI UNDER 229.5 (-1.0)
