Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 30, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 163-62 SU and 133-90-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 225 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DAL)
* Over the total is 10-1 in last 11 of the Bulls-Spurs non-conference series in San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SAS (o/u at 244.5)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 121-143 SU but 148-114-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+17.5 vs CLE)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 62-56 SU and 66-50 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 at MIA)
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 64-54 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* PHILADELPHIA is 29-11 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-MIA (o/u at 246.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 228-294 SU but 289-225-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DAL)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 119-96 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SAS (o/u at 244.5)
* PHOENIX is 14-2 SU and ATS (87.5%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
* MEMPHIS is 12-5 SU and ATS playing in 4th Straight Home games since December 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OF PHOENIX, 1 PLAY OF MEMPHIS
* ATLANTA is 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS (12.5%) at a home favorite of -1 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs BOS)
* ATLANTA is 140-109 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-ATL (o/u at 222.5)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 19-38 SU and 21-35-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+16.5 at LAL)
* LA LAKERS are 13-5 Over the total (72.2%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 57-35 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-LAL (o/u at 236.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 75-60 SU and 73-61 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* DETROIT is 11-2 SU and ATS (84.6%) as an underdog this season
* OKLAHOMA CITY is just 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS (25%) on the back end of back-to-back games
System/Trends Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+11.5 at OKC)
* CLEVELAND is 17-3 SU and 12-8 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since December 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-17.5 at UTA)
* UTAH is 108-76 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-UTA (o/u at 242.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(557) PHILADELPHIA at (558) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games versus Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 vs PHI)
(559) BOSTON at (560) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Celtics-Hawks set at State Farm Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-ATL (o/u at 222.5)
(561) PHOENIX at (562) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in the PHX-MEM series since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-12.5 at MEM)
(563) CHICAGO at (564) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 10-1 in the last 11 of the Bulls-Spurs non-conference series in San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SAS (o/u at 244.5)
(565) MINNESOTA at (566) DALLAS
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Twolves-Mavs series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-DAL (o/u at 235.5)
(567) CLEVELAND at (568) UTAH
* Road teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the CLE-UTA set since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-17.5 at UTA)
(569) DETROIT at (570) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings between Detroit and Oklahoma City at the Paycom Center
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs DET)
(571) WASHINGTON at (572) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS have won and covered all three matchups with Washington since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-16.5 vs WSH)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 140-116 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 272-226 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 351-282 (55.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-MEM (spread +12.5, total 229.5), CHI-SAS (spread -18.5, total 244.5), CLE-UTA (spread +17.5, total 242.5), DET-OKC (spread -11.5, total 218.5), WSH-LAL (spread -16.5, total 236.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 119-80-1 ATS (59.8%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 vs PHI)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 163-62 SU and 133-90-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 225 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-7.5 at DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 400-352 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-SAS (o/u at 244.5), DET-OKC (o/u at 218.5), WSH-LAL (o/u at 236.5)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 183-122 SU and 172-126-7 ATS (57.7%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+11.5 at OKC)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 115-77 (59.9%) rate since 2021, including 60-34 (63.8%) to the Over in the last 94.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-LAL (o/u at 236.5)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 158-29 SU but 81-103-3 ATS (44%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 35-9 SU but 17-27 ATS (38.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 28-16 (63.6%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs CHI)
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SAS (o/u at 244.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+DaysRest have had their games go Over the total at a 143-107-2 (57.2%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-UTA (o/u at 242.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 121-143 SU but 148-114-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+17.5 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 79-105-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs CHI)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, PHOENIX, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DALLAS, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, CLEVELAND, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BOSTON, PHOENIX, DALLAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHI-MIA, DET-OKC, WSH-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – PHX-MEM, MIN-DAL, WSH-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – DET-OKC
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +12.5 (+2.3)
2. DALLAS +7.5 (+1.0)
3. CHICAGO +18.5 (+0.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -16.5 (+5.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+0.8)
3. CLEVELAND -17.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +12.5 (+5.7)
2. DALLAS +7.5 (+2.9)
3. CHICAGO +18.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+1.0)
2. ATLANTA -1.5 (+0.5)
3. CLEVELAND -17.5 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-OKC OVER 218.5 (+2.0)
2. MIN-DAL OVER 235.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-MIA UNDER 246.5 (-3.5)
2. BOS-ATL UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)
3. CHI-SAS UNDER 244.5 (-1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI +2.5 (+2.0)
2. MEMPHIS +12.5 (+1.6)
3. DETROIT +11.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -16.5 (+4.1)
2. CLEVELAND -17.5 (+1.4)
3. MINNESOTA -7.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-LAL OVER 236.5 (+3.4)
2. DET-OKC OVER 218.5 (+3.2)
3. MIN-DAL OVER 235.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-MIA UNDER 246.5 (-4.3)
2. PHX-MEM UNDER 229.5 (-1.5)
3. CHI-SAS UNDER 244.5 9-0.9)
