The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* OKLAHOMA CITY has dominated in their last 13 trips to New Orleans, going 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 at NOP) 

* Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 59-96 SU and 62-88-5 ATS (41.3%) slide, including 33-57-3 ATS in the last 93 games and 20-39 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS (+13.5 at MIN), CHICAGO (+14.5 at DEN) 

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 9-36 SU and 11-30-4 ATS (26.8%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+10.5 at DET) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away game scenario are 16-29 SU and 17-27-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+5.5 at PHI) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 32-16 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-PHI (o/u at 220.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 60-38 SU but 40-56-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games since the start of last season
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10.5 vs IND) 

* CHARLOTTE is 135-99 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-TOR (o/u at 238.5) 

* TORONTO is 14-12 SU and 18-7 ATS playing at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-8.5 vs CHA) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 47-37 SU and 46-37 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 68-13 SU and 53-25-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since Apr 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 at NOP)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(545) LA CLIPPERS (4-9) at (546) PHILADELPHIA (7-5)
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the LAC-PHI cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-PHI (o/u at 220.5) 

(547) INDIANA (1-12) at (548) DETROIT (11-2)
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the IND-DET divisional series in the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-DET (o/u at 231.5)

* Favorites are on a 7-1 SU and ATS surge in the series
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 vs IND) 

(549) MILWAUKEE (8-6) at (550) CLEVELAND (9-5)
* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the MIL-CLE divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+7.5 at CLE) 

(551) NEW YORK (8-4) at (552) MIAMI (7-6)
* Home teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Knicks-Heat series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 at NYK) 

(553) CHARLOTTE (4-9) at (554) TORONTO (8-5)
* Toronto is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games hosting Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-8.5 vs CHA) 

(555) OKLAHOMA CITY (13-1) at (556) NEW ORLEANS (2-11)
* OKLAHOMA CITY has dominated in their last 13 trips to New Orleans, going 12-1 SU and 13-0 ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 at NOP) 

(557) DALLAS (4-10) at (558) MINNESOTA (8-5)
* DALLAS has covered in six of their last seven visits to Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+13.5 at MIN)

(559) CHICAGO (6-6) at (560) DENVER (10-2)
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the CHI-DEN non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-DEN (o/u at 239.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 117-96 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 228-183 (55.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 304-232 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-NOP (spread +17.5, total 224.5), DAL-MIN (spread -13.5, total 231.5), CHI-DEN (spread -14.5, total 239.5)
UNDER – IND-DET (spread -10.5, total 231.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 22-13 Over (62.9%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-CLE (o/u at 235.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Fade teams off of overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 59-96 SU and 62-88-5 ATS (41.3%) slide, including 33-57-3 ATS in the last 93 games and 20-39 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DALLAS (+13.5 at MIN), CHICAGO (+14.5 at DEN) 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 165-97 SU but 121-137-4 ATS (46.9%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 99-121 ATS (45%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1.5 vs NYK) 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 89-56-1 (61.4%) rate (sub-system: 51-23-1 to the Over (68.9%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIN (o/u at 231.5) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing, going 130-135 SU but 136-114-5 ATS (54.4%), including 94-62-1 ATS (60.3%) when installed as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-1.5 vs NYK) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 343-299 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-TOR (o/u at 238.5), DAL-MIN (o/u at 231.5), CHI-DEN (o/u at 239.5) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 175-189 SU and 164-190-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (+1.5 at MIA) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that come off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 184-156 SU and 188-142-10 ATS (57%) run.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+8.5 at TOR) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 133-24 SU but 69-85-3 ATS (44.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): DETROIT (-10.5 vs IND), DENVER (-14.5 vs CHI) 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 82-19 SU and 56-42-3 ATS (57.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-17.5 at NOP) 

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 24-8 SU but 10-22 ATS (31.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 22-10 (68.7%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-14.5 vs CHI)
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-DEN (o/u at 239.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 124-86-2 (59.6%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-DET (o/u at 231.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on an 88-92 SU but 103-75-3 ATS (57.9%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+14.5 at DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 9-36 SU and 11-30-4 ATS (26.8%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+10.5 at DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 35-79 SU but 61-53 ATS (53.5%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): INDIANA (+10.5 at DET), NEW ORLEANS (+17.5 vs OKC), CHICAGO (+14.5 at DEN) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 263-314-4 ATS (45.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 32-138 SU and 73-91-6 ATS (44.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-10.5 vs IND), INDIANA (+10.5 at DET) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 64-88-1 ATS (42.1%) in the next game, including 29-44 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10.5 vs IND)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1,321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and a ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, TORONTO, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-PHI

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-MIA, CHI-DEN

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +1.5 (+4.5)
2. CHICAGO +14.5 (+3.3)
3. INDIANA +10.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +17.5 (+4.3)
2. CHICAGO +14.5 (+3.7)
3. INDIANA +10.5 (+2.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -5.5 (+5.9)
2. MIAMI -1.5 (+3.0)
3. MINNESOTA -14.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-CLE OVER 234.5 (+2.8)
2. CHI-DEN OVER 239.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-PHI UNDER 220.5 (-5.1)
2. NYK-MIA UNDER 244.5 (-2.5)
3. IND-DET UNDER 231.5 (-2.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK +1.5 (+4.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS +5.5 (+3.7)
3. CHICAGO +14.5 (+2.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -14.5 (+0.6)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -17.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-PHI OVER 220.5 (+9.0)
2. MIL-CLE OVER 234.5 (+3.8)
3. CHI-DEN OVER 239.5 (+2.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-NOP UNDER 224.5 (-4.9)
2. CHA-TOR UNDER 238.5 (-3.5)
3. NYK-MIA UNDER 244.5 (-3.1)

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