The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 39-20-1 (66.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-HOU (o/u at 218.5)

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 54-82-1 ATS (39.7%) in their last 137 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs NOP)

* Over the total is on an extended 18-3 run in the Hawks-Pacers set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND (o/u at 231.5)

* LA LAKERS are 9-0 SU and ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days scenario since February 2026
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-1.5 vs MIA)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether because of the rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they manage injuries and workloads under schedule pressure.

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 183-101 SU and 162-114 ATS playing in the popular OneDayRest scenario since October 2021
* CLEVELAND is just 28-33 SU and 19-42 ATS (31.1%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+3.5 at CLE)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 37-17 SU and 34-20 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
* NEW YORK is just 9-10 SU and 4-15 ATS (21.1%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of NEW YORK (-14.5 vs BKN)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 35-19 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-NYK (o/u at 219.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 53-33 SU but 33-53 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th Straight Road game since 2020
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (-10.5 vs SAC)

* CHARLOTTE is 95-54 Under the total playing at home with One Day Rest since January 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHA (o/u at 209.5)

* HOUSTON is 65-109 SU and 71-100 ATS playing in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs BOS)

* BOSTON is 12-1 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenarios since November 2004
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-HOU (o/u at 218.5)

* NEW ORLEANS is 24-50 SU and 25-48 ATS playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days scenario since February 2021
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 at MEM)

* NEW ORLEANS is 19-7 Over the total (73.1%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-MEM (o/u at 233.5)

* UTAH is 113-80 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 229.5)

* WASHINGTON is 7-22 SU and 10-19 ATS (32.1%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at ORL)

* TORONTO is 17-4 SU and 16-5 ATS (76.2%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-4.5 at LAC)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away/home game scenarios are 48-28 Under the total vs. teams playing a back-to-back away games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-LAC (o/u at 221.5)

* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario are 32-20 SU and 32-17 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last four seasons
* GOLDEN STATE is 10-15 SU and 5-20 ATS playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario since February 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+2.5 at GSW)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 41-22 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game since 2021

* NBA teams playing in the 3rd in 8+ Days game scenario are 72-42 Under the total vs. teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game over the last four seasons
* PHOENIX is 11-2 Under the total playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Apr ’24
Systems/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-GSW (o/u at 227.5)

* LA LAKERS are 9-0 SU and ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days scenario since February 2026
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-1.5 vs MIA)

Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for today’s games:

(543) OKLAHOMA CITY at (544) CLEVELAND
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven meetings with Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (+3.5 at CLE)

(545) DETROIT at (546) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 13-1 in the Pistons-Hornets series since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CHA (o/u at 209.5)

(547) ATLANTA at (548) INDIANA
* Over the total is on an extended 18-3 run in the Hawks-Pacers set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND (o/u at 231.5)

(549) BROOKLYN at (550) NEW YORK
* Under the total is 8-4 in the last 12 of the Nets-Knicks in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-NYK (o/u at 219.5)

(553) CHICAGO at (554) PHILADELPHIA
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of Bulls-76ers series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-PHI (o/u at 238.5)

(555) SACRAMENTO at (556) DALLAS
* SACRAMENTO is 11-4 SU and 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 trips to Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DAL)

(557) MILWAUKEE at (558) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS surge in Bucks-Twolves non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at MIN)

(559) NEW ORLEANS at (560) MEMPHIS
* Over the total has converted in three straight h2h meetings between New Orleans and Memphis at FedEx Forum
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-MEM (o/u at 233.5)

(561) UTAH at (562) SAN ANTONIO
* UTAH is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+15.5 at SAS)

(563) BOSTON at (564) HOUSTON
* Under the total is a perfect 5-0 in the Celtics-Rockets set at Houston since the start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-HOU (o/u at 218.5)

(565) PORTLAND at (566) DENVER
* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Trail Blazers-Nuggets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): POR-DEN (o/u at 230.5)

(567) TORONTO at (568) LA CLIPPERS
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven matchups between Toronto and LA Clippers in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-LAC (o/u at 221.5)

(569) PHOENIX at (570) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are on 1-4 SU but 4-1 ATS surge in the Suns-Warriors divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+2.5 at GSW)

(571) MIAMI at (572) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 4-0 in Heat-Lakers h2h non-conference meetings the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LAL (o/u at 236.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 199-78 SU and 158-118-1 ATS (57.2%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs BOS), DENVER (-4.5 vs POR)
*WATCH FOR CLEVELAND vs OKC (-3.5 CURRENTLY)*

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 146-128 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 371-302 (55.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-PHI (spread PHI -10.5, o/u at 238.5), SAC-DAL (spread DAL -10.5, o/u at 232.5), MIL-MIN (spread MIN -11.5, o/u at 234.5), UTA-SAS (spread SAS -15.5, o/u at 229.5)
UNDER – BKN-NYK (spread NYK -14.5, o/u at 219.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 15-10 SU but 8-17 ATS (32%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-4.5 vs POR)

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 61-17 SU and 47-31 ATS (60.3%) run since mid
February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs NOP)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 98-66-1 (59.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-LAL (o/u at 236.5)

Rout games can be significant
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 54-82-1 ATS (39.7%) in their last 137 divisional contests.
System Match (FADE ATS): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs NOP)

NBA teams coming off any game in which they lost on the point spread by 25 points or more have gone 163-54 SU and 123-92-2 ATS (57.2%) when a pick ‘em or favorite in their follow-up contest since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): ATLANTA (-5.5 at IND)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 118-78 SU and 110-83-3 ATS (57%) in that follow-up try over the last six seasons.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-14.5 vs BKN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 428-367 (53.8%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-PHI (o/u at 238.5), WSH-ORL (o/u at 225.5), NOP-MEM (o/u at 233.5), POR-DEN (o/u at 230.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 367-371 SU and 336-394-8 ATS (46%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-5.5 vs NOP), DENVER (-4.5 vs POR)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 193-133 SU and 181-138-7 ATS (56.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at ORL)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 110-80 SU and 112-77-1 ATS (59.3%) in their last 190 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-1.5 vs MIA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 165-29 SU but 85-106-3 ATS (44.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 vs UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as road non-conference underdogs are 9-29 SU and 12-26 ATS (31.6%) in their last 38 regular season games.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+4.5 at HOU)

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 39-20-1 (66.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-HOU (o/u at 218.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 55-13 SU and 41-27 ATS (60.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-2.5 vs PHX)

NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 147-110-2 (57.2%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-DAL (o/u at 232.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 10-36 SU and 18-27-1 ATS (40%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+10.5 at DAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 241-208 ATS (53.7%) over the last four seasons, good for +12.2 units of profit and a ROI of 2.7%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, GOLDEN STATE, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 981-899 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -7.9 units and a ROI of -0.4%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, DETROIT, NEW ORLEANS, TORONTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 573-520 ATS record (52.4%), good for +1.00 unit of profit and an ROI of 0.09%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 553-487 ATS (53.2%). This simple angle has produced +17.3 units of profit and an ROI of +1.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, TORONTO, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 683-604 ATS record, good for 53.1%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +18.6 units of profit and an ROI of +1.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, DETROIT, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however: 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 205-223 ATS, good for 47.9%. This is almost a 4% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -40.2 units of loss and an ROI of -9.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO, NEW ORLEANS, DENVER, GOLDEN STATE

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 561-467, good for 54.6%, +47.3 units, and an ROI of +4.6% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ATL-IND, WSH-ORL, CHI-PHI, NOP-MEM, BOS-HOU

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit over 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 489-424 (53.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-NYK, DET-CHA
UNDER – BOS-HOU

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+1.7)
MILWAUKEE +11.5 (+1.7)
3. WASHINGTON +3.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+1.8)
2(tie). NEW YORK -14.5 (+1.4)
LA LAKERS -1.5 (+1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +10.5 (+9.5)
2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY +3.5 (+1.2)
MILWAUKEE +11.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -5.5 (+2.3)
2. HOUSTON -4.5 (+1.7)
3. GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-DEN OVER 230.5 (+2.6)
2. WSH-ORL OVER 225.5 (+2.4)
3. PHX-GSW OVER 227.5 (+2.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-CLE UNDER 229.5 (-2.5)
2. MIL-MIN UNDER 234.5 (-2.2)
3. DET-CHA UNDER 209.5 (-1.6)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +3.5 (+2.0)
2. MILWAUKEE +11.5 (+1.7)
3. NEW ORLEANS +5.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). GOLDEN STATE -2.5 (+1.7)
TORONTO -4.5 (+1.7)
3. NEW YORK -14.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-ORL OVER 225.5 (+7.1)
2. CHI-PHI OVER 238.5 (+6.0)
3. SAC-DAL OVER 232.5 (+4.8)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-MIN UNDER 234.5 (-2.1)
2. OKC-CLE UNDER 229.5 (-2.0)
3. DET-CHA UNDER 209.5 (-0.5)

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