Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 51-62 SU and 40-71-2 ATS (36%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE)
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in 2 Days Rest scenario are 19-4 UNDER the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-94 SU but 106-76-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs POR)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in One Day Rest scenario are 194-247 SU but 250-183-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND)
* NBA teams playing at HOME in 2 Days Rest scenario were 33-17 OVER the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-IND (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in One Day Rest scenario are 50-38 SU and 54-32 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home back to back games over the last two seasons
* BROOKLYN is 4-11 SU and 3-12 ATS playing in the away-to-home back-to-back scenario since Dec ’20
System/Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-13.5 at BKN)
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in One Day Rest scenario are 51-37 OVER the total vs. teams in away-to-home back to back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-BKN (o/u at 228.5), DAL-MIA (o/u at 240.5)
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in One Day Rest scenario are 50-38 SU and 54-32 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in away-to-home back-to-back scenario are 28-31 SU and 23-36 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+8.5 at MIA)
* DENVER is 79-51 OVER the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Mar ’21
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-MEM (o/u at 232.5)
* NBA teams playing on ROAD in 2 Days Rest scenario are 19-4 UNDER the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
* PORTLAND is 24-26 SU but 34-14 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct ’23
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 at MIL)
* MILWAUKEE is 20-2 OVER the total playing at HOME in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan ’25
* PORTLAND is 64-37 UNDER the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Apr ’21
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in POR-MIL (o/u at 231.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) DETROIT at (502) INDIANA
* FAVORITES are 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine of the DET-IND divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND)
(503) CLEVELAND at (504) TORONTO
* FAVORITES are 11-1 SU and ATS in the Cavs-Raptors series at Toronto since December 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at TOR)
(505) DALLAS at (506) MIAMI
* HOME TEAMS are 5-1 ATS in the DAL-MIA non-conference series since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 vs DAL)
(507) NEW YORK at (508) BROOKLYN
* FAVORITES are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Knicks-Nets series at the Barclays Center
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-13.5 at BKN)
(509) DENVER at (510) MEMPHIS
* DENVER is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-8.5 at MEM)
(511) PORTLAND at (512) MILWAUKEE
* PORTLAND is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups with non-conference foe Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 at MIL)
(513) CHICAGO at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* OVER the total is 8-2 in the Bulls-Pelicans non-conference series at New Orleans since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-NOP (o/u at 244.5)
(515) HOUSTON at (516) PHOENIX
* HOUSTON is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the last four trips to Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at PHX)
(517) MINNESOTA at (518) SACRAMENTO
* MINNESOTA is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 games at Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-9.5 at SAC)
(519) UTAH at (520) GOLDEN STATE
* GOLDEN STATE is 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings with Utah
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-14.5 vs UTA)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 122-97 (55.7%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 229-185 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 310-235 (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – UTA-GSW (spread -14.5, total 239.5)
UNDER – DET-IND (spread +10.5, total 235.5), NYK-BKN (spread +13.5, total 228.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 159-72 SU and 131-96-4 ATS (57.7%) (sub-system: 76-24 SU and 62-34-4 ATS (64.6%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-8.5 at MEM), HOUSTON (-6.5 at PHX)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 285-151 SU but just 184-239-13 ATS (43.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-5.5 at NOP)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 156-191 SU and 150-193-4 ATS (43.7%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-8.5 vs DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 308-320 SU and 283-337-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND), TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that have allowed 20 or more 3PT field goals in a game have rebounded well when favored the next time out, going 205-79 SU and 148-133-3 ATS (52.7%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 51-62 SU and 40-71-2 ATS (36%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 85-19 SU and 58-43-3 ATS (57.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go UNDER at a 31-18-1 (63.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TOR (o/u at 235.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a back-to-back as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 50-12 SU and 39-23 ATS (62.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 vs DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 90-94 SU but 106-76-3 ATS (58.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 vs POR)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 272-318-4 ATS (46.1%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND), TORONTO (+2.5 vs CLE), NEW ORLEANS (+5.5 vs CHI)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 67-88-1 ATS (43.2%) in the next game, including 30-44 ATS (40.5%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-10.5 at IND)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a HOME TEAM playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, DALLAS, DENVER, CHICAGO, MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DALLAS, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, MINNESOTA, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in DIVISIONAL games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO ML, MIAMI ML, MILWAUKEE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the UNDER in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking OVERS. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-MIA, CHI-NOP, MIN-SAC, UTA-GSW
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (OVER or UNDER) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January ’23.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UNDER – DAL-MIA, MIN-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-NOP, MIN-SAC
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +14.5 (+3.1)
2. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+2.3)
3. SACRAMENTO +9.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+1.6)
2. MIAMI -8.5 (+1.5)
3. DETROIT -10.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +14.5 (+5.1)
2. TORONTO +2.5 (+3.2)
3. PHOENIX +6.5 (+1.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8.5 (+5.3)
2. DENVER -8.5 (+2.3)
3. MINNESOTA -9.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-PHX OVER 224.5 (+2.8)
2. POR-MIL OVER 231.5 (+2.4)
3. NYK-BKN OVER 228.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MIA UNDER 240.5 (-2.8)
2. DET-IND UNDER 235.5 (-1.3)
3. DEN-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +14.5 (+3.9)
2. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+2.4)
3. SACRAMENTO +9.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -8.5 (+2.5)
2. DETROIT -10.5 (+1.8)
3. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-MIL OVER 231.5 (+4.2)
2. UTA-GSW OVER 239.5 (+2.3)
3. HOU-PHX OVER 224.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MIA UNDER 240.5 (-3.2)
2. DEN-MEM UNDER 232.5 (-2.4)
3. CHI-NOP UNDER 245.5 (-1.8)
