Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/26. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is on an extended 14-1 run in the Grizzlies-Jazz set in Salt Lake City, UT
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-UTA (o/u at 237.5)
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 68-74 SU and 52-88-2 ATS (37.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs PHX)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 63-33 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the since 2021
* CHARLOTTE is 94-54 Under the total playing at home with One Day Rest since Jan 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHA (o/u at 227.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 35-14 SU and 33-16 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-14.5 vs CHI)
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 33-16 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-BOS (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing in the 3rd Home in 4 Days game scenario are 45-33 ATS vs. teams playing a 4th in 6 Days game over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (-2.5 vs WSH), UTAH (+1.5 vs MEM)
* WASHINGTON is 0-13 SU and 2-11 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since Feb 2026
* WASHINGTON is 70-173 SU and 101-136 ATS playing with One Day Rest since Nov 2021
* WASHINGTON is 6-21 SU and 9-18 ATS (33.3%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHA)
* NBA teams playing in the One Day Rest game scenario are 63-33 Under the total vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game since 2021
* CHARLOTTE is 94-54 Under the total playing at home with One Day Rest since January 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHA (o/u at 227.5)
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away game scenario are 15-38 SU and 17-33 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Home game over the last four seasons
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario were 27-36 SU and 24-39 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario are 15-11 SU and 18-8 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Straight Road game over the last four seasons
Systems Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 vs MEM)
* MEMPHIS is 14-2 Over the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since January 2026
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-UTA (o/u at 237.5)
* MIAMI is 17-7 SU and ATS (70.8%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-7.5 vs DAL)
* MIAMI is 76-39 Over the total playing with One Day Rest since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-MIA (o/u at 239.5)
* HOUSTON is 62-109 SU and 68-100 ATS playing in the 4th in 6 Days game scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs ATL)
* MILWAUKEE is 94-60 Over the total playing at home with One Day Rest since Jan 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIL (o/u at 238.5)
* CLEVELAND is just 27-33 SU and 19-41 ATS (31.7%) vs. teams that have winning records, since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs MIN)
* GOLDEN STATE is 129-127 SU but 108-144 ATS playing in One Day Rest games since January 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+7.5 at DEN)
* DENVER is 18-3 Over the total (85.7%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-DEN (o/u at 236.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(515) MINNESOTA at (516) CLEVELAND
* FAVORITES are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six of the Twolves-Cavs non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-4.5 vs MIN)
(517) WASHINGTON at (518) CHARLOTTE
* Road teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Wizards-Hornets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHA)
(519) DALLAS at (520) MIAMI
* DALLAS is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine games versus Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 at MIA)
(521) CHICAGO at (522) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups with Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-14.5 vs CHI)
(523) INDIANA at (524) MILWAUKEE
* MILWAUKEE is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games with divisional foe Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs IND)
(525) PHOENIX at (526) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Over the total is 9-2 in the Suns-Thunder series since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-OKC (o/u at 220.5)
(527) ATLANTA at (528) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON has won and covered all three meetings with Atlanta since the start of 2026
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs ATL)
(529) MEMPHIS at (530) UTAH
* Over the total is on an extended 14-1 run in the Grizzlies-Jazz set in Salt Lake City, UT
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-UTA (o/u at 237.5)
(531) GOLDEN STATE at (532) DENVER
* Home teams have won and covered the last five matchups between GSW and DEN
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 vs GSW)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 197-77 SU and 156-117-1 ATS (57.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 vs ATL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 47-136 SU and 80-98-5 ATS (44.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs IND)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 146-127 (53.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 369-299 (55.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-BOS (spread BOS -14.5, o/u at 231.5), PHX-OKC (spread -10.5, o/u at 220.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 28-15 SU and 26-15-2 ATS (63.4%) since early March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-2.5 vs WSH)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 205-116 SU but 149-168-4 ATS (47%) in the follow-up contest over the last eight seasons. Included among this is a 121-150 ATS (44.6%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-7.5 vs GSW)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 123-83-1 ATS (59.7%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+4.5 vs IND)
Early season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 45 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-MIL (o/u at 238.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 424-362 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-CLE (o/u at 233.5), GSW-DEN (o/u at 236.5)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 213-223 SU and 205-221-10 ATS (48.1%) in that next contest over the last eight seasons.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-4.5 at MIL)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that come off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 204-181 SU and 211-164-10 ATS (56.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 at MIA)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 68-74 SU and 52-88-2 ATS (37.1%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 vs PHX)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
Looking back at the DK betting splits data for the full 2025-26 NBA regular season, there were 1322 games played for the sample. To summarize the overall findings, the side categories are almost identical to the 2024-25 season results, meaning, we should be continuing to see great results for all or most of the systems we’ve continued to track. The total numbers were much worse, indicating the public’s successes in the 2024-25 season may have been a fluke occurrence. In all, four of the six categories showed losses worse than -7% ROI. These were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 653-652 ATS (50%), -64.2 units – ROI: -4.9%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 625-652 ATS (48.9%), -92.2 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 847-458 (64.8%). -131.65 units – ROI: -10.1%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 894-424 (67.8%). -104.3 units – ROI: -7.9%
– Majority handle on totals: 650-643 (50.3%). -57.3 units – ROI: -4.4%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 636-667 (48.8%), -97.7 units – ROI: -7.5%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 234-204 ATS (53.4%) over the last four seasons, good for +9.6 units of profit and an ROI of 2.2%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 vs MEM)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 976-889 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -1.9 units and an ROI of -0.1%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA (-4.5 at MIL), PHOENIX (+10.5 at OKC), ATLANTA (+4.5 at HOU)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last four seasons, that group produced a 165-138 ATS record (54.5%). This has netted +13.2 units and an ROI of 4.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+1.5 vs MEM)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 564-509 ATS record (52.6%), good for +4.1 units of profit and an ROI of 0.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-7.5 vs DAL), PHOENIX (+10.5 at OKC), ATLANTA (+4.5 at HOU), UTAH (+1.5 vs MEM)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-484 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of +1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-7.5 vs DAL), ATLANTA (+4.5 at HOU)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 675-595 ATS record, good for 53.1%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.5 units of profit and an ROI of +1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX (+10.5 at OKC), UTAH (+1.5 vs MEM), DENVER (-7.5 vs GSW)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 202-222 ATS, good for 47.6%. This is almost a 4% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -42.1 units of loss and an ROI of -9.9%.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (-4.5 at MIL)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 553-460, good for 54.6%, +47 units, and an ROI of +4.6% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-CLE (o/u at 233.5), GSW-DEN (o/u at 236.5)
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 223-170 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +36.0 units of profit for +9.2%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-CLE (o/u at 233.5), GSW-DEN (o/u at 236.5)
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+2.3)
2. CHICAGO +14.5 (+1.2)
3. UTAH +1.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -7.5 (+2.9)
2(tie). OKLAHOMA CITY -10.5 (+0.8)
DENVER -7.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +14.5 (+4.2)
2. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+2.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS -1.5 (+3.5)
2. MIAMI -7.5 (+1.7)
3. HOUSTON -4.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-OKC OVER 220.5 (+2.1)
2(tie). WSH-CHA OVER 226.5 (+1.2)
CHI-BOS OVER 231.5 (+1.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-MIA UNDER 240.5 (-1.8)
2. MEM-UTA OVER 237.5 (-1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA +4.5 (+1.8)
2. CHICAGO +14.5 (+0.7)
3. ATLANTA +4.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -7.5 (+4.7)
2. INDIANA -4.5 (+0.8)
3. DENVER -7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-OKC OVER 220.5 (+5.7)
2. CHI-BOS OVER 231.5 (+3.0)
3. MEM-UTA OVER 237.5 (+2.9)
