Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, October 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 60-29 SU for +19.97 units (ROI: 22.4%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* TAMPA BAY: 23-19-1 to the Under for +2.00 units
* MILWAUKEE: 26-13-1 to the Under for +11.60 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-TB (o/u at 7)
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Line Angles
Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable. They are just 100-93 SU (-32.63 units, ROI: -16.9%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 69-72 SU (-22.43 units, ROI: -15.9%) since ‘16.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Series wins status
Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 44-50 SU (-30.91 units, ROI: -32.9%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Stats from last game trends
Teams playing as underdogs (or pick ’em) in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 46-74 SU (-16.68 units, ROI: -13.9%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-102 at TB)
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last six playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won 100 games or more are on a slide of 28-34 SU (-18.37 units, ROI: -29.6%) and 22-40 on run lines (-19.72 units, ROI: -31.8%) in playoff games.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
Totals angles
The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 119-113-3, and Overs have produced a return of +20.22 units, an ROI of 8.7%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-TB (o/u at 7)
Nine Top MLB World Series Betting Systems
Over the last 20+ years of World Series action, several nice betting systems have emerged. You know you’re going to bet the games, why not arm yourself with key data that has won recently.
WORLD SERIES system #1:
Home field advantage hasn’t meant a lot in recent World Series action, with hosts on a 23-34 slide in the last 57 opportunities dating back to 2016 (-21.54 Units, -37.8% ROI).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
WORLD SERIES system #3:
Strangely, the most profitable home teams in the World Series recently have been those in the -110 to -125 range, or the very short favorites, as those teams are on a 20-12 run since 2000 (+5.79 Units, 18.1% ROI)
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
WORLD SERIES system #5:
World Series teams have struggled putting back-to-back wins together recently, going 12-26 in the game following up a WS win (-19.91 Units, -52.4% ROI)
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-102 at TB)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams got off to a slow start but roared back in the season’s final month, ending the campaign with a record of 318-216 for +8.23 units and an ROI of +1.5% (10-8, -2.50 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The ’26 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (9-8, +2.88 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-102 at TB)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #5:
In MLB games occurring in August or later between two teams who have >= 0.580 win pct, smaller favorites in the -111 to -175 line range have gone 60-29 SU for +19.97 units (ROI: 22.4%) in the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 175-177 (-75.98 units, ROI: -21.6%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-102 at TB)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) MILWAUKEE (112-60) at (956) TAMPA BAY (105-68)
Trend: MIL is 19-6 (+10.34 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at TB)
Trend: After spending most of his career in Milwaukee, TB starter Freddy Peralta faced the Brewers once this season and got
ripped (8 ER, 7 HA, 2 BB)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 18-18 (-10.09 units) in his last 36 late-season (September/October) starts
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Trend: TB is 34-18 (+14.53 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Trend: TB is the most profitable team in the MLB on the run line in night games this season (64-45, +26.71 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs MIL)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Trend: Home teams are 12-4 (75%, +6.43 units) run in the last 16 of Rays-Brewers interleague series
– The ROI on this trend is 40.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for Game 3 as of 7:00 PM ET on Sunday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (21-15, +0.61 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-118 vs MIL)
