The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 31-18-1 (63.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-DEN (spread +1.5, total 235.5) 

* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 288-162 SU but just 186-251-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-4.5 at SAC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 20-4 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-MEM (o/u at 230.5) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 79-39 SU and 69-45-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four Seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (+1.5 vs HOU), LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs LAL) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 51-15 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three Seasons

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 72-28 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two Seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-DEN (o/u at 236.5), BOS-TOR (o/u at 225.5), IND-NOP (o/u at 234.5), CHA-DET (o/u at 232.5), PHX-GSW (o/u at 227.5), ORL-UTA (o/u at 237.5), POR-SAC (o/u at 239.5), LAL-LAC (o/u at 230.5) 

* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 136-76 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 99-78 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+Days games over the last three seasons
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER IN ALL TEN GAMES 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 51-40 SU and 56-33 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3.5 at PHI) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 51-40 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 227.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 200-257 SU but 257-192-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+13.5 at MEM)

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 39-22 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 37-25 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 20-4 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
Systems Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-MEM (o/u at 230.5)

* BOSTON is 15-3 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since Jun 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 225.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 142-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DET (o/u at 232.5) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 27-30 SU and 18-36 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs PHX) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 124-93 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-GSW (o/u at 227.5) 

* HOUSTON is 117-87 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-DEN (o/u at 236.5) 

* INDIANA is 24-9 SU and 25-8 ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+2.5 at NOP)

* LA CLIPPERS are 16-6 Under the total playing in 4thi n1 0+ Days games since Jan 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-LAC (o/u at 230.5) 

* ORLANDO is 109-79 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-UTA (o/u at 237.5) 

* PHOENIX is 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS playing on the road in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Feb 2023
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+5.5 at GSW) 

* TORONTO is 19-15 SU and 19-14 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs BOS) 

* UTAH is 91-61 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-UTA (o/u at 237.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(549) HOUSTON at (550) DENVER
* DENVER is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+1.5 vs HOU) 

(551) BOSTON at (552) TORONTO
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the BOS-TOR divisional rivalry at Scotiabank Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 225.5) 

(553) DALLAS at (554) PHILADELPHIA
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Mavs-76ers non-conference series at Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 227.5) 

(555) INDIANA at (556) NEW ORLEANS
* Home teams are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the IND-NOP set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs IND) 

(557) CHARLOTTE at (558) DETROIT
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the Hornets-Pistons series in the Motor City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DET (o/u at 232.5) 

(559) WASHINGTON at (560) MEMPHIS
* MEMPHIS is 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 games hosting Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (-13.5 vs WSH) 

(561) PHOENIX at (562) GOLDEN STATE
* PHOENIX is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 matchups with divisional foe Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+5.5 at GSW) 

(563) ORLANDO at (564) UTAH
* Under the total is 6-2 in the ORL-UTA non-conference series since the start of the 21-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-UTA (o/u at 237.5) 

(565) PORTLAND at (566) SACRAMENTO
* Home teams are 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven of the POR-SAC  West Coast series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+4.5 vs POR) 

(567) LA LAKERS at (568) LA CLIPPERS
* LA LAKERS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with same-city foe LA Clippers
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-1.5 at LAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 126-91 SU and 129-85-3 ATS (60.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+1.5 at NOP) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 39-128 SU and 69-93-5 ATS (42.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs LAL) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 45-16 Over (75.9%) surge in the last 61 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-TOR (spread +1.5, total 223.5) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-188 (55%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 326-244 (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-DET (spread -10.5, total 232.5), WSH-MEM (spread -13.5, total 230.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 14-38 SU and 17-33-2 ATS (34%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+1.5 vs BOS) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 89-61 SU and 79-69-2 ATS (53.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-4.5 at SAC) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 99-64-1 ATS (60.7%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON at DEN, -1.5 CURRENTLY 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 288-162 SU but just 186-251-13 ATS (42.6%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): PORTLAND (-4.5 at SAC)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 163-197 SU and 158-198-4 ATS (44.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (-13.5 vs WSH), NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs IND), PHILADELPHIA (-2.5 vs DAL) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 106-67 SU and 101-69-3 ATS (59.4%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs PHX)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 362-318 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAL-LAC (o/u at 230.5), DAL-PHI (o/u at 226.5), ORL-UTA (o/u at 237.5) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 181-195 SU and 168-198-10 ATS (45.9%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 at DET), BOSTON (-1.5 at TOR) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 98-66 (59.8%) rate since 2021, including 43-23 (65.2%) to the Over in the last 66.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-PHI (o/u at 226.5)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 77-56 SU and 79-53-1 ATS (59.8%) in their last 133 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs LAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with the win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 31-18-1 (63.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-DEN (spread +1.5, total 235.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 14-49 SU and 25-35-3 ATS (41.7%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (+1.5 vs LAL)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS, MEMPHIS, ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-MEM, PHX-GSW, POR-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – ORL-UTA, POR-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-SAC 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+4.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+3.7)
3. DENVER +1.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+1.2)
2(tie). DETROIT -10.5 (+1.1)
ORLANDO -7.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTAH +7.5 (+1.6)
2. PHOENIX +5.5 (+1.4)
3. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+1.2)
2. DETROIT -10.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-UTA OVER 237.5 (+0.7)
2. WSH-MEM OVER 230.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). HOU-DEN UNDER 236.5 (-2.0)
POR-SAC UNDER 239.5 (-2.0)
3. PHX-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +13.5 (+4.4)
2. LA CLIPPERS +1.5 (+4.3)
3. DENVER +1.5 (+2.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -7.5 (+3.2)
2. PORTLAND -4.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-MEM OVER 230.5 (+3.4)
2. IND-NOP OVER 234.5 (+2.3)
3. CHA-DET OVER 232.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-SAC UNDER 239.5 (-2.2)
2. DAL-PHI UNDER 227.5 (-2.0)
3. PHX-GSW UNDER 227.5 (-1.6)

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