The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 27, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 93-60-1 (60.8%) rate (sub-system: 53-26-1 to the Over (67.1%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 241.5) 

* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 128-93 SU and 131-87-3 ATS (60.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at SAC) 

* MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs BKN) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 53-38 SU and 50-40 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at ORL) 

* DENVER is 83-51 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-ORL (o/u at 234.5) 

* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 80-58 SU and 80-57-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+11.5 at MIN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 83-32 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-MIN (o/u at 226.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 82-44 SU and 77-47-2 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last four Seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 40-19 SU and 38-19-2 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
* SACRAMENTO is 5-13 SU and 3-15 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SACRAMENTO (+3.5 vs DAL) 

* HOUSTON is 118-89 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-HOU (o/u at 234.5)

* INDIANA is 13-20 SU and 7-25-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home game scenario are 34-32 SU and 29-37 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 FADE of MIAMI, 1 FADE of INDIANA 

* INDIANA is 14-2 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIA (o/u at 229.5) 

* MILWAUKEE is 4-20 SU and 4-19-1 ATS playing in 4th Straight Road games since February 2021
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+3.5 at CHI)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(519) DALLAS at (520) SACRAMENTO
* DALLAS is 5-2 ATS in the last seven trips to Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at SAC) 

(521) PHOENIX at (522) NEW ORLEANS
* PHOENIX has won and covered the last three meetings with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-4.5 at NOP) 

(523) DENVER at (524) ORLANDO
* DENVER is 3-0 SU and ATS versus Orlando in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at ORL) 

(525) BROOKLYN at (526) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs BKN)

(527) INDIANA at (528) MIAMI
* Over the total has converted in all eight games between IND and MIA since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-MIA (o/u at 229.5) 

(529) MILWAUKEE at (530) CHICAGO
* Under the total is on an extended 16-6 run in the MIL-CHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHI (o/u at 234.5) 

(531) NEW YORK at (532) ATLANTA
* Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the NYK-ATL series
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 at ATL) 

(533) UTAH at (534) SAN ANTONIO
* Road teams are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the UTA-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+15.5 at SAS) 

(535) CLEVELAND at (536) HOUSTON
* HOUSTON has won and covered all four meetings with non-conference foe Cleveland since 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-3.5 vs CLE) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 128-93 SU and 131-87-3 ATS (60.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 at SAC)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 126-100 (55.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 231-190 (54.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-248 (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-MIN (spread -11.5, total 225.5), UTA-SAS (spread -15.5, total 241.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 24-15 Over (61.5%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-CHI (o/u at 235.5) 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs in a back-to-back situation are 9-33 SU and 17-24-1 ATS (41.5%) since January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+2.5 at CHI) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 178-102 SU but 129-147-4 ATS (46.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among these is a 105-130 ATS (44.7%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-4.5 at ORL), MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs BKN) 

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 93-60-1 (60.8%) rate (sub-system: 53-26-1 to the Over (67.1%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-SAS (o/u at 241.5) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 291-162 SU but just 189-251-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 at ATL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 317-246 SU but 253-295-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 vs UTA), HOUSTON (-3.5 vs CLE) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 166-200 SU and 161-201-4 ATS (44.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER (-4.5 at ORL), BROOKLYN (+11.5 at MIN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 368-322 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-SAC (o/u at 232.5), PHX-NOP (o/u at 237.5)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 185-198 SU and 173-200-10 ATS (46.4%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 at ATL)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 78-56 SU and 80-53-1 ATS (60.2%) in their L134 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+2.5 at CHI) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 144-25 SU but 73-93-3 ATS (44%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-15.5 vs UTA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 97-103 SU but 114-84-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+6.5 vs NYK) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of seven games or more become play against teams in general, going 283-327-4 ATS (46.4%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been terrible in road games, going 34-144 SU and 78-94-6 ATS (45.3%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+8.5 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, BROOKLYN, NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: In a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, NEW ORLEANS, MILWAUKEE, BROOKLYN 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, BROOKLYN, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-NOP, DEN-ORL, MIL-CHI, NYK-ATL, UTA-SAS, CLE-HOU 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UNDER – PHX-NOP, UTA-SAS

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +6.5 (+3.5)
2. ORLANDO +4.5 (+3.4)
3. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+2.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA +6.5 (+3.2)
2. INDIANA +8.5 (+1.8)
3. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -15.5 (+4.0)
2. CHICAGO -2.5 (+0.9)
3. PHOENIX -4.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). MIL-CHI OVER 233.5 (+2.3)
NYK-ATL OVER 240.5 (+2.3)
3. UTA-SAS OVER 241.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIN UNDER 225.5 (-5.2)
2. DAL-SAC UNDER 232.5 (-3.2)
3. IND-MIA UNDER 229.5 (-2.8)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +3.5 (+4.8)
2. ATLANTA +6.5 (+4.7)
3. ORLANDO +4.5 (+3.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -2.5 (+1.8)
2. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+0.5)
3. SAN ANTONIO -15.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-SAS OVER 241.5 (+3.9)
2. MIL-CHI OVER 233.5 (+3.8)
3. PHX-NOP OVER 237.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIN UNDER 225.5 (-7.4)
2. DAL-SAC UNDER 232.5 (-3.3)
3. DEN-ORL UNDER 234.5 (-2.7)

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