Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, December 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 52-63 SU and 41-72-2 ATS (36.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-12.5 vs MIL)
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-87 SU and 128-81-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 at BKN)
* Favorites are on 8-2 SU and ATS run in the GSW-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs GSW)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* WASHINGTON is 4-36 SU and 12-28 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since Apr 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs ATL)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 15-13 SU and 18-10 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+8.5 at MIA)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home game scenario are 31-31 SU and 25-37 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+8.5 vs HOU)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 85-55 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-MIN (o/u at 227.5)
* BROOKLYN is 12-5 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-BKN (o/u at 227.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 52-38 SU and 49-40 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+7.5 at CLE)
* GOLDEN STATE is 123-92 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-CLE (o/u at 228.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(535) NEW ORLEANS at (536) BROOKLYN
* FAVORITES have won and covered five straight games between NOP and BKN
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-3.5 vs NOP)
(537) ATLANTA at (538) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Hawks-Wizards divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-WSH (o/u at 234.5)
(539) MILWAUKEE at (540) DETROIT
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Bucks-Pistons divisional rivalry at Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-DET (o/u at 224.5)
(541) GOLDEN STATE at (542) CLEVELAND
* Favorites are on 8-2 SU and ATS run in the GSW-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-7.5 vs GSW)
(543) SACRAMENTO at (544) MIAMI
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Kings-Heat non-conference series at Miami
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-MIA (o/u at 238.5)
(545) LA CLIPPERS at (546) MINNESOTA
* Road teams have won six straight ATS in the LAC-MIN series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+10.5 at MIN)
(547) HOUSTON at (548) DALLAS
* Under the total is 4-1 in the Rockets-Mavs series since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-DAL (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 125-87 SU and 128-81-3 ATS (61.2%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 at BKN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 36-126 SU and 65-92-5 ATS (41.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs ATL), DALLAS (+8.5 at HOU)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-99 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-186 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 322-241 (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – LAC-MIN (spread -10.5, total 227.5)
UNDER – MIL-DET (spread -12.5, total 224.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs on a back-to-back situation are 9-31 SU and 16-23-1 ATS (41%) since January 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+12.5 at DET)
Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, road teams playing on a back-to-back are 12-18 SU and ATS (40%) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 at WSH)
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 42-8 SU and 34-16 ATS (68%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-8.5 at DAL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 98-63-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 at BKN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 356-314 (53.1%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BROOKLYN (-3.5 vs NOP), DETROIT (-12.5 vs MIL)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 315-328 SU and 289-346-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-8.5 at DAL)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 185-158 SU and 190-143-10 ATS (57.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+8.5 at MIA)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 22-73 SU and 41-54 ATS (43.2%) in their last 95 tries.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+8.5 at MIA)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 52-63 SU and 41-72-2 ATS (36.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-12.5 vs MIL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 143-25 SU but 72-93-3 ATS (43.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs LAC)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sports I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
- Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
- Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
- Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
- Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a four-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL):
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-MIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNDER – SAC-MIA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+1.0)
LA CLIPPERS +10.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -12.5 (+3.9)
2. ATLANTA -9.5 (+2.2)
3. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+2.7)
2. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -12.5 (+2.6)
2. HOUSTON -8.5 (+2.3)
3. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-MIA OVER 238.5 (+1.1)
2. ATL-WSH OVER 234.5 (+0.2)
3. LAC-MIN OVER 227.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-DAL UNDER 224.5 (-2.8)
2. NOP-BKN UNDER 227.5 (-1.9)
3. MIL-DET UNDER 224.5 (-1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +10.5 (+2.2)
2. GOLDEN STATE +7.5 (+1.1)
3. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -12.5 (+4.2)
2. ATLANTA -9.5 (+3.7)
3. HOUSTON -8.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-WSH OVER 234.5 (+1.7)
2. NOP-BKN OVER 227.5 (+1.0)
3. SAC-MIA OVER 238.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-DET UNDER 224.5 (-3.4)
2. HOU-DAL UNDER 224.5 (-2.9)
3. LAC-MIN UNDER 227.5 (-1.5)
