The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, February 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 17-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NOP (o/u at 232.5)

* NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 194-169 SU and 199-154-10 ATS (56.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-1.5 vs ORL)

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 10-41 SU and 16-31-4 ATS (34%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* PHOENIX is 13-17 SU and 10-19 ATS playing in all 3rd in 8+ Days games since October 2021
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-1.5 vs ORL)

* ORLANDO is 119-88 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-PHX (o/u at 218.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 64-50 SU and 62-51 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at NOP)

* PHILADELPHIA is 24-9 Over the total playing on the ROAD in OneDayRest games since Nov ’24
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 17-1 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Home in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in PHI-NOP (o/u at 232.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 86-34 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-PHX (o/u at 218.5), SAC-SAS (o/u at 230.5), DET-CHI (o/u at 233.5), HOU-NYK (o/u at 219.5)

* CHICAGO is 1-10 SU and ATS (9.1%) in its last 11 games
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 50-18 SU and 40-25 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 61-19 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 25-12 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
Systems Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DET-CHI (o/u at 233.5)

* HOUSTON is 123-101 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-NYK (o/u at 219.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(539) ORLANDO at (540) PHOENIX
* ORLANDO is a perfect 7-0 ATS (4-3 SU) in the last seven meetings with Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX)

(541) PHILADELPHIA at (542) NEW ORLEANS
* NEW ORLEANS is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven instances of hosting Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+3.5 vs PHI)

(543) SACRAMENTO at (544) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Kings-Spurs series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-SAS (o/u at 230.5)

(545) MEMPHIS at (546) MIAMI
* Under the total is 6-2 in the Grizzlies-Heat non-conference set since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-MIA (o/u at 234.5)

(547) DETROIT at (548) CHICAGO
* DETROIT is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six matchups with divisional foe Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CHI)

(549) HOUSTON at (550) NEW YORK
* HOUSTON is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings with New York
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+3.5 at NYK)

NBA Post-All-Star Break Trends

The following handicapping information details betting trends for teams through Sunday in the first week/weekend coming out of the All-Star break. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.

* In PASB games with totals >= 235, Under the total is on a 32-14-3 (69.6%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR MEM-MIA (TOTAL 234.5 CURRENTLY)

* In PASB games, teams on winning or losing streaks of 4+ games that are playing as underdogs are 1-26 SU and 8-19 ATS (29.6%) in the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO (+18.5 at SAS), CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

* In PASB games, divisional favorites are 27-7 SU and 24-10 ATS (70.6%) in the last four seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CHI)

* In PASB games between two teams both having 33+ wins already, favorites are on a 14-6 SU and 13-7 ATS (65%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs HOU)

* In the last 29 PASB non-conference games, Eastern Conference teams have gone 19-10 SU and 23-6 ATS (79.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX), PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at NOP), MIAMI (-10.5 vs MEM), NEW YORK (-3.5 vs HOU)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 182-68 SU and 146-103-1 ATS (58.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR NEW YORK vs HOU (-3.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-106 (56%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 247-210 (54%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 337-266 (55.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAC-SAS (spread -18.5, total 230.5), MEM-MIA (spread -10.5, total 234.5)
UNDER – DET-CHI (spread +10.5, total 233.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorites
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 178-80 SU and 147-107-4 ATS (57.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at NOP)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 335-258 SU but 268-310-15 ATS (46.4%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): MIAMI (-10.5 vs MEM)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 390-336 (53.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-NOP (o/u at 232.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 338-350 SU and 311-369-8 ATS (45.7%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 196-212 SU and 185-213-10 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (+1.5 at PHX)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 194-169 SU and 199-154-10 ATS (56.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-1.5 vs ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 147-27 SU but 76-95-3 ATS (44.4%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs SAC)

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 92-24 SU and 63-50-3 ATS (55.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-10.5 at CHI)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 111-125 SU but 132-102-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 10-41 SU and 16-31-4 ATS (34%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-85 SU but 68-55 ATS (55.3%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO (+18.5 at SAS), CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 299-343-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 37-156 SU and 84-103-6 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): SACRAMENTO (+18.5 at SAS), SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs SAC), CHICAGO (+10.5 vs DET)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): PHILADELPHIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, MIAMI ML, NEW YORK ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-PHX, MEM-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-CHI
UNDER – MEM-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-NYK
UNDER – ORL-PHX

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +10.5 (+3.2)
2. HOUSTON +3.5 (+1.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+0.9)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -10.5 (+4.5)
2. PHOENIX -1.5 (+0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +10.5 (+2.2)
2. HOUSTON +3.5 (+0.4)
3. SACRAMENTO +18.5 (+0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -10.5 (+1.5)
2. PHILADELPHIA -3.5 (+0.7)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MEM-MIA OVER 234.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-CHI UNDER 233.5 (-1.0)
2(tie). PHI-NOP UNDER 232.5 (-0.2)
SAC-SAS UNDER 232.5 (-0.2)
HOU-NYK UNDER 219.5 (-0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +10.5 (+2.9)
2. HOUSTON +3.5 (+2.8)
3. NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+0.7)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -10.5 (+5.5)
2. PHOENIX -1.5 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHI-NOP OVER 232.5 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-PHX UNDER 218.5 (-3.4)
2. HOU-NYK UNDER 219.5 (-1.8)
3. DET-CHI UNDER 233.5 (-1.5)

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