Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, February 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 111-70 SU and 105-73-3 ATS (59%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 at GSW)
* MIAMI is on an extended 13-5 SU and 14-3-1 ATS run in the last 18 games versus Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 vs HOU)
* NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 97-41 SU and 84-53-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-6.5 at UTA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* CHARLOTTE is 152-110 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-CHA (o/u at 228.5)
* MIAMI is 27-11 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-MIA (o/u at 225.5)
* TORONTO is 13-3 SU and ATS (81.3%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
* WASHINGTON is 5-19 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) vs. the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, currently scoring <114 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-13.5 at WSH)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 219-276 SU but 277-210-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 at GSW)
* UTAH is 100-72 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) PORTLAND at (566) CHARLOTTE
* PORTLAND is 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the cross-country series with Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+7.5 at CHA)
(567) HOUSTON at (568) MIAMI
* MIAMI is on an extended 13-5 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 games versus Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 vs HOU)
(569) TORONTO at (570) WASHINGTON
* TORONTO is 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the set with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-13.5 at WSH)
(571) LA LAKERS at (572) GOLDEN STATE
* Over the total is on a 10-2 surge in the Lakers-Warriors divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-GSW (o/u at 230.5)
(573) NEW ORLEANS at (574) UTAH
* Over the total has converted in all five meetings between NOP and UTA since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-UTA (o/u at 245.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 97-41 SU and 84-53-1 ATS (61.3%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-6.5 at UTA)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-109 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 250-210 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 342-266 (56.3%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – TOR-WSH (spread +13.5, total 227.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 99-65 SU and 88-74-2 ATS (54.3%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-7.5 vs POR)
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 112-73-1 ATS (60.5%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+2.5 vs HOU)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 111-70 SU and 105-73-3 ATS (59%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 at GSW)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 112-129 SU but 134-105-3 ATS (56.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 vs NOP)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, LA LAKERS, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-UTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-UTA
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+3.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -2.5 (+2.2)
2. TORONTO -13.5 (+1.4)
3. NEW ORLEANS -6.5 (+0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+1.3)
2. PORTLAND +7.5 (+0.7)
3. UTAH +6.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: TORONTO -13.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NOP-UTA OVER 245.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-GSW UNDER 230.5 (-4.6)
2. TOR-WSH UNDER 227.5 (-1.2)
3. HOU-MIA UNDER 225.5 (-0.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +4.5 (+3.4)
2. UTAH +6.5 (+1.7)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -2.5 (+2.2)
2(tie). CHARLOTTE -7.5 (+0.4)
TORONTO -13.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-MIA OVER 225.5 (+2.1)
2. POR-CHA OVER 228.5 (+1.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-GSW UNDER 230.5 (-4.8)
2. NOP-UTA UNDER 245.5 (-2.3)
3. TOR-WSH UNDER 227.5 (-1.1)
