Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 131-93-2 (58.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 232.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at MIA)
* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 106-67-1 ATS (61.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at DAL)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 47-20 SU and 44-21-2 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last three seasons
* INDIANA is 13-22 SU and 8-26-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
System/Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-12.5 vs IND)
* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 49-26 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 34-14 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last three seasons
* INDIANA is 15-2 Over the total playing on the road in 4th in 6 Days games since October 2024
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in IND-DET (o/u at 227.5)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 18-31 SU and 19-29-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+12.5 at DEN)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 47-24 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 231.5)
* ATLANTA is 131-97 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-ATL (o/u at 229.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 33-32 SU and 23-39 ATS playing home games in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs CHA)
* GOLDEN STATE is 129-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
* CHARLOTTE is 145-105 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 93-64 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in CHA-GSW (o/u at 234.5)
* MINNESOTA is 21-7 Over the total playing in the back-to-back away scenario since December 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-SAS (o/u at 228.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 83-15 SU and 61-34-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at MIA)
* MIAMI is 24-11 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-MIA (o/u at 233.5)
* UTAH is 96-65 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 93-64 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-DAL (o/u at 241.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) UTAH at (532) DALLAS
* Home teams are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the UTA-DAL series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (-3.5 vs UTA)
(533) BOSTON at (534) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games with Boston
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+3.5 vs BOS)
(535) PHOENIX at (536) NEW YORK
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the PHX-NYK non-conference series at Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-3.5 vs PHX)
(537) INDIANA at (538) DETROIT
* Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the Pacers-Pistons divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-12.5 vs IND)
(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) MIAMI
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 ATS in the last eight visits to Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at MIA)
(543) CHARLOTTE at (544) GOLDEN STATE
* Favorites are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups between the Hornets and the Warriors at Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-7.5 vs CHA)
(545) WASHINGTON at (546) DENVER
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Wizards-Nuggets non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 231.5)
(547) LA LAKERS at (548) PORTLAND
* Favorites are on 7-1 SU and ATS run in the last eight of the LAL-POR series
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-3.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 175-66 SU and 141-99-1 ATS (58.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 vs MIN)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 131-100 SU and 133-95-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at DAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 12-41 SU and 21-30-2 ATS (41.2%) in their last 53 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+10.5 vs OKC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 128-103 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 239-201 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-257 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-MIA (spread +10.5, total 233.5), WSH-DEN (spread -12.5, total 232.5)
UNDER – IND-DET (spread -12.5, total 227.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs on a back-to-back situation are 10-33 SU and 18-24-1 ATS (42.9%) since January 2021.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+12.5 at DET)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 106-67-1 ATS (61.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at DAL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 297-165 SU but just 192-257-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-12.5 vs IND)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 170-209 SU and 165-210-4 ATS (44%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-12.5 vs WSH)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 375-327 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-DET (o/u at 227.5), MIN-SAS (o/u at 228.5)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 189-203 SU and 177-205-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+7.5 at GSW)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 170-112 SU and 161-114-7 ATS (58.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at MIA)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 103-68 (60.2%) rate since 2021, including 48-25 (65.8%) to the Over in the last 73.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 232.5)
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 24-75 SU and 44-55 ATS (44.4%) in their last 99 tries.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+12.5 at DEN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 89-22 SU and 60-48-3 ATS (55.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 131-93-2 (58.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-DEN (o/u at 232.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
- Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
- Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
- Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
- Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, MINNESOTA, OKLAHOMA CITY, CHARLOTTE, WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, MINNESOTA, CHARLOTTE, WASHINGTON, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CHARLOTTE, WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, PORTLAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO ML, GOLDEN STATE ML, DENVER ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-DAL, OKC-MIA, LAL-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-DEN
UNDER – UTA-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+1.9)
2. MIAMI +10.5 (+1.6)
3. PHOENIX +3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -12.5 (+4.1)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+2.0)
3. BOSTON -3.5 (+0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +7.5 (+3.8)
2. WASHINGTON +12.5 (+3.2)
3. MIAMI +10.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND -3.5 (+1.0)
2. BOSTON -3.5 (+0.8)
3. SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-DEN OVER 231.5 (+3.0)
2. BOS-ATL OVER 229.5 (+1.3)
3. LAL-POR OVER 223.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-DET UNDER 227.5 (-3.8)
2. UTA-DAL UNDER 241.5 (-2.8)
3. PHX-NYK UNDER 225.5 (-1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: LA LAKERS +3.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -12.5 (+4.2)
2. BOSTON -3.5 (+2.1)
3. NEW YORK -3.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WSH-DEN OVER 231.5 (+3.4)
2. BOS-ATL OVER 229.5 (+2.5)
3. MIN-SAS OVER 228.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-DET UNDER 227.5 (-3.5)
2. UTA-DAL UNDER 241.5 (-3.1)
3. PHX-NYK UNDER 225.5 (-2.0)
