The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, January 31, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 84-34 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

* Over the total is on an extended 17-3 run in the ATL-IND series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND (o/u at 232.5) 

* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 107-114 SU but 127-92-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+8.5 vs MIN)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 84-34 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 25-14 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* CHARLOTTE is 147-107 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): SAS-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 38-35 SU and 32-41 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 55-48 SU and 59-42 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-8.5 at MEM) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 56-47 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-MEM (o/u at 229.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 213-268 SU but 271-202-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at IND) 

* ATLANTA is 133-100 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND (o/u at 232.5) 

* HOUSTON is 121-99 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-HOU (o/u at 223.5)

* MIAMI is 25-11 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-MIA (o/u at 233.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(521) SAN ANTONIO at (522) CHARLOTTE
* Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Spurs-Hornets non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

(523) ATLANTA at (524) INDIANA
* Over the total is on an extended 17-3 run in the ATL-IND series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-IND (o/u at 232.5) 

(525) NEW ORLEANS at (526) PHILADELPHIA
* NEW ORLEANS is 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings with Philadelphia
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+10.5 at PHI) 

(527) MINNESOTA at (528) MEMPHIS
* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Timberwolves-Grizzlies set
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-8.5 at MEM) 

(529) DALLAS at (530) HOUSTON
* Home teams are on an 11-3 ATS surge in the Mavs-Rockets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs DAL) 

(577) CHICAGO at (578) MIAMI
* CHICAGO is 5-2 ATS in the last seven trips to South Beach
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 at MIA)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 133-105 (55.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 246-206 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 329-261 (55.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NOP-PHI (spread -10.5, total 232.5)
UNDER – DAL-HOU (spread -10.5, total 223.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 47-14 SU and 36-25 ATS (59%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-10.5 vs DAL) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 158-58 SU and 128-86-2 ATS (59.8%) in their last 216 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at IND) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 300-167 SU but just 195-259-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-10.5 at NOP), MIAMI (-4.5 at CHI) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 172-214 SU and 166-216-4 ATS (43.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-4.5 at CHA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 193-208 SU and 182-209-10 ATS (46.5%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-8.5 at MEM) 

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 191-165 SU and 196-150-10 ATS (56.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 at IND)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 32-18-1 (64%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-CHA (o/u at 227.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 107-114 SU but 127-92-3 ATS (58%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+8.5 vs MIN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, ATLANTA, MINNESOTA, DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, MINNESOTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, HOUSTON ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NOP-PHI, MIN-MEM, CHI-MIA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – ATL-IND
UNDER – NOP-PHI, CHI-MIA 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.3)
2. INDIANA +1.5 (+1.0)
3. NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+2.9)
2. HOUSTON -10.5 (+2.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.1)
2. INDIANA +1.5 (+0.9)
3. NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -3.5 (+1.0)
2. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+0.3)
3. HOUSTON -10.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-MIA OVER 233.5 (+2.3)
2. NOP-PHI OVER 231.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-HOU UNDER 223.5 (-1.2)
2. SAS-CHA UNDER 227.5 (-0.8)
3. ATL-IND UNDER 232.5 (-0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +1.5 (+1.4)
2. CHICAGO +6.5 (+1.0)
3. NEW ORLEANS +9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -8.5 (+2.6)
2. HOUSTON -10.5 (+2.1) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-IND OVER 232.5 (+3.0)
2. CHI-MIA OVER 233.5 (+2.5)
3. NOP-PHI OVER 231.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-HOU UNDER 223.5 (-0.7)
2. MIN-MEM UNDER 229.5 (-0.6)

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