The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* CHARLOTTE is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with non-conference foe San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at SAS) 

* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 61-71 SU and 46-84-2 ATS (35.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs SAC) 

* Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 74-99-1 ATS (42.8%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs MIL) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* CHARLOTTE is 6-19 SU and 8-17 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at SAS) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 112-85 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CHA-SAS (o/u at 228.5), WSH-BOS (o/u at 230.5) 

* ORLANDO is 122-91 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
* MIAMI is 30-13 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-MIA (o/u at 236.5) 

* ATLANTA is 136-106 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

* BROOKLYN is 12-30 SU but 24-17-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY ATS): BROOKLYN (+8.5 at PHI) 

* LA LAKERS are 40-15 SU and 38-17 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
* LA LAKERS are 2-12 SU and ATS (14.3%) in their last 14 games as an underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA LAKERS (+3.5 vs DEN)

* DENVER is 91-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-LAL (o/u at 246.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a 2 Days Rest scenario are 26-9 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-LAC (o/u at 231.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(547) BROOKLYN at (548) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the BKN-PHI divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+8.5 at PHI) 

(549) MILWAUKEE at (550) ATLANTA
* Road teams are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 non-neutral meetings between MIL and ATL
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+9.5 at ATL) 

(551) WASHINGTON at (552) BOSTON
* BOSTON is 7-0 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games hosting Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-19.5 vs WSH) 

(553) CHARLOTTE at (554) SAN ANTONIO
* CHARLOTTE is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with non-conference foe San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+5.5 at SAS) 

(555) ORLANDO at (556) MIAMI
* Over the total has converted in five of the last six matchups between ORL and MIA at the Kaseya Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MIA (o/u at 236.5)

(557) DENVER at (558) LA LAKERS
* Favorites are on a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS surge in the DEN-LAL set
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-3.5 at LAL) 

(559) SACRAMENTO at (560) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Kings-Clippers divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 at LAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-113 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 258-213 (54.8%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-276 (55.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-BOS (spread -19.5, total 230.5)
UNDER – SAC-LAC (spread -13.5, total 231.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 98-41 SU and 82-64-3 ATS (56.2%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-8.5 vs BKN) 

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 26-13 SU and 25-12-2 ATS (67.6%) since early-March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 vs ORL) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 192-112 SU but 140-160-4 ATS (46.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 112-142 ATS (44.1%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 vs CHA) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 114-77-1 ATS (59.7%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+19.5 at BOS) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under he total the next game, 398-345 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIL-ATL (o/u at 227.5), DEN-LAL (o/u at 246.5) 

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-81 SU and 49-59 ATS (45.4%) in their L108 tries.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+8.5 at PHI) 

Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 61-71 SU and 46-84-2 ATS (35.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs SAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 153-27 SU but 78-99-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs SAC)
ALSO WATCH FOR ATLANTA vs MIL (-9.5 CURRENTLY) 

NBA Streak Betting System #5:
Teams having won their last four games and playing on a b2b as favorites of 4 points or more versus below-.500 teams are 54-12 SU and 40-26 ATS (60.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-13.5 vs SAC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #8:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are playing their fourth straight road game have been bad, going 10-35 SU and 17-27-1 ATS (38.6%) against conference opponents since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+19.5 at BOS) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 312-359-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 42-165 SU and 91-110-6 ATS (45.3%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+19.5 at BOS), ATLANTA (-9.5 vs MIL), MIAMI (-3.5 vs ORL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 74-99-1 ATS (42.8%) in the next game.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs MIL) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:40 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DENVER 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, BOSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-ATL, WSH-BOS, ORL-MIA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BKN-PHI

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+1.5)
2. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+1.0)
3. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -19.5 (+1.2)
2. MIAMI -3.5 (+1.0)
3. LA CLIPPERS -13.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +13.5 (+2.1)
2. LA LAKERS +2.5 (+0.5)
3. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIAMI -3.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-LAL OVER 244.5 (+1.6)
2. WSH-BOS OVER 230.5 (+1.2)
3. ORL-MIA OVER 235.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-LAC UNDER 231.5 (-3.4)
2. BKN-PHI UNDER 217.5 (-0.9)
3. CHA-SAS UNDER 228.5 (-0.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +9.5 (+2.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -3.5 (+3.0)
2. LA CLIPPERS -13.5 (+2.7)
3. BOSTON -19.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHA-SAS OVER 228.5 (+0.9)
DEN-LAL OVER 244.5 (+0.9)
3. MIL-ATL OVER 228.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-LAL UNDER 231.5 (-5.7)
2. WSH-BOS UNDER 230.5 (-3.6)
3. BKN-PHI UNDER 217.5 (-1.9)

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