Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS (81.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-11.5 vs MIL)
* NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 Over the total (71.4%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NOP (o/u at 236.5)
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 312-171 SU but just 202-268-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs IND)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* WASHINGTON is 6-44 SU and 16-34 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+20.5 vs OKC)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 26-11 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-ATL (o/u at 229.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 226-289 SU but 287-220-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at DAL)
* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 55-33 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-DAL (o/u at 233.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 155-112 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-CHA (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 113-90 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
* ORLANDO is 122-94 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
System/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-ORL (o/u at 232.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 72-57 SU and 70-58 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at HOU)
* HOUSTON is 23-11 Under the total (66.7%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-HOU (o/u at 229.5)
* NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 Over the total (71.4%) vs. teams currently winning more than 60% of their games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-NOP (o/u at 236.5)
* PHILADELPHIA is 28-11 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
* UTAH is 104-76 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-UTA (o/u at 230.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) OKLAHOMA CITY at (502) WASHINGTON
* Over the total has converted in all eight matchups between OKC and WSH since the start of 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-WSH (o/u at 231.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games with Washington as well
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-20.5 at WSH)
(503) MEMPHIS at (504) CHARLOTTE
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the MEM-CHA non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-17.5 vs MEM)
(505) LA LAKERS at (506) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 9-8 SU and 14-3 ATS in the LAL-ORL cross-country series since the start of 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+2.5 vs LAL)
(507) CLEVELAND at (508) NEW ORLEANS
* CLEVELAND is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven matchups with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-4.5 at NOP)
(509) MIAMI at (510) HOUSTON
* MIAMI is on an extended 15-3-1 ATS run in their last 19 games with Houston
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+1.5 at HOU)
(511) INDIANA at (512) SAN ANTONIO
* SAN ANTONIO is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings with Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs IND)
(513) GOLDEN STATE at (514) ATLANTA
* ATLANTA has won and covered the last six times Golden State has come to town
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-10.5 vs GSW)
(515) LA CLIPPERS at (516) DALLAS
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the Clippers-Mavs series in Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 at DAL)
(517) PHILADELPHIA at (518) UTAH
* Underdogs are on a 2-4 SU but 6-0 ATS surge in the PHI-UTA non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+6.5 vs PHI)
(519) MILWAUKEE at (520) PHOENIX
* Favorites are 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 of the Bucks-Suns series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-11.5 vs MIL)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 139-114 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 261-217 (54.6%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-280 (55.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-WSH (spread +20.5, total 229.5), MEM-CHA (spread -17.5, total 235.5), IND-SAS (spread -18.5, total 233.5), GSW-ATL (spread -10.5, total 229.5), MIL-PHX (spread -11.5, total 220.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 102-65 SU and 90-75-2 ATS (54.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-17.5 vs MEM)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 312-171 SU but just 202-268-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs IND)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 346-263 SU but 279-315-15 ATS (47%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): UTAH (+6.5 vs PHI)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 399-346 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-ORL (o/u at 232.5)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 110-76 (59.1%) rate since 2021, including 55-33 (62.5%) to the Over in the L88.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-CHA (o/u at 235.5), GSW-ATL (o/u at 229.5)
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-82 SU and 50-59 ATS (45.9%) in their last 109 tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MEMPHIS (+17.5 at CHA), INDIANA (+18.5 at SAS)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 154-28 SU but 79-100-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-18.5 vs LAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 98-24 SU and 67-52-3 ATS (56.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-20.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 52-17 SU and 47-20-2 ATS (70.1%) in their last 69 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-7.5 at DAL)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-107-2 (56.3%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): OKC-WSH (o/u at 231.5), LAC-DAL (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS (81.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-11.5 vs MIL)
NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least 4 games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 38-93 SU but 71-60 ATS (54.2%) over the last five seasons.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+20.5 vs OKC), INDIANA (+18.5 at SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 322-368-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 42-169 SU and 92-113-6 ATS (44.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-20.5 at WSH), WASHINGTON (+20.5 vs OKC), LA LAKERS (-2.5 at ORL), INDIANA (+18.5 at SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 78-101-1 ATS (43.6%) in the next game, including 37-52 ATS (41.6%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY (-20.5 at WSH), LA LAKERS (-2.5 at ORL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 8:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS, CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on the home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS, CLEVELAND, HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO, ATLANTA, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, ORLANDO ML, HOUSTON ML, ATLANTA ML, PHOENIX ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-SAS, GSW-ATL, LAC-DAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – OKC-WSH, MEM-CHA, MIA-HOU, GSW-ATL, PHI-UTA
UNDER – IND-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Undermajorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-SAS, GSW-ATL, LAC-DAL
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +10.5 (+3.5)
2. DALLAS +7.5 (+1.7)
3. NEW ORLEANS +4.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -20.5 (+4.1)
2. SAN ANTONIO -18.5 (+3.5)
3. HOUSTON -1.5 (+2.1)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +7.5 (+6.9)
2. WASHINGTON +20.5 (+5.5)
3. GOLDEN STATE +10.5 (+3.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -18.5 (+1.8)
2. HOUSTON -1.5 (+1.3)
3. CHARLOTTE -17.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-WSH OVER 231.5 (+0.5)
2. IND-SAS OVER 233.5 (+0.4)
3. MIA-HOU OVER 229.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-DAL UNDER 234.5 (-2.0)
2. MEM-CHA UNDER 234.5 (-1.9)
3. MIL-PHX UNDER 219.5 (-1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +20.5 (+7.6)
2. GOLDEN STATE +10.5 (+4.1)
3. DALLAS +7.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -18.5 (+3.3)
2. CHARLOTTE -17.5 (+2.4)
3. PHILADELPHIA -5.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. IND-SAS OVER 233.5 (+3.5)
2. PHI-UTA OVER 229.5 (+1.9)
3. CLE-NOP OVER 236.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-PHX UNDER 219.5 (-3.0)
2. MEM-CHA UNDER 234.5 (-2.4)
3. LAC-DAL UNDER 234.5 (-2.2)
