Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 1, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total has converted in 12 straight SAC-MIL meetings in Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-MIL (o/u at 232.5)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3: NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 83-33 SU and 70-45-1 ATS (60.9%).
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8.5 at WSH)
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 164-105 SU and 156-106-7 ATS (59.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs DET)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* MILWAUKEE is 16-2 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-MIL (o/u at 232.5)
* CHARLOTTE is 132-98 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-CHA (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 74-45 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games last season
* ORLANDO is 102-73 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-WSH (o/u at 234.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 42-31 SU and 42-30 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-10.5 at IND)
* GOLDEN STATE is 117-88 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-IND (o/u at 230.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 12-13 SU but 16-9 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home, back-to-back games over the last two seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5.5 at BOS)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 83-33 SU and 70-45-1 ATS (60.9%).
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-116 SU and 61-85-5 ATS (41.8%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs ORL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-178 (56%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 296-227 (56.6%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-IND (spread at IND +10.5, total at 230.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
135 points in a win is a team score to watch for
Teams that won their last game while scoring 135 or more points are on a 255-138 SU but 182-203-8 ATS (47.3%) skid in the follow-up contest when favored.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-5.5 at BOS), DETROIT (-7.5 vs DAL)
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 80-56 SU and 72-62-2 ATS (53.7%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 26-17 ATS (60.5%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5.5 at BOS)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 156-72 SU and 130-94-4 ATS (58%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at CHA)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 154-191 SU and 148-193-4 ATS (43.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-7.5 vs DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 334-281 (54.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-DET (o/u at 227.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 301-318 SU and 278-333-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at CHA)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 164-105 SU and 156-106-7 ATS (59.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs DET)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 50-59 SU and 40-67-2 ATS (37.4%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+5.5 vs HOU)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(525) SACRAMENTO (1-4) at (526) MILWAUKEE (4-1)
* Over the total has converted in 12 straight SAC-MIL meetings in Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-MIL (o/u at 232.5)
(527) MINNESOTA (2-3) at (528) CHARLOTTE (2-3)
* Favorites are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the MIN-CHA set at Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 at CHA)
(529) ORLANDO (2-4) at (530) WASHINGTON (1-4)
* Favorites are on 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS run in the ORL-WSH divisional rivalry at Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-8.5 at WSH)
(531) GOLDEN STATE (4-2) at (532) INDIANA (0-5)
* Under the total is 8-2 in the last 10 of the Warriors-Pacers non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-IND (o/u at 230.5)
(533) HOUSTON (2-2) at (534) BOSTON (3-3)
* Favorites are on 4-1 SU and ATS run in the HOU-BOS series at Boston, but did lose last time
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-5.5 at BOS)
(535) DALLAS (2-3) vs (536) DETROIT (3-2)
* Underdogs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the DAL-DET non-conference series since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+7.5 vs DET)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, GOLDEN STATE, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE, HOUSTON, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE ML
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +10.5 (+2.2)
2. BOSTON +5.5 (+1.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+1.9)
2. DETROIT -7.5 (+0.8)
3. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +10.5 (+3.6)
2. DALLAS +7.5 (+3.3)
3. BOSTON +5.5 (+0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MINNESOTA -5.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-BOS OVER 225.5 (+0.2)
2. MIN-CHA OVER 231.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-WSH UNDER 234.5 (-3.7)
2. SAC-MIL UNDER 232.5 (-2.0)
3. DAL-DET UNDER 227.5 (-1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON +5.5 (+1.7)
2. INDIANA +10.5 (+1.6)
3. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+2.2)
2. ORLANDO -8.5 (+0.5)
3. DETROIT -7.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-CHA OVER 231.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-MIL UNDER 232.5 (-6.2)
2. ORL-WSH UNDER 234.5 (-4.7)
3. DAL-DET UNDER 227.5 (-2.6)
