Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, November 15, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 81-19 SU and 56-41-3 ATS (57.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at CHA)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 77-51 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-IND (o/u at 233.5)
* NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 89-55-1 (61.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIL (o/u at 230.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 13-13 SU but 17-9 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at CHA)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 77-51 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-IND (o/u at 233.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(519) MEMPHIS (4-9) at (520) CLEVELAND (8-5)
* Over the total is 5-2-1 in the last eight of the MEM-CLE non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-CLE (o/u at 238.5)
(521) OKLAHOMA CITY (12-1) at (522) CHARLOTTE (4-8)
* Under the total is 7-1 in the Thunder-Hornets set in Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-CHA (o/u at 226.5)
(523) TORONTO (7-5) at (524) INDIANA (1-11)
* Underdogs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the TOR-IND series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6.5 vs TOR)
(525) LA LAKERS (9-4) at (526) MILWAUKEE (8-5)
* Road teams are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in the LAL-MIL series since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-1.5 at MIL)
(527) DENVER (9-2) at (528) MINNESOTA (8-4)
* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the DEN-MIN divisional rivalry at the Target Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-MIN (o/u at 234.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 117-96 (54.9%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 228-181 (55.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 303-232 (56.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MEM-CLE (o/u at 238.5), OKC-CHA (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Fade teams off of Overtime games
Teams that played in an overtime game the prior day are on a 59-94 SU and 61-87-5 ATS (41.2%) slide, including 32-56-3 ATS in the last 91 games and 20-38 ATS when a pick ’em or favorite.
System Match (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+15.5 vs OKC), MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs LAL)
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 89-55-1 (61.8%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIL (o/u at 230.5)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 341-297 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MIN (o/u at 234.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 303-319 SU and 279-335-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs LAL)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 69-51 SU and 71-48-1 ATS (59.7%) in their last 120 tries.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+1.5 vs LAL)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 81-19 SU and 56-41-3 ATS (57.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at CHA)
NBA Streak Betting System #3:
Teams having won their last five games or more but are playing as underdogs against elite teams with a win pct >= 65% have seen their totals go Under at a 31-17-1 (64.6%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-MIN (o/u at 234.5)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, TORONTO, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND ML
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MEMPHIS +11.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+1.6)
2. TORONTO -6.5 (+0.7)
3. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.0)
2. DENVER +2.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+3.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-CHA OVER 226.5 (+1.9)
2. LAL-MIL OVER 230.5 (+1.2)
3. DEN-MIN OVER 234.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: TOR-IND UNDER 233.5 (-1.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: MEMPHIS +11.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+2.2)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.7)
3. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEM-CLE OVER 238.5 (+4.7)
2. OKC-CHA OVER 226.5 (+4.0)
3. DEN-MIN OVER 234.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TOR-IND UNDER 233.5 (-2.6)
2. LAL-MIL UNDER 230.5 (-0.6)
