Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 11/7. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go OVER at a 99-66-1 (60%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-ATL (o/u at 226.5)
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 191-88 SU & 155-120-4 ATS (56.4%) (sub-system: 95-32 SU & 74-49-4 ATS (60.2%) when favored by 4-points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at PHX)
* OVER the total has converted in nine straight h2h matchups between Washington and Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-OKC (o/u at 222.5)
Schedule situations crucial for NBA handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in the A2H b2b game scenario are 48-29 UNDER the total vs. teams playing a A2A b2b game over the L3 Seasons
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-OKC (o/u at 222.5), SAS-POR (o/u at 226.5)
* NBA teams playing on the ROAD in the 2DaysRest game scenario are 41-23 UNDER the total vs. teams playing a 3rdHomein4Days game over the since ’21
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-PHX (o/u at 223.5)
* SAN ANTONIO is 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS playing in A2A b2b scenario since Oct ’24
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR)
* WASHINGTON is 0-15 SU & 2-13 ATS playing in 4thin6Days games since Feb ’26
* WASHINGTON is 8-22 SU & 11-19 ATS (36.7%) vs. the lowest scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at OKC)
* GOLDEN STATE is 133-127 SU but 112-144 ATS playing in OneDayRest games since Jan ’22
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ORL)
* GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER the total (85%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-GSW (o/u at 222.5)
Top Daily H2h Series Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series trends in play for all of today’s games:
(551) DENVER vs (552) INDIANA
* DENVER is 4-1 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in their L5 games versus Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-7.5 vs IND)
(553) BROOKLYN at (554) ATLANTA
* BROOKLYN is 1-5 SU & 5-1 ATS in their L6 trips to Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+6.5 at ATL)
(555) WASHINGTON at (556) OKLAHOMA CITY
* OVER the total has converted in nine straight h2h matchups between Washington and Oklahoma City
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-OKC (o/u at 222.5)
(557) NEW YORK at (558) CLEVELAND
* NEW YORK has won and covered the last four h2h meetings with Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 at CLE)
(559) ORLANDO at (560) GOLDEN STATE
* HOME TEAMS are 8-3 SU & ATS in L11 of Magic-Warriors h2h cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-5.5 vs ORL)
(561) HOUSTON at (562) PHOENIX
* HOUSTON is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in their L13 games versus Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at PHX)
(563) SAN ANTONIO at (564) PORTLAND
* UNDER the total is 7-1 in L8 of Spurs-Trail Blazers h2h set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAS-POR (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based upon some various team strength indicator or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the L5 seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, UNDER the total has gone 149-128 (53.8%). In non-conference games, OVER the total was 279-234 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, OVER the total was 373-307 (54.9%).
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-OKC (spread OKC -11.5, o/u at 222.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the L6 seasons unless noted.
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
4) NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go OVER at a 99-66-1 (60%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-ATL (o/u at 226.5)
Large favorites off a solid defensive win
5) NBA teams off a win where they allowed <= 105 points and are now large favorites (-11 or more) in the next contest have had their totals go OVER at a 201-139-1 (59.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-OKC (o/u at 222.5)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
8) NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 191-88 SU & 155-120-4 ATS (56.4%) (sub-system: 95-32 SU & 74-49-4 ATS (60.2%) when favored by 4-points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-6.5 at PHX)
Rout games can be significant
13) NBA teams coming off any game in which they won by 30 points or more have performed well in expected tight matchups (-4.5 to +4.5 line range) next time out, going 111-78 SU & 114-72-3 ATS (61.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 at CLE)
Unusual shooting performance systems
16) NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 436-373 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NYK-CLE (o/u at 224.5), SAS-POR (o/u at 226.5)
17) NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 367-373 SU & 336-396-8 ATS (45.9%) in the next game over the last six seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+11.5 at OKC), PHOENIX (+6.5 vs HOU), SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR)
Unusual defensive performances
20) NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 195-133 SU & 182-139-7 ATS (56.7%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-11.5 vs WSH)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
26) Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 69-75 SU & 53-89-2 ATS (37.3%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (-6.5 vs BKN), SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of 7-games or more become play against teams in general, going 347-393-4 ATS (46.9%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-5.5 at POR)
Strategies using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the BETTING SPLITS pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:20 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the HANDLE has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 990-905 ATS (52.2%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -5.5 units and a ROI of -0.3%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, NEW YORK, HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority HANDLE backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 579-526 ATS record (52.4%), going for +0.4 unit of profit and a ROI of +0.04%.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning NUMBER of BETS. When 70% or more of the NUMBER of BETS has been on a HOME side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 118-156 ATS (43.1%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -53.6 units for a ROI of -19.8%.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA Non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority HANDLE groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 557-489 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +19.1 units of profit and a ROI of +1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, GOLDEN STATE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with HANDLE groups of that size boasting a 690-612 ATS record, good for 53%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +16.8 units of profit and a ROI of +1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, HOUSTON, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a MASSIVE disparity of success levels for majority groups on HANDLE when they back the HOME OR ROAD team on MONEY LINE wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1765-790 over the last three seasons but for -308.85 units and a ROI of -12.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1356-892 but for just -42.75 units and a ROI of -1.9%. This 10%+ disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams consistently.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML, GOLDEN STATE ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of HANDLE bettors were backing the UNDER in a NBA game. When any majority number have favored the UNDER option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with UNDER the total on these games going 568-470, good for 54.7%, +51 units, and a R.O.I. of +4.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-IND, NYK-CLE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority HANDLE UNDER bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These UNDER majorities have gone 225-176 (56.1%) since January ’23 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +31.4 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-IND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority HANDLE on an OVER that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority HANDLE bettors are on OVER for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 355-278 (56.1%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best units off all angle has produced +49.2 units of profit for +7.8%.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ORL-GSW, HOU-PHX
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+3.8)
2. PORTLAND +5.5 (+2.0)
3. INDIANA +7.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -5.5 (+2.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -11.5 (+1.9)
3. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+4.2)
2. WASHINGTON +11.5 (+2.5)
3. INDIANA +7.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -5.5 (+4.2)
2. HOUSTON -6.5 (+3.4)
3. ATLANTA -7.5 (+0.9)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-ATL OVER 227.5 (+3.6)
2. WSH-OKC OVER 222.5 (+1.1)
3. HOU-PHX OVER 224.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-IND UNDER 229.5 (-3.6)
2. SAS-POR UNDER 226.5 (-0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND +4.5 (+3.0)
2. INDIANA +7.5 (+2.3)
3. PORTLAND +5.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -5.5 (+2.1)
2. ATLANTA -7.5 (+1.6)
3. HOUSTON -6.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-IND OVER 229.5 (+4.0)
2. WSH-OKC OVER 222.5 (+3.6)
3. HOU-PHX OVER 224.5 (+3.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORL-GSW UNDER 222.5 (-2.5)
