The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games on 10/24. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s NBA games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Home teams are 10-5 SU and 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings between New Orleans and Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-11.5 vs NOP)

* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 179-223 SU & 175-223-4 ATS (44%) (sub-system: 18-48 SU and 21-43-2 ATS (32.8%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late January 2021.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+1.5 at ATL)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 32-16 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-PHX (o/u at 221.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.

* WASHINGTON is 5-21 SU and 8-18 ATS (30.8%) vs. the lowest-scoring teams in the league this season (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHI)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home/away game scenario are 14-22 SU and 10-25 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd Home in 4 Days game over the last three Seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHI), SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

* ATLANTA is 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS (20%) at a home favorite of -1 to-5 points since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs HOU)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back away/home game scenario are 48-27 Under the total vs. teams playing a back-to-back away game over the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

* CLEVELAND is 11-4 SU but 3-12 ATS (20%) as a double-digit home favorite since the start of last season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs BKN)

* DENVER is 17-3 Over the total (85%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-DEN (o/u at 239.5)

* NBA teams playing in the back-to-back home game scenario were 26-36 SU & 23-39 ATS vs. teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
* MIAMI is 17-6 SU and ATS (73.9%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league (scoring <114 PPG), since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA)

* GOLDEN STATE is 2-11 SU and ATS (15.4%) on the road vs teams currently allowing more than 118 PPG, since the start of last season
* PHOENIX is 17-2 SU and 15-4 ATS (78.9%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games, since the start of last season
* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario were 34-14 SU and 33-15 ATS hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game last season
System/Trends Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-9.5 vs GSW)

* NBA teams playing at home in the 2 Days Rest game scenario are 32-16 Over the total hosting teams playing a 3rd in 4 Days game over the last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-PHX (o/u at 221.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(557) MIAMI at (558) CHARLOTTE
* MIAMI is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six of the divisional series with Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA)

(559) MILWAUKEE at (560) PHILADELPHIA
* Favorites are on 9-1 SU and ATS run in the Bucks-76ers series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-12.5 vs MIL)
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-PHI (o/u at 235.5)

(561) BROOKLYN at (562) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 7-3 in the last 10 of the Nets-Cavs set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-CLE (o/u at 228.5)

(563) HOUSTON at (564) ATLANTA
* Under the total is 9-2 in the Rockets-Hawks non-conference series at Atlanta since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

(565) WASHINGTON at (566) CHICAGO
* Under the total is on a 13-2 run in the Wizards-Bulls series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHI (o/u at 244.5)

(567) SAN ANTONIO at (568) DALLAS
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six matchups between San Antonio and Dallas
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-DAL (o/u at 232.5)

(569) NEW ORLEANS at (570) DENVER
* Home teams are 10-5 SU and 13-2 ATS in the last 15 meetings between New Orleans and Denver
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-11.5 vs NOP)

(571) GOLDEN STATE at (572) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is 10-3 SU and ATS in the last 13 instances hosting Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-9.5 vs GSW)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last six NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 101-43 SU and 88-55-1 ATS (61.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 145-127 (53.3%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 279-233 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 366-298 (55.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-CLE (spread CLE -11.5, o/u at 227.5), MIL-PHI (spread PHI -12.5, o/u at
235.5), NOP-DEN (spread DEN -11.5, o/u at 239.5)
UNDER – SAS-DAL (spread SAS -12.5, o/u at 232.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, road teams playing on a back-to-back are 16-19 SU and ATS (45.7%) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA)

Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 60-16 SU and 46-30 ATS (60.5%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last six seasons unless noted.

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 98-65-1 (60.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-CHI (o/u at 244.5)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 121-83-1 ATS (59.3%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+12.5 at PHI), NEW ORLEANS (+11.5 at DEN)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 168-62 SU and 136-92-2 ATS (59.6%) in their last 230 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER (-11.5 vs NOP), PHOENIX (-9.5 vs GSW)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 187-88 SU and 151-120-4 ATS (55.7%) (sub-system: 91-32 SU and 70-49-4 ATS (58.8%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

Early season large wins lead to Unders
NBA teams who won their previous game by 25+ points have gone Under the total at a 30-13-1 (69.8%) rate in games 2-5 of the season in the last 44 tries.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-ATL (o/u at 227.5)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 358-270 SU but 293-320-15 ATS (47.8%) over the last eight seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 53-80-1 ATS (39.8%).
System Match (FADE ATS): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs HOU), DALLAS (+12.5 vs SAS)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 179-223 SU and 175-223-4 ATS (44%) (sub-system: 18-48 SU and 21-43-2 ATS (32.8%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+1.5 at ATL)

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 117-78 SU and 109-83-3 ATS (56.8%) in that follow-up try over the last six seasons.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throws attempted trended Under the total the next game, 423-362 (53.9%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHI (o/u at 244.5)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 192-131 SU and 181-135-7 ATS (57.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs HOU), PHOENIX (-9.5 vs GSW)

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 104-76 SU & 106-73-1 ATS (59.2%) in their last 180 tries.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 vs MIA), WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHI)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 234-203 ATS (53.5%) over the last four seasons, good for +10.7 units of profit and a ROI of 2.4%. This is fairly a profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs HOU)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 973-888 ATS (52.3%) over the last four seasons. This has produced -3.8 units and an ROI of -0.2%. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHI), SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 563-507 ATS record (52.6%), good for +5.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 113-155 ATS (42.2%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -57.5 units for an ROI of -21.5%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-11.5 vs BKN)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 552-483 ATS (53.3%). This simple angle has produced +20.7 units of profit and an ROI of +2%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-1.5 vs HOU)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 673-591 ATS record, good for 53.2%. This is about a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +22.9 units of profit and an ROI of +1.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+2.5 at CHI), DENVER (-11.5 vs NOP)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with supermajority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however: 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last four seasons, they are just 201-220 ATS, good for 47.7%. This is almost a 3% drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.0 units of loss and a ROI of -9.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-3.5 at CHA), SAN ANTONIO (-12.5 at DAL), PHOENIX (-9.5 vs GSW)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last four seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 549-456, good for 54.6%, +47.4 units, and an ROI of +4.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIA-CHA (o/u at 229.5), BKN-CLE (o/u at 227.5), WSH-CHI (o/u at 244.5), GSW-PHX (o/u at 221.5)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 222-169 (56.8%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been a very profitable angle in terms of ROI, producing +36.1 units of profit for +9.2%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-CHI (o/u at 244.5)

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Essentially the opposite of #13 above is the situation when so much money is coming in on majority handle on an Over that DraftKings is forced to move a total higher. When 77% or more majority handle bettors are on Over for a game that has seen its total rise since opening, that group has gone 351-275 (56.1%) since January ’23. This recently discovered and best units off all angle has produced +48.5 units of profit for +7.7%.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-DAL (o/u at 232.5)

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+3.0)
2. HOUSTON +1.5 (+2.4)
3. NEW ORLEANS +11.5 (+2.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA -12.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +12.5 (+7.8)
2. DALLAS +12.5 (+4.2)
3. NEW ORLEANS +11.5 (+2.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: PHOENIX -9.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-ATL OVER 227.5 (+0.8)
2. WSH-CHI OVER 244.5 (+0.1)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-PHI UNDER 235.5 (-2.7)
2. SAS-DAL UNDER 232.5 (-2.3)
3. GSW-PHX UNDER 221.5 (-1.4)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+3.7)
2. NEW ORLEANS +11.5 (+2.4)
3. CHARLOTTE +3.5 (+2.3)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA -12.5 (+1.3)
2. CLEVELAND -11.5 (+0.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-PHX OVER 221.5 (+3.7)
2. NOP-DEN OVER 239.5 (+2.6)
3. WSH-CHI OVER 244.5 (+1.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-PHI UNDER 235.5 (-2.8)
2. HOU-ATL UNDER 227.5 (-1.6)
3. SAS-DAL UNDER 232.5 (-0.8)

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