Rays vs. Brewers
Game 1 between the Rays and Brewers gave us all kinds of drama on Friday night. Will Game 2 feature the same?
The Rays tried to sneak Game 1 through with Nick Martinez to give Drew Rasmussen an extra day of rest and preparation and it nearly worked, as Martinez gave up two runs in the first inning, but pitched four shutout frames after that. Jacob Misiorowski only had three strikeouts over his five innings, but Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby were outstanding before Trever Megill made things interesting in the ninth.
Now Rasmussen gets his turn as the Rays look to steal away home-field advantage, while Milwaukee counters with another young fireballer in Logan Henderson.
Rays vs. Brewers (-120, 6.5) World Series Game 2 Prediction
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
Tampa Bay opted to send out Martinez with a fully-stocked bullpen, expecting that Rasmussen would be able to give them some length if need be in Game 2. I was very surprised to see that Steven Matz was the first guy out of the pen and his three walks and Kevin Kelly’s three hits allowed led to an insurance run that proved to be insurmountable.
All in all, the game was kind of what we expected. The Rays made a lot of contact off of Miz, but weren’t quite able to cash it in fully enough. The Brewers’ specialists generated some swings and misses. The Brewers battled for most of their plate appearances. Milwaukee was 2-for-8 with RISP. Tampa Bay was 0-for-6. That was the game right there.
However, as they say, “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher” and the Rays will send out their ace. Rasmussen was actually drafted by the Brewers in 2018 and was with them until 2021, when he was traded in the Willy Adames deal. That deal worked out well for both sides, but could really work out well here for the Rays if Rasmussen can pitch them to a split at AmFam Field. Given what Rasmussen has done thus far, a good start should be the expectation. He’s allowed three runs on 13 hits with a 23/3 K/BB ratio in 21 innings, including eight one-hit, shutout innings against the Yankees in the ALDS.
Like Martinez, he’s a guy who pounds the strike zone and is very stingy about walks. Unlike Martinez, he generates a high rate of swings and misses and throws hard. The Brewers led the league in BB% during the regular season and now face another guy who doesn’t walk very many batters. He also only gave up 14 home runs in 172 innings of work. So, much like last night, the Brewers will need to manufacture their runs, as a big blast probably isn’t coming.
Henderson has only gone nine innings over his two postseason starts with six runs allowed on five hits and five walks. Only three of the runs are earned, but he’s also hit a guy, thrown two wild pitches, and only has six strikeouts. Henderson punched out 29.6% of batters during the regular season and only walked 5.1% of them. He even threw just one wild pitch during the regular season and has exceeded that in the playoffs.
I’m not sure if it’s fatigue or nerves for the 24-year-old. Probably some of both. He did allow an 8.3% Barrel% with a 36.9% Hard Hit% in the regular season, so the swings and misses were a huge part of his success, a luxury he may not have here against the Rays.
I would expect DL Hall to feature prominently in this game for Milwaukee. They used their top three relief arms yesterday and won’t shy away from using them here, but they’ll likely need a bridge to the leverage guys. Hall, who had a 1.91 ERA with a 3.42 xERA and a 3.88 FIP in 61.1 innings during the regular season, has not allowed a run in four playoff appearances and actually has been the pitcher of record with three wins, an example of how manager Pat Murphy likes to use him behind a starter.
Rays vs. Brewers Game 2 World Series Prediction
I like the Rays 1st 5 in this one. Rasmussen has been spectacular and he won’t be overcome by the moment. Henderson has been very shaky this postseason and I’m concerned that he’ll be pitching from behind a bit here. But, the Brewers bullpen does strike me as the more reliable unit based on what we’ve seen this postseason and with Murphy’s reliever usage, so I’m just going 1st 5 on TB and we’ll see what happens later in the game.
Pick: Rays 1st 5 (-115)
