The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, April 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 145-109-2 (57.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHX-CHI (o/u at 240.5), UTA-OKC (o/u at 239.5) 

* ORLANDO is on an absurd 13-2 SU and ATS run versus New Orleans, including eight straight wins and covers when visiting the Smoothie King Center
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-4.5 at NOP) 

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: MEMPHIS +6.5 at MIL (projections have line at MEM +1.1) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away scenario are 32-49 SU and  31-49-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
* WASHINGTON is 5-20 SU and 8-17 ATS (32%) vs. the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, currently scoring <114 PPG
System/Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at BKN) 

* BROOKLYN is 23-14 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-BKN (o/u at 230.5) 

* PHOENIX is 15-2 SU and ATS (88.2%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-9.5 at CHI) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 120-97 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-CHI (o/u at 240.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 231-297 SU but 291-229-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (+24.5 at OKC), HOUSTON (-3.5 at GSW), INDIANA (+15.5 at CLE) 

* CLEVELAND is 9-4 SU but 2-11 ATS (15.4%) as a double-digit home favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-15.5 vs IND)

* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 58-36 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-CLE (o/u at 239.5) 

* UTAH is 109-78 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-OKC (o/u at 239.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 158-114 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-MIN (o/u at 226.5) 

* ORLANDO is 122-99 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-NOP (o/u at 237.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for today’s games: 

(501) MEMPHIS at (502) MILWAUKEE
* MEMPHIS is on a 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS surge versus Milwaukee since the start of 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+6.5 at MIL) 

(503) WASHINGTON at (504) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 5-1 SU and  4-1-1 ATS in the last six instances hosting Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (-3.5 vs WSH) 

(507) TORONTO at (508) BOSTON
* Over the total has converted in three of the last four matchups between Toronto and Boston at TD Garden
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-BOS (o/u at 219.5)

(509) INDIANA at (510) CLEVELAND
* INDIANA is on a 9-1 ATS run in their last 10 trips to Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+15.5 at CLE) 

(511) CHARLOTTE at (512) MINNESOTA
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and  ATS in the last six of the CHA-MIN  non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-2.5 at MIN) 

(513) ORLANDO at (514) NEW ORLEANS
* ORLANDO is on an absurd 13-2 SU and  ATS run versus New Orleans, including eight straight wins and covers when visiting the Smoothie King Center
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-4.5 at NOP) 

(515) UTAH at (516) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Road teams are 6-0 ATS in the last six of the Jazz-Thunder divisional set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+24.5 at OKC) 

(517) LA LAKERS at (518) DALLAS
* Under the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the Lakers-Mavs series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-DAL (o/u at 234.5) 

(519) LA CLIPPERS at (520) SACRAMENTO
* Underdogs are 3-4 SU but 6-1 ATS in LAC-SAC divisional rivalry since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 vs LAC) 

(521) HOUSTON at (522) GOLDEN STATE
* Underdogs are 5-1 ATS in the HOU-GSW matchups since Game 4 of their WCF First Round series last year
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+3.5 vs HOU) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 142-113 SU and  144-108-3 ATS (57.1%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at BKN)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 141-117 (54.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 276-231 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 358-284 (55.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNDER – IND-CLE (spread -15.5, total 239.5), UTA-OKC (spread -23.5, total 239.5), LAC-SAC (spread +12.5, total 228.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 99-41 SU and  82-65-3 ATS (55.8%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-9.5 vs TOR)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 32-15 (68.1%) rate in the last 47 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-OKC (o/u at 239.5) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 12-9 SU but 5-16 ATS (23.8%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-24.5 vs UTA) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 197-115 SU but 142-166-4 ATS (46.1%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 114-148 ATS (43.5%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BROOKLYN (-3.5 vs WSH), ORLANDO (-4.5 at NOP), LA LAKERS (-1.5 at DAL) 

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 105-69 SU and  93-79-2 ATS (54.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-9.5 vs TOR) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 120-80-1 ATS (60%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3.5 at BKN)

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 183-85 SU and  149-115-4 ATS (56.4%) (sub-system: 88-30 SU and  69-45-4 ATS (60.5%) when favored by 4-points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-12.5 at SAC)

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 350-265 SU but 284-316-15 ATS (47.3%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 49-77-1 ATS (38.9%).
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-24.5 vs UTA) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 403-354 (53.2%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-BOS (o/u at 219.5), ORL-NOP (o/u at 237.5) 

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 355-364 SU and  326-385-8 ATS (45.9%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-4.5 at NOP) 

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 207-220 SU and  198-219-10 ATS (47.5%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-2.5 at MIN) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 160-29 SU but 82-104-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-24.5 vs UTA) 

NBA Streak Betting System #7:
Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 145-109-2 (57.1%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): PHX-CHI (o/u at 240.5), UTA-OKC (o/u at 239.5) 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 121-150 SU but 150-119-3 ATS (55.8%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO (+9.5 vs PHX), NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs ORL), UTAH (+24.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 11-45 SU and  18-34-4 ATS (34.6%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+24.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #13:
When teams on alternate streaks of at least four games go head-to-head, the teams on the losing streaks have gone 39-99 SU but 75-63 ATS (54.3%) over the last five seasons.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH (+24.5 at OKC) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 333-379-4 ATS (46.8%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 44-175 SU and  97-116-6 ATS (45.5%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 vs ORL), UTAH (+24.5 at OKC)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, ORLANDO, CHARLOTTE, LA CLIPPERS, HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHARLOTTE, DALLAS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, MILWAUKEE, ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and  non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, OKLAHOMA CITY, LA CLIPPERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-CHI, IND-CLE, CHA-MIN, UTA-OKC, LAL-DAL, LAC-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHX-CHI, IND-CLE, ORL-NOP, UTA-OKC, LAL-DAL 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – TOR-BOS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PHX-CHI, IND-CLE

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+2.1)
2. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+1.5)
3. TORONTO +9.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -24.5 (+4.7)
2. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+2.0)
3. BROOKLYN -3.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+5.4)
2. UTAH +24.5 (+4.0)
3. DALLAS +1.5 (+3.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN -3.5 (+1.6)
2. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-MIN OVER 226.5 (+1.0)
2. TOR-BOS OVER 220.5 (+0.7)
3. HOU-GSW OVER 226.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). WSH-BKN UNDER 230.5 (-2.7)
ORL-NOP UNDER 237.5 (-2.7)
3. LAC-SAC UNDER 228.5 (-2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +3.5 (+2.6)
2. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+0.8)
3. TORONTO +9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -24.5 (+3.7)
2. CLEVELAND -15.5 (+2.2)
3. LA CLIPPERS -12.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: TOR-BOS OVER 220.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ORL-NOP UNDER 237.5 (-3.7)
LAC-SAC UNDER 228.5 (-3.7)
3. WSH-BKN UNDER 230.5 (-3.5)

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