The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 14, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 98-64-1 ATS (60.5%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at IND) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 16-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-POR (o/u at 234.5) 

* Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 44-13 Over (77.2%) surge in the last 57 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-BKN (spread +1.5, total 217.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 17-34 SU and 16-32-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last four seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at BKN), SACRAMENTO (+12.5 at MIN), NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at CHI) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 44-13 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 65-26 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-IND (o/u at 233.5), CHA-CLE (o/u at 231.5), PHI-ATL (o/u at 224.5), MIL-BKN (o/u at 217.5), SAC-MIN (o/u at 233.5), NOP-CHI (o/u at 248.5) 

* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 29-15 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): MIL-BKN (o/u at 217.5), SAC-MIN (o/u at 233.5), NOP-CHI (o/u at 248.5), GSW-POR (o/u at 234.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 199-256 SU but 256-191-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at POR) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 16-2 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
* GOLDEN STATE is 123-93 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Dec 2021
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-POR (o/u at 234.5)

* ATLANTA is 127-89 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
* PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since Nov 2024
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 224.5) 

* BROOKLYN is 12-6 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-BKN (o/u at 217.5) 

* CHARLOTTE is 141-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-CLE (o/u at 231.5)

* INDIANA is 24-7 SU and ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-9.5 vs WSH) 

* PHOENIX is 11-14 SU and 7-17 ATS playing in ALL 3rd in 8+ Days games since Oct 2021
Trend Match (FADE): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs LAL)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(521) LA LAKERS at (522) PHOENIX
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the Lakers-Suns divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAL-PHX (o/u at 231.5) 

(569) WASHINGTON at (570) INDIANA
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the WSH-IND series at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-IND (o/u at 234.5)

(571) CHARLOTTE at (572) CLEVELAND
* Underdogs are 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 of the CHA-CLE series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (+11.5 at CLE) 

(573) PHILADELPHIA at (574) ATLANTA
* Over the total is 8-1 in the 76ers-Hawks series since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 225.5) 

(575) MILWAUKEE at (576) BROOKLYN
* BROOKLYN is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games with Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+1.5 vs MIL) 

(577) SACRAMENTO at (578) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Kings-Twolves series at Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 at MIN) 

(579) NEW ORLEANS at (580) CHICAGO
* Over the total is 11-3 in the last 14 of the NOP-CHI non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-CHI (o/u at 247.5) 

(581) GOLDEN STATE at (582) PORTLAND
* Over the total is 4-1 in the Warriors-Trail Blazers set since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-POR (o/u at 235.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5-points or less with totals < 230 are on a 44-13 Over (77.2%) surge in the last 57 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-BKN (spread +1.5, total 217.5)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-187 (55.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 325-242 (57.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHA-CLE (spread -11.5, total 231.5), SAC-MIN (spread -12.5, total 234.5) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 175-100 SU but 128-143-4 ATS (47.2%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 105-126 ATS (45.5%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-4.5 vs PHI) 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 98-64-1 ATS (60.5%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 at IND) 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 155-57 SU and 125-85-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 212 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PHOENIX vs LAL, +1.5 CURRENTLY 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 165-72 SU and 136-97-4 ATS (58.4%) (sub-system: 80-24 SU and 65-35-4 ATS (65%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA LAKERS (-1.5 at PHX), GOLDEN STATE (-4.5 at POR) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 288-158 SU but just 186-247-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-4.5 vs NOP) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 161-194 SU and 156-195-4 ATS (44.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (+4.5 at CHI) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 360-316 (53.3%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-CLE (o/u at 231.5), PHI-ATL (o/u at 225.5) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 77-55 SU & 79-52-1 ATS (60.3%) in their last 132 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs LAL) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads & totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and a ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, CHARLOTTE, MILWAUKEE, GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference & non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and a ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA ML, MINNESOTA ML, CHICAGO ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHA-CLE, SAC-MIN, GSW-POR 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – NOP-CHI 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-MIN 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+2.2)
2(tie). WASHINGTON +9.5 (+1.3)
BROOKLYN +1.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+2.5)
2. CHICAGO -3.5 (+1.7)
3. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+0.6)
NEW ORLEANS +3.5 (+0.6)
3. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+1.8)
2. MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-ATL OVER 224.5 (+1.7)
2. GSW-POR OVER 234.5 (+1.5)
3. WSH-IND OVER 233.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-PHX UNDER 231.5 (-5.7)
2. NOP-CHI UNDER 248.5 (-2.8)
3. MIL-BKN UNDER 217.5 (-1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+1.3)
2. BROOKLYN +1.5 (+1.2)
3. WASHINGTON +9.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS -1.5 (+2.8)
2. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+2.5)
3. CLEVELAND -11.5 (+2.4) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-CLE OVER 231.5 (+4.5)
2. PHI-ATL OVER 224.5 (+3.0)
3. GSW-POR OVER 234.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-PHX UNDER 231.5 (-7.3)
2. NOP-CHI UNDER 248.5 (-5.8)
3. SAC-MIN UNDER 233.5 (-2.6)

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