The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* Over the total is on an extended 12-1-1 run in the Spurs-Wizards series in Washington D.C.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-WSH (o/u at 237.5) 

* HOUSTON is 1-23 SU and 7-16-1 ATS playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-11.5 at SAC) 

* NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 107-67 SU and 101-70-3 ATS (59.1%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3.5 at BKN) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on road in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 15-24 SU and 15-23-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over last four Seasons
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-3.5 at BKN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 15-6 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 31-13 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last three seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BKN (o/u at 215.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in OneDayRest scenario are 56-18 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing on road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 26-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4thStraightHome games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-MIN (o/u at 226.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario are 77-31 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in10+ Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 141-81 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-NYK (o/u at 235.5), MIL-MIN (o/u at 226.5)
* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 45-21 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BKN (o/u at 215.5), MIA-NYK (o/u at 235.5), HOU-SAC (o/u at 222.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 22-10 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-NYK (o/u at 235.5), HOU-SAC (o/u at 222.5)

* ATLANTA is 128-89 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Nov 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-ATL (o/u at 247.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 20-9 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAC (o/u at 222.5) 

* HOUSTON is 1-23 SU and 7-16-1 ATS playing its 4th Straight Road game since May 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 5-0 SU and ATS vs. teams in 4th Road in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+11.5 vs HOU) 

* SAN ANTONIO is 7-17 SU and 6-18 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since Jan 2025* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 32-31 SU and 26-37 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 51-41 SU and 56-34 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
Systems/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SAN ANTONIO (-16.5 at WSH)

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 52-40 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-WSH (o/u at 237.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(501) CHICAGO at (502) ATLANTA
* Underdogs are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the CHI-ATL series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+5.5 at ATL) 

(503) TORONTO at (504) BROOKLYN
* Umder the total is 11-3 in the last 14 of the Raptors-Nets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BKN (o/u at 215.5) 

(505) MIAMI at (506) NEW YORK
* Home teams are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in the last 13 of the MIA-NYK set
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-7.5 vs MIA) 

(507) MILWAUKEE at (508) MINNESOTA
* MILWAUKEE is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with non-conference foe MIN
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+11.5 at MIN) 

(509) SAN ANTONIO at (510) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is on an extended 12-1-1 run in the Spurs-Wizards series in Washington D.C.
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-WSH (o/u at 237.5) 

(511) HOUSTON at (512) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the HOU-SAC series at Golden1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-SAC (o/u at 222.5) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 40-128 SU and 70-93-5 ATS (42.9%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+3.5 vs TOR) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5-points or less with totals < 230 are on a 45-17 Over (72.6%) surge in the L62 games.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-BKN (spread +3.5, total 215.5) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 125-100 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 231-188 (55.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 326-245 (57.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-MIN (spread -11.5, total 226.5), SAS-WSH (spread +15.5, total 237.5), HOU-SAC (spread +11.5, total 223.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 14-38 SU and 17-33-2 ATS (34%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+3.5 vs TOR) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off of a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 92-59-1 (60.9%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-WSH (o/u at 237.5) 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 166-74 SU and 137-99-4 ATS (58.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3.5 at BKN) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 317-245 SU but 252-295-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): WASHINGTON (+15.5 vs SAS) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 165-198 SU and 160-199-4 ATS (44.6%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-11.5 vs MIL) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 107-67 SU and 101-70-3 ATS (59.1%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-3.5 at BKN) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 363-320 (53.1%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-MIN (o/u at 226.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 319-332 SU and 292-351-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-11.5 at SAC) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, MINNESOTA ML, WASHINGTON ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-NYK 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UNDER – MIA-NYK, SAS-WSH 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit less than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 396-334 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 386-348 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – TOR-BKN 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+2.3)
2. WASHINGTON +16.5 (+1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -11.5 (+3.2)
2. ATLANTA -4.5 (+2.2)
3. NEW YORK -7.5 (+1.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +11.5 (+3.4)
2. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+2.9)
3. MILWAUKEE +11.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -16.5 (+3.1)
2. ATLANTA -4.5 (+1.2)
3. NEW YORK -7.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-SAC OVER 222.5 (+3.5)
2. TOR-BKN OVER 215.5 (+1.9)
3. MIL-MIN OVER 226.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: CHI-ATL UNDER 247.5 (-1.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +16.5 (+1.3)
2. BROOKLYN +3.5 (+0.3) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -11.5 (+2.5)
2. ATLANTA -4.5 (+1.3)
3. MINNESOTA -11.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-SAC OVER 222.5 (+4.2)
2. TOR-BKN OVER 215.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-ATL UNDER 247.5 (-3.2)
2. MIL-MIN UNDER 226.5 (-1.8)
3. MIA-NYK UNDER 235.5 (-1.0)

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