The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 28, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 167-201 SU and 162-202-4 ATS (44.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs MEM) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 17-5 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-OKC (o/u at 225.5) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: SAC-LAL UNDER 232.5 (projections have total at 229.9) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 202-261 SU but 260-195-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+15.5 at OKC) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 17-5 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-OKC (o/u at 225.5) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 85-58 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-LAC (o/u at 224.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(537) PHILADELPHIA at (538) OKLAHOMA CITY
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the PHI-OKC non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 vs PHI) 

(539) GOLDEN STATE at (540) TORONTO
* Over the total is 6-2 in the Warriors-Raptors series since start of the 2021-22 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-TOR (o/u at 224.5) 

(541) MEMPHIS at (542) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 8-2 in the Grizzlies-Wizards set in Washington D.C. since December 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MEM-WSH (o/u at 240.5)

(543) BOSTON at (544) PORTLAND
* BOSTON is on runs of 6-0 ATS in the last six of the overall series and 8-1 ATS in the last nine road trips to Portland
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7.5 at POR)

* Over the total is 10-2 in the last 12 of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-POR (o/u at 229.5) 

(545) DETROIT at (546) LA CLIPPERS
* Underdogs are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Pistons-Clippers non-conference set in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 vs DET) 

(547) SACRAMENTO at (548) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS have won and covered all five meetings with divisional foe Sacramento since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-13.5 vs SAC) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 126-100 (55.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 232-190 (55%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 327-249 (56.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-OKC (spread -15.5, total 226.5)
UNDER – SAC-LAL (spread -13.5, total 232.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 318-247 SU but 254-296-15 ATS (46.2%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs MEM) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 167-201 SU and 162-202-4 ATS (44.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 vs MEM) 

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 322-335 SU and 295-354-8 ATS (45.5%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-7.5 at POR), LA CLIPPERS (+3.5 vs DET)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 186-198 SU and 173-201-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (-7.5 at POR)

Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 187-159 SU and 192-144-10 ATS (57.1%) run.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 at LAL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 89-20 SU and 60-46-3 ATS (56.6%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-7.5 at POR)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results: 

–  Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
–  Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
–  Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
–  Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
–  Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
–  Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, BOSTON, MEMPHIS, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%).  This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, LA CLIPPERS, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, BOSTON, MEMPHIS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BOS-POR, DET-LAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – MEM-WSH 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: WASHINGTON +7.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.8)
2. BOSTON -7.5 (+1.2)
3. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +7.5 (+2.4)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+1.9) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+3.6)
2. LA LAKERS -13.5 (+2.9)
3. MEMPHIS -7.5 (+2.6) 

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-OKC OVER 225.5 (+2.6)
2. DET-LAC OVER 224.5 (+1.3)
3. BOS-POR OVER 229.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-LAL UNDER 232.5 (-1.5)
2. GSW-TOR UNDER 224.5 (-0.4) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +7.5 (+0.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS +3.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE -4.5 (+1.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+1.3)
3. BOSTON -7.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-OKC OVER 225.5 (+3.8)
2. DET-LAC OVER 224.5 (+0.9)
3. MEM-WSH OVER 240.5 (+0.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-LAL UNDER 232.5 (-2.6)
2. BOS-POR UNDER 229.5 (-1.0)
3. GSW-TOR UNDER 224.5 (-0.1)

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