The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, December 7, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-12 Over (77.8%) surge in the last 54 games.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-TOR (spread +3.5, total 224.5), GSW-CHI (spread +1.5, total 227.5)

NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 287-157 SU but just 186-245-13 ATS (43.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-10.5 at CHA)

* Over the total is 11-2-1 in the OKC-UTA divisional set since April 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 236.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* ORLANDO is 107-79 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since Mar 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-NYK (o/u at 230.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 85-56 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): POR-MEM (o/u at 231.5)

* CHARLOTTE is 140-100 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-CHA (o/u at 233.5)

* PHILADELPHIA is 7-17 SU and 9-15 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Nov 2024
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs LAL)

* TORONTO is 19-13 SU and 19-12 ATS playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Oct 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+3.5 vs BOS)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 75-13 SU and 56-29-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since Apr 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at UTA)

* UTAH is 91-60 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since Nov 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 236.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(549) ORLANDO at (550) NEW YORK
* ORLANDO has won and covered all three meetings with New York in 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-1.5 vs ORL)

(551) BOSTON at (552) TORONTO
* Under the total is 12-3-1 in the last 16 of the BOS-TOR divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-TOR (o/u at 224.5)

(553) DENVER at (554) CHARLOTTE
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between Denver and Charlotte, but did go Over last time
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-CHA (o/u at 233.5)

(555) PORTLAND at (556) MEMPHIS
* PORTLAND is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight trips to Memphis 
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+1.5 at MEM)

(557) GOLDEN STATE at (558) CHICAGO
* GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games with Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at CHI)

* Over the total is 5-0 in the GSW-CHI non-conference series since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-CHI (o/u at 227.5)

(559) LA LAKERS at (560) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 SU and ATS in the last seven games hosting LA Lakers
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+4.5 vs LAL)

(561) OKLAHOMA CITY at (562) UTAH
* Over the total is 11-2-1 in the OKC-UTA divisional set since April 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 236.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 11-41 SU and 20-30-2 ATS (40%) in their last 52 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA vs LAL, +4.5 CURRENTLY

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Short home underdogs of 4.5 points or less with totals < 230 are on a 42-12 Over (77.8%) surge in the last 54 games.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): BOS-TOR (spread +3.5, total 224.5), GSW-CHI (spread +1.5, total 227.5)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #8:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 124-100 (55.4%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 230-186 (55.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 322-241 (57.2%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER- DEN-CHA (spread +10.5, total 233.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of 5 points or less have gone 14-37 SU and 17-32-2 ATS (34.7%) since late-April 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+3.5 vs BOS)

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 14-17 SU and 23-8 ATS (74.2%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+9.5 vs OKC)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.

Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 86-59 SU and 76-67-2 ATS (53.1%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-10.5 at CHA)

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 287-157 SU but just 186-245-13 ATS (43.2%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-10.5 at CHA)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 316-241 SU but 250-292-15 ATS (46.1%) over the last seven seasons. 
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 vs DEN)

Upset wins over conference opponents leads to next game stumbles versus non-conference
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 159-193 SU and 153-195-4 ATS (44%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+10.5 vs DEN)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 357-315 (53.1%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): POR-MEM (o/u at 231.5), OKC-UTA (o/u at 236.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 315-329 SU and 289-347-8 ATS (45.4%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-1.5 vs ORL), BOSTON (-3.5 at TOR)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 179-193 SU and 167-195-10 ATS (46.1%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-3.5 at TOR), DENVER (-10.5 at CHA)

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 167-109 SU and 158-111-7 ATS (58.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-1.5 at CHI)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5-points or more, going 88-19 SU and 59-45-3 ATS (56.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at UTA)

NBA Streak Betting System #4:
Teams having won their last six games and are favored by >= 9-points versus a team averaging 114 PPG or more have gone just 30-9 SU but 13-26 ATS (33.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season. Over the total is also 27-12 (69.2%) in these games.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at UTA)
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-UTA (o/u at 236.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 93-100 SU but 110-81-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+1.5 vs GSW)

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an eight-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 69-94-1 ATS (42.3%) in the next game, including 31-47 ATS (39.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at UTA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:

  • Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
  • Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
  • Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
  • Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
  • Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
  • Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DENVER, PORTLAND, LA LAKERS, OKLAHOMA CITY

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, PORTLAND, CHICAGO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, LA LAKERS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Match (PLAY): PORTLAND

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): OVER – POR-MEM

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+2.5)
2. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+0.3)
3. PORTLAND +1.5 (+0.2)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -2.5 (+2.8)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+1.5)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +1.5 (+3.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +10.5 (+0.2)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -2.5 (+3.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+3.1)
3. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+0.5)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-NYK OVER 229.5 (+2.8)
2(tie). DEN-CHA OVER 233.5 (+0.6)
GSW-CHI OVER 227.5 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-TOR UNDER 226.5 (-2.2)
2. POR-MEM UNDER 231.5 (-0.1)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO +1.5 (+1.0)
2. PORTLAND +1.5 (+0.9)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -9.5 (+3.7)
2. DENVER -10.5 (+2.4)
3. BOSTON -2.5 (+1.2)

Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DEN-CHA OVER 233.5 (+5.2)
2. ORL-NYK OVER 229.5 (+4.9)
3. GSW-CHI OVER 227.5 (+1.1)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-PHI UNDER 233.5 (-2.6)
2. OKC-UTA UNDER 236.5 (-0.9)

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