Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, February 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Underdogs are a perfect 12-0 ATS in the Thunder-Nuggets divisional rivalry at Ball Arena since February 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+7.5 vs OKC)
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 48-15 SU and 43-18-2 ATS (70.5%) in their last 63 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 at WSH)
* NBA teams playing on road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 28-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-BOS (o/u at 217.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in OneDayRest scenario are 60-19 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing on the road in 4th in 10+ Days scenario are 28-9 Under the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last two seasons
Systems Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-BOS (o/u at 217.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 24-5 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd Home in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* DENVER is 86-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in OKC-DEN (o/u at 222.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 56-48 SU and 60-42 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAS)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 57-47 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
* ORLANDO is 116-85 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in ORL-SAS (o/u at 223.5)
* UTAH is 98-68 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 20’22
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-TOR (o/u at 234.5)
* BROOKLYN is 11-24 SU but 22-12-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+12.5 at DET)
* WASHINGTON is 5-39 SU and 14-30 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+2.5 vs SAC)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 99-73 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER): SAC-WSH (o/u at 228.5), BKN-DET (o/u at 215.5), LAL-NYK (o/u at 229.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(531) MILWAUKEE at (532) BOSTON
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Bucks-Celtics series
Trend Match (PLAY): MIL-BOS (o/u at 217.5)
(533) ORLANDO at (534) SAN ANTONIO
* Over the total is 5-2 in the last seven of the Magic-Spurs non-conference set at San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-SAS (o/u at 223.5)
(535) CHICAGO at (536) MIAMI
* Underdogs are on an extended 12-4 ATS run in the CHI-MIA series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+4.5 at MIA)
(537) UTAH at (538) TORONTO
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Jazz-Raptors non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-TOR (o/u at 234.5)
(539) SACRAMENTO at (540) WASHINGTON
* Under the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of the Kings-Wizards series in Washington D.C.
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-WSH (o/u at 228.5)
(541) BROOKLYN at (542) DETROIT
* DETROIT is on a 5-2 SU and 7-0 ATS surge versus Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-12.5 vs BKN)
(543) LA LAKERS at (544) NEW YORK
* Road teams are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the LAL-NYK cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+4.5 at NYK)
(545) LA CLIPPERS at (546) PHOENIX
* PHOENIX is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six of the divisional set with LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs LAC)
(547) CLEVELAND at (548) PORTLAND
* Road teams have covered all six meetings between Cleveland and Portland since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-3.5 at POR)
(549) OKLAHOMA CITY at (550) DENVER
* Underdogs are a perfect 12-0 ATS in the OKC-DEN divisional rivalry at Ball Arena since February 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (+7.5 vs OKC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 177-67 SU and 142-101-1 ATS (58.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 132-103 SU and 134-98-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 93-37 SU and 80-49-1 ATS (62%).
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 134-105 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 246-206 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 330-261 (55.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-BOS (spread -13.5, total 216.5), UTA-TOR (spread -10.5, total 235.5), BKN-DET (spread -12.5, total 215.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on an 18-18 SU and 27-9 ATS (75%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (+7.5 vs OKC)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:
In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 28-13 (68.3%) rate in the last 41 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): OKC-DEN (o/u at 222.5)
Western Northwest Division Betting System #3:
In Western Northwest divisional games, favorites on two days rest or more are 8-9 SU and 3-14 ATS (17.6%) since the start of the 2024 playoffs.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at DEN)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 93-63 SU and 84-70-2 ATS (54.5%) in the follow-up contest since 2018, including 34-17 ATS (66.7%) as underdogs.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAS)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 332-253 SU but 267-303-15 ATS (46.8%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs LAL)
Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 110-69 SU and 103-73-3 ATS (58.5%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-7.5 at DEN)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 379-331 (53.4%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BKN-DET (o/u at 215.5), ORL-SAS (o/u at 223.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 336-345 SU and 308-365-8 ATS (45.8%) in the next game over the last five seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): ORLANDO (+5.5 at SAS), CHICAGO (+4.5 at MIA), DENVER (+7.5 vs OKC)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 194-208 SU and 183-209-10 ATS (46.7%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+4.5 at MIA)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 105-70 (60%) rate since 2021, including 50-27 (64.9%) to the Over in the last 77.
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-SAS (o/u at 223.5)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 89-61 SU and 92-57-1 ATS (61.7%) in their last 150 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+1.5 vs LAC)
ALSO WATCH FOR CHICAGO at MIA, +4.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #6:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been fantastic in the rare role of playing as road favorites, going 48-15 SU and 43-18-2 ATS (70.5%) in their last 63 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 107-115 SU but 127-93-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (+10.5 at TOR), PORTLAND (+3.5 vs CLE)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 293-334-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 37-150 SU and 83-98-6 ATS (45.9%).
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 at WSH)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SACRAMENTO, ORLANDO, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHOENIX, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, ORLANDO, NEW YORK, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-MIA, ORL-SAS, LAL-NYK, CLE-POR, OKC-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-MIA, UTA-TOR, CLE-POR
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – MIL-BOS, LAC-PHX, BKN-DET
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHOENIX +1.5 (+1.3)
2. DENVER +7.5 (+0.9)
3. PORTLAND +3.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TORONTO -11.5 (+4.0)
2. BOSTON -12.5 (+3.9)
3. DETROIT -12.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +7.5 (+4.1)
2. PHOENIX +1.5 (+1.4)
3. WASHINGTON +2.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -12.5 (+2.2)
2. MIAMI -4.5 (+1.4)
3. NEW YORK -4.5 (+0.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAC-WSH OVER 228.5 (+1.3)
2. CHI-MIA OVER 235.5 (+1.0)
3. CLE-POR OVER 229.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORL-SAS UNDER 223.5 (-1.4)
2. MIL-BOS UNDER 217.5 (-0.8)
3. LAL-NYK UNDER 229.5 (-0.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +7.5 (+0.6)
2. PHOENIX +1.5 (+0.5)
3. PORTLAND +3.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -12.5 (+3.4)
2. TORONTO -11.5 (+3.0)
3. DETROIT -12.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-TOR OVER 234.5 (+3.6)
2. SAC-WSH OVER 228.5 (+1.2)
3. CHI-MIA OVER 235.5 (+1.1)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAL-NYK UNDER 229.5 (-3.3)
2. MIL-BOS UNDER 217.5 (-2.1)
3. ORL-SAS UNDER 223.5 (-1.9)
