Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 18, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 54-65 SU and 42-75-2 ATS (35.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1.5 vs CHA)
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Nets-Bulls series in the Windy City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-CHI (o/u at 222.5)
* PORTLAND is 29-30 SU but 40-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at SAC)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing in 2 Days Rest scenario were 41-25 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-MEM (o/u at 230.5)
* BROOKLYN is 11-19 SU but 20-9-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+6.5 at CHI)
* DENVER is 86-53 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-DEN (o/u at 228.5)
* HOUSTON is 120-96 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-HOU (o/u at 231.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-46 SU and 59-39 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 at LAL)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 54-46 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAL (o/u at 223.5)
* PORTLAND is 29-30 SU but 40-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since Oct ’23
* SACRAMENTO is 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+2.5 at SAC)
* PORTLAND is 71-39 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-SAC (o/u at 227.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(549) ORLANDO vs (550) MEMPHIS
* ORLANDO is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings with Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-3.5 vs MEM)
(551) NEW ORLEANS at (552) HOUSTON
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Pelicans-Rockets divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-HOU (o/u at 231.5)
(553) BROOKLYN at (554) CHICAGO
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the BKN-CHI series in the Windy City
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-CHI (o/u at 222.5)
* Home teams are also 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-6.5 vs BKN)
(555) CHARLOTTE at (556) DENVER
* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Hornets-Nuggets non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHA-DEN (o/u at 228.5)
(557) PORTLAND at (558) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six of the POR-SAC series at Golden 1 Center
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-2.5 vs POR)
(559) TORONTO at (560) LA LAKERS
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the TOR-LAL non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAL (o/u at 223.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:
NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 92-37 SU and 79-49-1 ATS (61.7%).
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CHARLOTTE at DEN, +1.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 129-103 (55.6%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 241-201 (54.5%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 328-257 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY): UNDER – NOP-HOU (spread -13.5, total 231.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5-points or more are on a 43-12 SU and 34-21 ATS (61.8%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-13.5 vs NOP)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 106-68-1 ATS (60.9%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+1.5 vs TOR)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 170-79 SU and 140-105-4 ATS (57.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-1.5 at LAL)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 104-68 (60.5%) rate since 2021, including 49-25 (66.2%) to the Over in the last 74.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-LAL (o/u at 223.5)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 54-65 SU and 42-75-2 ATS (35.9%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-1.5 vs CHA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:25 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 170-136 ATS (55.6%) over the last three seasons, good for +20.4 units of profit and an ROI of 6.7%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, SACRAMENTO, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning the number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January ‘23, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ORLANDO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): ORL-MEM, POR-SAC, TOR-LAL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-MEM
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +2.5 (+2.1)
2. CHARLOTTE +1.5 (+1.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -3.5 (+2.3)
2. HOUSTON -13.5 (+1.2)
3. TORONTO -1.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +2.5 (+1.4)
2. BROOKLYN +6.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ORLANDO -3.5 (+1.2)
HOUSTON -13.5 (+1.2)
3. TORONTO -1.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-DEN OVER 228.5 (+3.7)
2. NOP-HOU OVER 231.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-SAC UNDER 228.5 (-6.9)
2. BKN-CHI UNDER 222.5 (-1.0)
3. ORL-MEM UNDER 230.5 (-0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PORTLAND +2.5 (+3.3)
2. CHARLOTTE +1.5 (+1.5)
3. LA LAKERS +1.5 (+1.1)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -13.5 (+3.0)
2. ORLANDO -3.5 (+1.6)
3. CHICAGO -6.5 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-DEN OVER 228.5 (+5.0)
2. NOP-HOU OVER 231.5 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-SAC UNDER 228.5 (-5.5)
2. TOR-LAL UNDER 223.5 (-1.6)
3. BKN-CHI UNDER 222.5 (-1.1)
