Today’s NBA Betting Trends
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, January 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 169-111 SU and 160-113-7 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)
* MINNESOTA is 20-7 Over the total playing in the Away2Away back2back scenario since Dec ’20
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-WSH (o/u at 235.5)
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the DEN-BKN non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at BKN)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 56-43 SU and 54-44 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at MIA)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 88-61 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
* BROOKLYN is 13-7 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since Feb 2025
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-BKN (o/u at 224.5)
* LA LAKERS are 32-10 SU and 30-12 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs MEM)
* MINNESOTA is 20-7 Over the total playing in the back-to-back away scenario since Dec 2020
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 88-61 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-WSH (o/u at 235.5)
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 78-14 SU and 59-30-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)
* ORLANDO is 112-81 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-ORL (o/u at 227.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(565) DETROIT at (566) CLEVELAND
* Under the total is 11-2 in the Pistons-Cavs divisional rivalry since start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 237.5)
(567) INDIANA at (568) ORLANDO
* Underdogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight of the IND-ORL series
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (+6.5 at ORL)
(569) DENVER at (570) BROOKLYN
* Favorites are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the DEN-BKN non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-2.5 at BKN)
(571) MINNESOTA at (572) WASHINGTON
* WASHINGTON is on an 11-1 ATS surge versus Minnesota
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+9.5 vs MIN)
(573) NEW ORLEANS at (574) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 16-4 ATS in the last 20 meetings with New Orleans
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-8.5 vs NOP)
(575) OKLAHOMA CITY at (576) PHOENIX
* OKLAHOMA CITY is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games versus Phoenix
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)
(577) MILWAUKEE at (578) SACRAMENTO
* Over the total is on an extended 24-2 run in the MIL-SAC non-conference series (although just 2-2 in the last four)
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-SAC (o/u at 228.5)
(579) MEMPHIS at (580) LA LAKERS
* LA LAKERS are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games when hosting Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-5.5 vs MEM)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Eastern Central Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Central divisional games, home favorites in the -0.5 to -10 line range are on a 24-16 Over (60%) run since April 2024.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CLE (o/u at 237.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 104-66-1 ATS (61.2%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+5.5 at LAL)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 295-163 SU but just 191-254-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at SAC)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 169-111 SU and 160-113-7 ATS (58.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)
High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 82-56 SU and 84-53-1 ATS (61.3%) in their last 138 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DETROIT at CLE, +4.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 89-21 SU and 60-47-3 ATS (56.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-9.5 at PHX)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 98-107 SU but 117-86-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at MIA)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 286-329-4 ATS (46.5%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been terrible in road games, going 34-146 SU and 79-95-6 ATS (45.4%).
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 at ORL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
- Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
- Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
- Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
- Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
- Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
- Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANA, DENVER, OKLAHOMA CITY, MILWAUKEE, MEMPHIS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last three seasons, that group produced a 94-70 ATS record (57.3%). This has netted +17 units and an ROI of 10.4%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 164 games was only about 4.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, MEMPHIS
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +4.5 (+2.1)
2. PHOENIX +10.5 (+1.7)
3. SACRAMENTO +7.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ORLANDO -6.5 (+2.7)
2. MIAMI -8.5 (+2.3)
3. DENVER -2.5 (+1.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +8.5 (+1.7)
2. DETROIT +4.5 (+1.4)
3. PHOENIX +10.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -2.5 (+1.8)
2. ORLANDO -6.5 (+1.2)
3. MINNESOTA -9.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MIA OVER 243.5 (+2.4)
2. DEN-BKN OVER 224.5 (+2.3)
3. DET-CLE OVER 237.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-PHX UNDER 230.5 (-2.4)
2. MEM-LAL UNDER 240.5 (-1.9)
3. IND-ORL UNDER 227.5 (-1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +4.5 (+3.0)
2. SACRAMENTO +7.5 (+1.6)
3. PHOENIX +10.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -2.5 (+3.5)
2. MIAMI -8.5 (+2.9)
3. MINNESOTA -9.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-MIA OVER 243.5 (+4.7)
2. MIN-WSH OVER 235.5 (+2.9)
3. DEN-BKN OVER 224.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKC-PHX UNDER 230.5 (-2.3)
2. MEM-LAL UNDER 240.5 (-2.1)
3. IND-ORL UNDER 227.5 (-1.1)
