The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Sunday, March 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NEW ORLEANS is on an absurd 13-6 SU and 17-2 ATS streak versus LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at LAC) 

* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more playing as divisional underdogs are 10-42 SU and 16-32-4 ATS (33.3%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIL) 

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 336-260 SU but 269-312-15 ATS (46.3%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 46-76-1 ATS (37.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+1.5 vs SAS), BOSTON (-9.5 vs PHI), LA LAKERS (-12.5 vs SAC) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 109-80 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 228.5) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away game scenario are 18-34 SU and 21-30-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): PORTLAND (+5.5 at ATL), NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at LAC) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 52-27 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): POR-ATL (o/u at 236.5), NOP-LAC (o/u at 222.5) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 220-276 SU but 278-210-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MEMPHIS (+1.5 at IND), MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at CHI), DETROIT (-4.5 at ORL) 

* BROOKLYN is 22-8 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-BKN (o/u at 222.5) 

* DETROIT is 15-3 Under the total (83.3%) as a favorite of -1.5 to -5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-ORL (spread DET -4.5, total 223.5)

* LA CLIPPERS is 25-18 SU and 12-31 ATS playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since May 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 48-21 SU and 45-22-2 ATS vs. teams in 4thin6Days games over the last three seasons
* NBA teams playing on home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Road in 4 Days games over the last four seasons
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs NOP) 

* LA CLIPPERS are 18-10 Under the total playing in 4thin10+Days games since Jan ’24
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 18-10 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 4 Days games over the last two seasons
* NBA teams playing in 3rd in 4 Days scenario are 60-39 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
Systems/Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NOP-LAC (o/u at 222.5) 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 92-19 SU and 68-40-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-15.5 at DAL)

* PORTLAND is 32-30 SU but 43-17 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since October 2023
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away game scenario are 30-47 SU and 30-46-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PORTLAND (+5.5 at ATL)

* PORTLAND is 72-41 Under the total playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since April 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-ATL (o/u at 236.5)

* CHICAGO is 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS (13.3%) in its last 15 games
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIL)

* MILWAUKEE is 20-8 Under the total (71.4%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-CHI (o/u at 228.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in 2 Days Rest scenario are 16-14 SU and 19-11 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 at LAL) 

* LA LAKERS are 11-2 Over the total (84.6%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-LAL (o/u at 232.5) 

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(501) SAN ANTONIO at (502) NEW YORK
* Over the total is 7-1 in the Spurs-Knicks non-conference series since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-NYK (o/u at 227.5) 

(503) CLEVELAND at (504) BROOKLYN
* CLEVELAND is 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS in their last seven visits to the Barclays Center
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-11.5 at BKN) 

(505) MILWAUKEE at (506) CHICAGO
* MILWAUKEE is on a 5-1 SU and ATS surge versus divisional foe Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-3.5 at CHI) 

(507) MINNESOTA at (508) DENVER
* Underdogs are 6-1 SU and ATS in the MIN-DEN divisional rivalry at Ball Arena since the start of their 2024 Western Conference Playoff series
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+3.5 at DEN) 

(509) MEMPHIS at (510) INDIANA
* MEMPHIS is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games with non-conference opponent Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+1.5 at IND) 

(511) PHILADELPHIA at (512) BOSTON
* Home teams are 5-1 ATS in the 76ers-Celtics divisional set since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-9.5 vs PHI) 

(513) DETROIT at (514) ORLANDO
* ORLANDO is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six instances of hosting Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 vs DET) 

(515) PORTLAND at (516) ATLANTA
* PORTLAND is 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (+5.5 at ATL) 

(517) OKLAHOMA CITY at (518) DALLAS
* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Thunder-Mavs series at American Airlines Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DAL (o/u at 233.5)

 (519) NEW ORLEANS at (520) LA CLIPPERS
* NEW ORLEANS is on an absurd 13-6 SU and 17-2 ATS streak versus LAC
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at LAC) 

(521) SACRAMENTO at (522) LA LAKERS
* Underdogs are on a 7-2 SU and ATS surge in the SAC-LAL divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 at LAL)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on some various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 185-68 SU and 147-105-1 ATS (58.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR DENVER vs MIN (-3.5 CURRENTLY) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:
In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 138-108 SU and 140-103-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+1.5 at IND)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-109 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 250-210 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 343-266 (56.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CLE-BKN (spread +11.5, total 222.5), OKC-DAL (spread +15.5, total 233.5)
UNDER – SAC-LAL (spread -12.5, total 232.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, single-digit favorites have gone 96-41 SU and 80-64-3 ATS (55.6%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-9.5 vs PHI)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quickly
NBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 160-61 SU and 130-89-2 ATS (59.4%) in their L221 tries.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs NOP) 

Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 305-171 SU but just 198-265-13 ATS (42.8%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-4.5 at ORL) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 336-260 SU but 269-312-15 ATS (46.3%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 46-76-1 ATS (37.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+1.5 vs SAS), BOSTON (-9.5 vs PHI), LA LAKERS (-12.5 vs SAC)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 175-217 SU and 169-219-4 ATS (43.6%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (+1.5 at IND)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more FREE THROW ATTEMPTS trended UNDER the total the next game, 391-338 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): POR-ATL (o/u at 236.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 342-353 SU and 316-371-8 ATS (46%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (+1.5 vs SAS), BOSTON (-9.5 vs PHI) 

Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 179-120 SU and 168-124-7 ATS (57.5%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (+8.5 at LAC) 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 95-66 SU and 97-63-1 ATS (60.6%) in their L161 tries.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.

NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 112-130 SU but 134-106-3 ATS (55.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more as divisional underdogs are 10-42 SU and 16-32-4 ATS (33.3%) since April 2022.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 305-349-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 at NYK), CHICAGO (+3.5 vs MIL), BROOKLYN (+11.5 vs CLE) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 74-98-1 ATS (43%) in the next game, including 35-49 ATS (41.7%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-1.5 at NYK) 

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN ANTONIO, CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, ORLANDO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, ORLANDO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, LA LAKERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, CHICAGO ML, DENVER ML, ATLANTA ML, BOSTON ML, LA CLIPPERS ML, LA LAKERS ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MEM-IND, POR-ATL, PHI-BOS, NOP-LAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – SAC-LAL
UNDER – POR-ATL 

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +3.5 (+2.9)
2. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+1.6)
3. PORTLAND +5.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.6)
2. DENVER -3.5 (+0.4)
3. CLEVELAND -11.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+3.2)
2. CHICAGO +3.5 (+3.1)
3. BROOKLYN +11.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -3.5 (+1.6)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.6)
3. LA CLIPPERS -8.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NOP-LAC OVER 222.5 (+1.8)
2. MEM-IND OVER 237.5 (+1.4)
3. SAS-NYK OVER 227.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-2.3)
2. PHI-BOS UNDER 221.5 (-2.0)
3. OKC-DAL UNDER 233.5 (-1.6) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +3.5 (+2.6)
2. PORTLAND +5.5 (+1.9)
3. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). DENVER -3.5 (+0.7)
OKLAHOMA CITY -15.5 (+0.7)
3. SAN ANTONIO -1.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-BOS OVER 221.5 (+4.3)
2. SAS-NYK OVER 227.5 (+2.2)
3. NOP-LAC OVER 222.5 (+1.8) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. POR-ATL UNDER 237.5 (-2.4)
2. MIN-DEN UNDER 239.5 (-1.8)
3. OKC-DAL UNDER 233.5 (-1.6)

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